Who’ll go the distance in The NIJINSKY SCOOPING Bonanza?
The NIJINSKY SCOOPING Bonanza is named after a royally bred horse owned by dusty1942. Despite twelve wins in stakes company he was never able to put a graded win together. Splitting his time between sprints and routes on both surfaces versatility was the key to SCOOP’s success. The horses racing in the bonanza are only two; only time will tell whether one of them has the heart to run like a winner every Saturday, regardless of the conditions their trainers may try them in.
ARZAK trained by dreamscity – 3/1
This colt improved with extra distance last time out, but this time he’s being asked to stretch a whole 2f. His sire Gulch is primarily a sprint influence, but his mama’s side of the family has thrown racers of every distance. The odds makers certainly think this one will handle the distance in stride, and provided the front runners don’t get too far out of sight I tend to agree.
DIXIE BURNING trained by okiedokie – 7/2
The lone filly running this Saturday, this will be DIXIE’s first shot at the boys. In her last attempt at a route she ended up breaking her maiden, and though she was pulling away from the field in the stretch her speed figures weren’t great. Last time out in the AMERICAN CHANT Challenge at 7.5f she was pulling up to the winner, but she made her move just a little too late. She has been running in small to medium-sized fields, exclusively in filly only races, and this will be a challenging race for her. However, if she can repeat or improve upon her last performance she should end up in the money here.
VELOCITY ROGUE trained by seedly – 9/2
Both Rogue’s sire (SILVER GHOST) and dam sire (CAPOTE) suggest that he should be a sprinter, but he continues to improve as seedly stretches him out. His last race, in the NOVEMBER LAUNCH Bonanza at 7.5f put him just 2-3/4 lengths off the win. His run-from-behind style should put him with ARZAK towards the back of the pack, but if he can show the kick in the stretch he had last time out he may be able to catch the front pack again.
RAISE AN AMERICAN trained by wulf – 7/1
The odds here reflect two previous stakes losses. This colt’s confidence must be shaken, after four straight top three finishes his trainer chose to try him twice (and now a third time) in races where he was slightly over-classed. He did improve last time out, scoring an SP of 75 over 7.5f, but he will have to improve quite a bit to score here. I’d like to see him return to running mid-pack, he does appear to have a modest closing kick and that serves him much better when he hasn’t completely lost touch with the leading group.
THUNDER GOES BOOM trained by ticketman0 – 5/1
This colt has the fastest SP over 8f in the group, and has been tried at this distance the last two times out. He was much improved in his last performance, hitting the board in the DEDICATED TREASURE Challenge. This should give this pony (and his trainer) confidence going into this one despite the somewhat high odds. A repeat performance here might put him in the top three once again.
SIERRA MADRE trained by whitetiger – 7/1
This colt is making his debut in this race. Asking a two-year-old to cover 8f his first time out is tough, whitetiger must know something about this one that I don’t! On paper MADRE is out of a well-bred broodmare with modest talent on the track and sired by ROCK SLIDE, a third-year sire out of A.P. INDY. His sire does have two stakes winners in his two-year old crop, but the rest have shown only the ability to win under maiden conditions. I’d like to see this one try to beat a field of maidens before I bet.
RED ROCK CANYON trained by illbred – 4/1
Going out in the lead is definitely this horse’s style, however at 8.5f last time out it failed him as he was passed in the stretch. Scaling back a ½ furlong may help, but it looks like the jocks didn’t have much faith as only E. Bell could be talked into taking the mount (7% wins, 24% ITM). If he goes out into the lead he’ll have to take at least a 3f lead as this field is littered with solid closers. I’d like to see this one try a 7f race next time out and then stretch gradually from there.
This race should go down as follows (though there are always surprises); RED ROCK CANYON will take the early lead, tucked behind in the second pack will be SIERRA MADRE, DIXIE BURNING and THUNDER GOES BOOM, the third pack will comprise of RAISE AN AMERICAN and VELOCITY ROGUE and trailing the field will be ARZAK who will bide his time until they get around the turn. In the stretch watch for ARZAK who should be gaining ground quickly, though I predict that VELOCITY ROGUE will be in a better position to capture the leaders. Remember to keep your eyes peeled for DIXIE BURNING whom I think has the heart and gusto to take on the boys and win.