LA Derby Renews Challege between PEGASUS and CYCLONE!
LA Derby Stakes
Grade I
A mile and one quarter on Fast Dirt
$500,000
All horses, 3 years old
We are here in Louisiana for one of the most prestigious races of the year leading up to the Breeders Bowl. Some of the best three year old colts in existence have made there way here and two in particular are ready to carry on their own personal challenge to one another. A bit of a surprise that the third member of this threesome VIRTUOSO has not made the trek but strategies being what they are, there could be several reasons for that. Beyond the two favorites, we have lots of great horses and just about as many great stories in this race so let’s take a look:
1 – NEW FOUND CYCLONE ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 5/1 YDRBargain 12.5% F.Oxon 23% 108.8 101.0 1
(NEWFOUNDLAND x NORTHERN DANCER x MR. PROSPECTOR) This beautiful chestnut colt is the number one rated horse at this age and distance. He has an amazing record with eight wins in his first seventeen races and really through a beauty out last race posting a sizzling 108 SPF and winning the Travlers Stakes GI rather easily. That was his fourth Graded win this year and third time in a GI. Trainer YDRBargain is tickled as this colt has done everything asked, even winning a couple on the grass earlier this year. He has one of the best in the business in the irons in F.Oxon and this team should be very hard to beat. He has had some kind of rivalry with both VIRTUOSO and ERMINGTON PEGASUS the latter of which is in this race.
| 2 – RAINBOW PHYL | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | Sam | 15.4% | J.VanDaveer | 12% | 100.8 | 98.8 | 29 |
(RAINBOW QUEST x DANZIG x STORM CAT) This colt is out of BUDA QUEST who was a fifteen time and Stakes winning mare. He must really like Louisiana or trainer Sam just likes the food here as this is his third turn here in five races. He has been struggling a bit lately with his only win on the year coming in an allowance race two back when he dropped down in class. His speeds have been solid if unspectacular and he has finished no higher than fourth in his past five Graded attempts. Prior to that he had three straight seconds so he would love to straighten out and get back on track here.
| 3 – BAFFIN BAY | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | FatAttack | 28.6% | O.Euler | 13% | 104.2 | 94.7 | 275 |
((RED RANSOM x SADLER’S WELLS x NUREYEV) A beautifully bred colt, although you would think would be more suited for the grass than the dirt. Trainer FatAttack has to be wondering in the back of his mind if this is one of those unexplainable horses that is fantastic at allowance races then inexplicably falls flat in the Stakes company. He seems to like this distance and has been improving rapidly and has won two in a row with nice SPFs but failed badly in his one previous GI attempt on the dirt. Euler is in the saddle and is quite capable with these youngsters. Will probably be sitting back and waiting for someone to make a mistake.
| 4 – DIVINE INSPIRATION | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Win | 15.9% | Bo Ryan | 7% | 105.3 | 105.3 | 12 |
(PULPIT x PHONE TRICK x STORM CAT) Here is a “divine” horse that needs no divine intervention or inspiration. He has run four straight triple figure SPFs and is looking well trained under Win’s guidance. He may prefer the mile over this distance but has previously won a GI and the inside post will help as he loves to go to the lead. Throw out his last race as he showed he isn’t partial to an off track, even though he still finished with a 100 SPF. It appears that this colt is jut getting going and could make a big noise with a win here.
| 5 – RHIBUS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | GradeTwo | 19.5% | D.Hogin | 15% | 112.3 | 97.3 | 5 |
(KINGMAMBO x PLEASANT COLONY x NIJINSKY II) After an incredible two year old season and a win in the Florida Derby GI earlier this year, this PLEASANT NIJINSKY baby had been struggling the middle of this year. Trainer GradeTwo tried several things including different distances and even a couple turns on the turf but nothing seemed to be working until he ran and incredible 112 SPF last time out while winning the Winchester Park Derby Grade II race. That certainly opened some eyes and would sure send a message that he is back if he can do that again here. Hogin is in the irons and will help in that regard as he knows how to ride fast horses. Look out for this one.
| 6 – SHINZAUN | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | TwoPump | 17.1% | H.Fernandez | 13% | 85.8 | 85.8 | 87 |
(WEST ACRE x PULPIT x BEST TURN) A big brown colt by little used sire WEST ACRE out of broodmare DANCE HALL MISS, he has three Stakes wins this year but was mostly disappointing in his Graded outing until he threw a nice 105 SPF and fourth place finish with a big close in his last race at the Morrison Mile GI. That was his first foray onto an off track and he seemed to like it. Trainer TwoPump is stretching it out a bit as this will be his first race longer than 9 furlongs. It will be interesting to see how he responds to that last race on a fast track and plenty of competition.
