No QB Controversy Here!
The Margarine Stakes
Grade II
A mile and one sixteenth on Sloppy Dirt
$250,000 Purse
Fillies, 2 years old
I am standing along the rail in Ontario with my umbrella in hand and it looks like this will be a necessary part of my equipment the next few days as the weatherman has forecast downpours for the duration. This means that most of these young fillies will be facing an off track for the very first time. There are however, at least four in this field that have not only faced an off track but won as well although they probably haven’t seen anything like the muck this track promises to show on Saturday. A bunch of good looking young ladies wrestling in the mud, what more can you ask for! Let’s take a look:
1 – BAILEY THE CAT ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 7/1 AlyBobBob2 17.2% I. Selby 7% 87.7 87.7 N/A
(ROSES IN MAY x STORM CAT x SEATTLE SLEW) At first glance, it might be easy to dismiss this young filly. She struggled her first two races and didn’t look good on either surface. Then trainer AlyBobBob2, like all good trainers tried something new. He threw her out onto an off track at a longer distance and she flew to the victory with a sizzling 87 SPF. Now he finds another off track at a mile plus here although it will probably be a bit heavier mud. The inside post seems to be to her liking so you had better not count this girl out.
| 2 – APPARITION HILL | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/1 | MarsAttack | 22.1% | V.Townsend | 12% | N/A | N/A | 77 |
( GHOSTZAPPER x METFIELD x CAUCASUS) This Ghostzapper offspring is Stakes tested with four outings already including a GIII. Trainer MarsAttack has continued to stretch her out and she won the BARB’S SALMA Stakes last time out with a furious stretch run and a nice 75 SPF. She is moving to an even longer distance this time and that may be to her liking. She hasn’t faced an off track yet but Townsend is in the irons and his capable hand should move her around nicely.
| 3 – SOUBRETTE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | NovaNora | 12.8% | J.Iginla | 3% | 78.1 | 72.2 | N/A |
( SOUTHERN HALO x DYNAFORMER x MT. LIVERMORE) Lightly races which is trainer NovaNora’s style, this sweet little filly has run two Maiden Allowances winning the last with a 78 SPF at a mile. This will be her first off track as well so this girl is tough to figure. She is well trained but has Iginlia in the saddle who had really been having his struggles this year. She likes to be near the lead so the inside post may help out.
| 4 – BONIEK | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/1 | MacStake | 11.8% | T.LeVan | 8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
(STORMIN FEVER x ANZIYAN x IRISH TOWER) After winning her first race, this filly is zero for three including two Stakes races. Trainer MacStake is stretching her out this time as she has never gone further than six and a half until now. This will be her first time in the mud wrestling as well so unless she has a surprise in store for us it could be a long day. Of course, you never know with these juveniles and that is what makes them so much fun.
| 5 – WINDREAVER | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | Mav1764 | 17.6% | C.Brubaker | 12% | 82.3 | 82.3 | 143 |
(SAINT LIAM x UNBRIDLED x NIJINSKY II) First Stakes outing for this big girl but she has shown plenty of pace and likes this distance and apparently likes and off track as well as evidenced by her last race where she ran a speedy 82 SPF in the rain at a mile to win going away. She has a top jockey up in Brubaker so this could be a formidable pair especially with trainer Mav1764 and his gaudy 17 plus win percentage behind them.
| 6 – LIBERTY RAIN | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | FoxOn | 33.3% | B.Renfroe | 22% | 85.9 | 85.9 | 20 |
(STATUE OF LIBERTY x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SAINT BALLADO) On any other day this could easily be the big favorite in the race. Hopefully trainer FoxOn knows that this filly likes her namesake which is rain as she has yet to try a muddy track. She has had no problem with anything that’s been thrown at her though as she has won three in a row and improved each time topped by her Stakes win last time out with a really nice 85 SPF. She has Renfroe holding the reins who may be the tracks hottest jockey as well so this will be an interesting experiment.
| 7 – MACHU PICHU | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | BMR002 | 5.0% | S.Wasco | 11% | 78.9 | 78.9 | 125 |
(SKY MESA x CONQUISTADOR CIELO x SEATTLE SLEW) Some of these young fillies have never raced in a Stakes before and this girl has never run anything but a Stakes race. That includes two graded outings with vastly different results. With the exception of one Graded race she has always been competitive and has one Stakes win. This will be her first time in the muck and trainer BMR002 will learn what she thinks about that quickly as she generally likes to get near the lead. I predict trouble in this race for the pair.
