Mario’s Logs Challenge draws eleven

This week, Virginia holds a stakes doubleheader, led off by the second annual running of the Mario’s Logs Challenge. The race, for all horses three years old and up runs over ten furlongs of turf. The surface is rated as firm this week. The purse is set at $60000 for the race. Last year’s inaugural edition was a thriller, in which Woodly eked out a half length victory in a tight three horse finish. This year’s running boasts a field of 11, covering just about everything there is to offer. Males and females, young first time stakes starters to veteran former graded winners, all find a place in this one. Oddsmakers are calling it tight to the vest, assigning six of eleven entries odds of 3/1 to 8/1, and most of the rest of the field sporting odds in the teens. This race has all the markings of carrying on last year’s precedent of a thrilling finish.

PP 1) Bourbon Heights(IRE) Sired by Darazari(IRE), Trained by lobber. Bourbon Heights(IRE) is a five year old horse making his thirty fifth career start. This is his third consecutive stakes start, and is still seeking his first win at this level of competition. He has run everything from claims to stakes this year, and in eleven starts this year, he has notched a record of 3-2-3-1-0 with a best speed of 103.5 earned in an allowance win earlier this year. His last start was a ten and a half furlong stakes in Texas where he finished third, outlasting the rest of the medium field. He hasn’t tried dirt since his debut start, but seems more than comfortable on the grass. His preferred distance is the nine to ten furlong range, and he has twelve top three finishes in fourteen starts in that range. Three of six victories have come in the ten furlong range, as well as his career best speed figure. He likes to run from the head of the midpack, and he has displayed a good short close, but his hallmark is not blazing speed, but more the ability to outlast his competition. His position at the half should tell the story for him here.

PP 2) Desert Wings Sired by Green Desert, Trained by cololynx. Desert Wings is a three year old colt, a relative youngster getting his first taste of stakes competition here in his six career start. He has gone 2-1-1-0-1 in his first five, posting a career best speed of 98.7 in his last outing. That race was an A3L at nine furlongs, where he finished second in a full field, a placement he held throughout the race. He started his career with two absolute maulings on dirt, but switching to turf, he found himself able to hold his ground a lot better. He has two wins and a place since the switch. This will be his longest turf start, and he is facing a lot more speed than he is used to seeing. It may be a bit long for him in a field like this one. He is a fast starter, liking a piece of the early lead. He has shown very good stamina to hold on. He faces a tough challenge for the early lead, and has a field full of horses just waiting for him to fade. He will have to really step up here to overcome this challenge and be a factor down the stretch.

PP 3) Empire Shaker Sired by Empire Maker, Trained by almightymi. Empire Shaker is a four year old colt making his twenty seventh career start here. He has one stakes win to his credit, and some very nice showings in graded competition. He’s made thirteen starts this year, running to a 0-3-1-2-0 record, with a best speed of 104.0, one of three 100+ starts this season. His last start was an eleven furlong stakes in Ohio, where he gave one up down the stretch, finishing second. He shown himself to be a strong turf performer, with his limited dirt outings only serving to reenforce the fact. He is a distance runner, and his speed just seems to go up the longer he runs. He has more than enough stamina to hold his own at this distance. Two previous at this distance have netted him a win and a place. He has run mostly as a fast starter, and has been able to open up some big leads, though he has had trouble holding them. The shorter distance should help him with that here. He has shown some flashes of brilliance as a deep closer, and with the field here, that might be a more viable start for success. Either way, he should be right in the mix down the stretch.

PP 4) One More Affair Sired by Colonial Affair, Trained by mynosewins. One More Affair is a five year old horse making his forty first career start here. He is a veteran stakes runner, but he is still seeking his first stakes victory. He has run seven times this year, with a 1-1-1-1-1 record, and a best speed of 93.0 earned in his first start of the season. His last race was and A4n outing here in Virginia at twelve furlongs, where he finished fifth in a field of seven, starting to close too late to get any nearer. His career has been fairly evenly split between dirt and turf, and his turf speeds have been statiscally better, especially at distance. Five of six career victories have come at twelve furlongs and beyond. It seems that the longer the distance, the better he likes it. He has two career starts at this distance, both early last year, and got two third place finishes. All indications are that he prefers longer than he has here. He runs as a mid pack to deep closer, but recently his close has been repeatedly starting too late to to be effective. He is going to need better speed than he’s shown to be a factor in this race.

PP 5) Pedro Extremist Sired by Sakhee, Trained by rx7. Pedro Extremist is a three year old colt making his fourteenth start here. He has four prior stakes starts, and is still seeking that elusive first stakes win. He has ten starts for the year, compiling a record of 3-5-1-0-0 record, running a best speed of 101.3 in his last start. That start was a stakes race at this distance right here in Virginia, where he placed second by a quarter length in a hard fought thriller. He started his career with two dirt starts which would have been nearly enough for most trainers to drop him into auction, but switching to turf, he has finished out of the top three only one time in his next eleven starts. This distance seems to be his race of choice, with three wins and two places in five starts in this range. He runs as a midpack closer, and for the most part his close has been excellent. The secret for him here will be to avoid the early speed duel without falling too far out by the half. If he can stay within four to five lengths at the half, he could be a real threat down the stretch.