| 7 – SOLUTIONS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/1 | KDiv | 13.9% | A.Donahue | 9% | 96.3 | 92.4 | 44 |
(TOUCH GOLD x T. M. OPERA O x SEEKING THE GOLD) Our only filly entered , she has been golden by more than her family tree and has taken on the boys before with competitive results. Trainer KDiv knows that she has her work cut out for her here though as we have the best of the best among the males in this race. She likes the longer circuits, perhaps even a bit longer than this one so should have plenty of stamina but I’m not sure she has quite enough speed at this point to stay with the frontrunners.
| 8 – HOLD YOUR THUNDER | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/1 | Graywolf10 | 11.6% | A.Brooks | 5% | N/A | N/A | 925 |
(THUNDER PUDDLES x MR. GREELEY x HOLD YOUR PEACE) First Graded outing on a fast track and the longest of his career which is a bit curious as he really seems to prefer the sprints a bit more. Trainer Graywolf10 likes to try them on all possible scenarios and will stretch him out a bit here. Brooks will be holding the reins and has really struggled lately which won’t help this contigent. It doesn’t look real promising on paper for this entry but that is why they run the races and don’t just figure them out on paper.
| 9 – INTERGALACTIC | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | Eddie72 | 16.7% | P.Sullivan | 10% | 104.3 | 95.6 | 7 |
(APTITUDE x UNBRIDLED x SADLER’S WELLS) An interesting entry here by trainer Eddie72 as this young colt has really been coming along lately. He has a Grade II win and three straight GI second place finishes before stumbling a bit in the Travelers GI Stakes last time out. This would be a great time for him to take a huge step forward and really show that he is among the elite horses in this race. He is ranked in the top ten but needs a big win to show the world that he is ready to stake his claim to stardom.
| 10 – ERMINGTON PEGUSUS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/2 | Pigeon3 | 18.9% | T.Campy | 10% | 109.3 | 100.2 | 3 |
(SKY MESA x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SECRETARIAT) Don’t mention the name NEW FOUND CYCLONE around this colt’s trainer Pigeon 3. If not for “that colt”, as he puts it, his beautiful chestnut colt out of SECRET PEGASUS would probably be the top ranked three year old. They along with VIRTUOSO have had quite a competition this year but this colt as usually just missed the top spot. He is certainly a star but too many folks ask if he can win the big one. This would be a great place to answer that question. With VIRTUOSO not entered here, he can concentrate on his main nemesis and hopes to put him away.
| 11 – GENOCIDE JUNKIES | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | SDMF1 | 19.6% | C.Morris | 4% | 105.1 | 96.6 | 69 |
(LOUIS QUATORZE x VALID APPEAL x COX’S RIDGE) This LOUIS QUATORZE offspring has made huge strides in his past three races all at around this distance and all of which he has won. Trainer SDMF1 wants to transfer that improvement into a Grade I victory against some of the best here. He has a chance if he can even make a tiny jump in improvement like he has recently each race. He will have to overcome the trials and tribulations of jockey Morris who has really been struggling but there is something in this colts stride lately that makes everyone around him think that he can do it.
| SO SLEW ME | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | BabyFarms | 17.5% | I.Szott | 10% | 111.4 | 95.4 | 11 |
(BELONG TO ME x SEATTLE SLEW x STORM CAT) This former Grade I winner ran his best race last time out only to get nipped at the wire by RHIBUS. He threw a sizzling 111 SPF and would have won almost anywhere except where he was that day. Trainer BabyFarms had to have had a bad taste in his mouth after that race and sure would like to erase it with a win here today. That is a distinct possibility with this colt who has been a little inconsistent but can throw out a big number at any time. His previous race at this distance was not to his liking so that is a bit of a concern as is the outside post.
Morning Line = 10-1-4-12
Yoss Tipsheet = 10-1-12-3
Paz Picks = 1-10-3-12-11-4
Most everyone will be concentrating on the big two in this race but there are actually several horses that could be the winner. I like DIVINE INSPIRATION to just finish out of the money in sixth but could easily break into the top three. In a bit of an upset I have GENOCIDE JUNKIES with a fifth place finish and SO SLEW ME to finish fourth. I think that BAFFIN BAY can contend so I have her in third. That leaves the two big boys so I guess I AM like everyone else. It seems like everyone else is taking ERMINGTON PEGUSUS to to pull out the win this time but I think that NEW FOUND CYCLONE really has his number and will finish on top again until the next time for these great colts.
Good luck to all runners!
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