| 8 – VIA CRUCIS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | Buffy6 | 15.0% | C.Muncie | 11% | 77.0 | 77.0 | 120 |
(PLEASANTLY PERFECT x SEEKING THE GOLD x DIXIELAND BAND) This lady has won two in a row coming here but it will be her first Stakes and first off track and that is a lot to ask a young girl by trainer Buffy6. She has continued to improve as she’s stretched out to longer distances and this may be to her liking. She needs to bump her SPFs up a bit to compete here. Muncie is in the leather and is quite capable with these youngsters, that will help.
| 9 – THE EDGE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/2 | StormBoot | 21.1% | T.Ceciliani | 11% | 81.4 | 81.4 | N/A |
(PLEASANTLY PERFECT x SADLER’S WELLS x MR. PROSPECTOR) One race and one win with a really nice 81 SPF for this pretty filly. StormBoot is taking her to the big time in a hurry and she may be ready although I always worry about that second race, especially on a track as bad as this one may be. Ceciliani is in the saddle and is quite capable of pulling off a big win so watch this one but I’m afraid the Morning Line may have gone overboard here based on one race.
| 10 – GIMME VINCE YOUNG | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Super23 | 20.8% | N.Linville | 19% | 84.9 | 80.6 | 21 |
(GHOSTZAPPER x A.P. INDY x FORTY NINER) There is a lot to like with this filly. The breeding is excellent, I love the name and she has run fantastic so far this campaign. She has one of the top jockeys at the track up in Linville and trainer Super23 has a plus 20 percent win percentage. On top of all that, she has run two races on an off track and won both of them. Make room at the window, I’m betting the house on this one!
| 11 – THE DIRTY DANCER | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/1 | Laramie | 7.1% | B.McCafferty | 7% | N/A | N/A | 36 |
(SILVER DEPUTY x GRAND SLAM x STORM CAT) This is a really nice looking filly. She already has two Stake wins to her credit and has challenged up until the Grade I last time out. The only problems facing trainer Laramie is that she has never gone past six and a half furlongs and she has never faced an off track. That along with the fact that jockey McCafferty has really been struggling this year doesn’t bode well for this race. We shall see if she can overcome the challenges.
| 12 – PICO PEQUENO(BRZ) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/1 | DB | 22.0% | K.Ebner | 3% | N/A | N/A | 350 |
(PICO CENTRAL (BRZ) x FOREST WILDCAT x SEEKING THE GOLD) Brazilian bred and full of that Latin fire, this filly has never missed the board in four races including top threes in two Stakes races. Trainer DB has brought her along nicely and with a win percentage like his what do you expect? She is however, facing her longest race to date and first foray into the raindrops. In addition, jockey Ebner has been terrible this year and it appears that she will be just dragging the jockey along. Tough way to start your first Graded effort.
| 13 – MY COMMENTATOR | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | PointBlank | 8.4% | Mo.Johnson | 13% | 77.9 | 77.9 | 111 |
(DISTORTED HUMOR x STORM BIRD x WOODMAN) First Stakes outing in four races for this nicely bred filly but she has never finished worse than second by half a length and one of her two wins was on an off track. Trainer PointBlank is hoping that she can skip on in here and with jockey Johnson’s help steal away a win in her first Stakes event. I would say that is a distinct possibility.
Morning Line = 9-6-10-1
Yoss Tipsheet = 7-1-3-6
Paz Picks = 10-1-5-6-9
A really interesting race with the mud and all of the young fillies, I like THE EDGE to finish fifth. I think there is just too much to overcome in only her second race to ask for more. I may regret this but I worry about the mud for LIBERTY RAIN so I’m taking her off my board. She has too much talent though to finish below fourth A couple of semi-longshots that have both won in the rain, I like WINDREAVER to upset a few in this field for third and BAILEY THE CAT to hold on for second by a neck. The young lady that is ready to make a statement to the racing world this week is GIMME VINCE YOUNG . She has a lot going for her in this race and could win by a large margin.
Good luck to all runners!
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