PP 6) Sugar Mountain Sired by Mt. Livermore, Trained by pole2pole. Sugar Mountain is the old man of this field at six years old, and he will make his thirty seventh career start in this race. He is a veteran stakes runner, but is still looking for his first victory at this level. He has raced lightly this year, making only six starts and going 0-1-1-1-2, clocking a best speed of 99.0 in his second start of the year. His last race was a thirteen furlong stakes effort in Maryland, where he finished a long out fifth out of six starters. He is another runner that started his career on dirt with a distinct lack of success. The switch to turf was a good one, and he really hit his stride toward the end of his three year old season. He has posted 100+ speeds from six furlongs out to eleven and he hasn’t displayed any overwhelming distance preference. He has a third and a fifth in two starts in this range, with a slightly better speed factor and record at eleven furlongs. He’s a midpack closer, but his close has been inconsistent at best over his last several starts. He has shown flashes of his old form a couple of times this year, but has been off more than on. If his cycle runs to form, it will be another race or two before he peaks again.

PP 7) Bubba Jess Sired by Hubba Hubba, Trained by reems11. Bubba Jess is a three year old colt making his twenty first start in this race. Fourteen of those starts have been in stakes, and he three previous stakes victories. He has eleven starts this year, and he carries a record of 2-1-1-0-1 with a best speed of 98.2 earned early this year. His last start was a stakes run on yielding turf at this distance in Georgia, where he finished second in a field of eight. This colt has spent the majority of his career on dirt, switching back in his last two starts for the first time since his two year old debut. He posted a couple of his best speeds of the year, and earned a first and second in those two starts. His last race was his first at this distance and the longest of his career. He performed well, but his best distance so far seems to be the eight fiurlong range. He runs as a stalker but has had trouble holding the pace on a fast surface. His best performances this year have all been on an off track, and it is a good bet his trainer was looking at the 50% chance of off track here. With the firm track, he’ll have a hard time handling the early pace in this one.

PP 8) Shaft Dixie Sired by Mineshaft, Trained by speedstick. Shaft Dixie is a four year old colt, taking to the track for his eleventh start here. His last four have been stakes, and he is still looking for his first win. All ten of his previous starts are this year, and he has earned a 4-1-1-3-0 record with a best speed of 104.0 earned early this year, one of four 100+ speeds. His last start was a nine and a half furlong dirt stakes in Wisconsin, where he finished ninth. This will be his first career start on turf, probably in an effort to shake him up after hitting a slight slump. That slump also coincided with the step up in class to stakes competition, though too, so turf may not be the answer. He has been mostly sticking to the nine furlong range and having success there, but his one run at this distance indicates he shouldn’t have a problem with the distance. He’s a midpack closer and his close was quite good, but he seems to have hit a wall at stakes level. There determining factor here is going to be the turf. If he can handle the softer surface, and still hold his speed, his chances are good here. He faces veteran turfers here though, and if he stumbles, there are plenty here that will take advantage of it.

PP 9) Leaning(FR) Sired by Take Risks(FR), Trained by pasingwind. Leaning(FR) is the only filly here to go up against the boys. She is three years old making her eleventh start. This will be her first stakes effort. Her first ten starts have seen her go 1-0-3-1-0 with a best speed of 85.9, earned two starts back. Her last outing was an A*225 in Jamaica at this distance, where she finished third in a field of six. Her speeds have been comparable on both surfaces, and she doesn’t display a strong preference for either surface. She seems to be comfortable anywhere from eight to ten furlongs. She has been experimenting with different running styles, but she seems to be at her best as a stalker. She may have been looking for an off track here, which could have helped her cause. On a firm surface in this field, she is going to have to have a career best run and a goodly helping of luck besides, to be a factor late in this one.

PP 10) Manaito Sired by Sadler’s Wells, Trained by palmisland. Manaito is a royally bred three year old colt making his sixteenth career start in this race. He is making his sixth straight stakes start and has two victories to his creidt at this level. He’s made twelve runs this season, coming out of them with a 4-3-2-1-0 record and a best speed of 98.2 which he earned in his last start. That outing was an eleven furlong stakes in Pensylvania, where he won a hard fought thriller by a scant half length. He started his career on dirt, and he performed quite well. He really caught fire with a switch to turf, and has only finished out of the top two once in his last eight starts. Those last eight starts have also marked his stretching out in distance, and he has loved the longer races. He seems to be at his best at anywhere from nine to eleven furlongs, and this is right up the middle of his preference. If he has a piece of the early lead, he has the stamina to old on to it right to the wire, but has no tendencies to close if he can’t get to the lead quickly. He is one of the hottest horses in the field right now, and definitely worth a look at his juicy 8/1 odds.

PP 11) CJ McCarron(GB) Sired by Slip Anchor(GB), Trained by ceacho. CJ McCarron(GB) is a lightly raced five year old horse, making only his twentieth career start. This will be his first stakes start of the season, and he is looking for his first career stakes win. He has six starts on the season, notching a 1-0-0-2-1 record with a best speed of 97.3 earned two starts back. He comes off a nine and a half furlong A3x run on a tough Vermont track, where he finished a fading fourth. He’s made about a quarter of his career starts on dirt, and while his speeds were passable, a look and his performance this year confirm his strong turf preference. He seems to prefer a slightly shorter race, but his only victory of the season so far has come at the distance he faces here. He runs as a midpack to deep closer, and his close has been somewhat spotty this year. He seems to peak about every third race, which means this one should be a warm up for a better outing next race. He has an excellent field to set up a close, but that close will have to show itself better than it has so far this season for him to figure into this one down the stretch.