Six Chances from Six Starters in Tennessee

We’ve had a bit of rain affect the track for the regular stakes race in Tennessee, with the result that only six juveniles will front the starter. The Nineteen Meal Stakes is the main race on the program, an eight and a half furlong event for two year olds, which will be run on a good dirt track. Although only a small field has accepted for the race, it is sure to be a closely contested affair with virtually all of the runners having a chance of collecting the major share of the $60,000 on offer.

The race is named after Nineteen Meal, a stakes winning, grade three placed horse which picked up $400,000 in a career covering 82 starts for four different trainers

The early market this week is:

2/1 – Adobochubbycheeks

5/2 – King of All Media, A.P. American

9/2 – Uptonogood

7/1 – My Chance

9/1 – Locked on High

Looking through the field in betting order:

# 3 – Adobochubbycheeks – 2/1. – A controversial favorite in the morning line, considering he has a bit left to prove. The bookmakers were obviously mightily impressed with his first up run, when he overpowered a full field to take out his maiden in Argentina. That run was good enough to see him installed at the top of betting for his second start, where he disappointed against stakes company. He’s been given another chance here, but many will not line up to take the short price this time, given he let them down so badly last start, he’s having his first run on the dirt, and he’s untried on affected ground. Extremely well bred from scratch by trainer winningday, he carries the blood of Kitten’s Joy / Mr. Prospector / Sadler’s Wells. Obviously talented, but a risk at the short price

# 1 – King of All Media – 5/2. – An established stakes class colt, with a win over six and a half furlongs, and a closing third over the mile in two starts at this level. The most experienced runner in the race, he lines up for his seventh start this weekend. He likes to drop out in his races, and the small field suits as he’ll have less horses than usual to work through. Trainer moneymaker has secured the pick of the riders in R. Bokie. The colt is a son of Mass Media based on Cat’s Thunder (Thunder Gulch / Storm Cat), a winner of 2 from 42. He looks a second to none chance, with the only question mark being his ability to handle the track condition.

# 4 – A.P. American – 5/2. – Has been a tad disappointing in his four runs since his debut, where he made up good ground to defeat eleven rivals in a five furlong dash. He likes to give away a good start, so again he’s one who may benefit from the small field. Prior to last start, his speed rating had shown steady improvement, so oddsmakers are obviously prepared to overlook the last as an aberration. Two starts back he ran third in a full field over the mile in a stakes race. ticketman0 scratchbred him using the quality lines of A.P. Indy / Quiet American / Afleet. One of only two in the race with winning wet track form, he’ll be well ridden by M. Isdell and is sure to be motoring home at the business end.

# 6 – Uptonogood – 9/2. – Is somewhat of an unknown quantity here as only one of his five starts to date has been on the dirt, and he’s tackling the route distance for the first time. Nothing wrong with his exposed form, as he put away maiden and allowance races at his first two, before embarking on a black type career which has seen a check brought home at each of his subsequent three. Third of ten in the Dalesbark Cup – G3 is the most significant achievement of any of the runners here, and he’s the other winner on a rain affected track. There is plenty to like on the form page. Uptonogood was bred by trainer bigears, using Pulpit over his good producing ‘exclusive’ broodmare Sadie Nun (Rainbow Quest / Pappa Riccio). He’s the third black type runner from the mare’s three to race. Persistent Pedro (Swain) was stakes placed as an early three year old. Pedro’s Rainbow (Scenic) is still racing well, with a stakes win and four black type ITM’s from 16, and now this one is more than earning his keep. There’s plenty to like about his chances this weekend, and he may be the best value in the race.

# 2 – My Chance – 7/1. – This one may have sneaked under the radar, given that he took five starts until winning his maiden five weeks ago. That fact combined with his cheaper bloodlines, may encourage bettors to underestimate his chances. His first ever start was his only run on rain affected going, and he made good ground to finish fourth, just a length and a half from the winner, returning a 68 speed figure. Far from shabby for an early juvenile. His next three were all closing close up finishes, before he stepped up to the mile last start and motored home for a convincing win. Always a question mark surrounding the big class jump, but globalism’s son of High Demand / Rollicking / Transworld could fly home late without surprising.

# 5 – Locked on High – 9/1. – The only filly in the race will start at the longest odds, based on a brief career comprising just two starts, with her maiden victory coming at the second of them two months ago. Although officially the roughie, wdfifty’s lightly raced youngster is by no means without some sort of chance. Factors to be taken into account include her first run, in which she was beaten just a length on rain affected going. Her victory came over the mile, so she’s established herself at the trip. Locked on High is a daughter of High Yield, based on Our Locks (Sharp Drummer / Broad Brush), a grade 2 placed winner of five stakes races. She’s got a bit to prove jumping up to stakes class against the boys so quickly, but, like all in this race, a forward showing would not surprise.

Selections: – I don’t think the favorite represents any value, with all the questions he has yet to answer. He obviously has ability, but I’d want to see some black type form on the page before accepting these cramped odds. King of All Media is a stakeswinner, came home strongly over the mile last start and so gets my nod. It was only a maiden, but My Chance looked good at his first route start, and at 7/1 looks good value, so he’s my second pick. A.P American, stakes placed over the mile, and a winner on the good, in a tight decision for third pick, although I’m not happy leaving out Uptonogood, and really, any result from the six fairly evenly matched runners will come as no great surprise. I don’t think this is a good betting race, unless you want to support your own horse.