Big Race Preview 2986

Dirt runners in New York lead this weeks races. We have a fine group of older runners preparing for a possible run in the Breeder’s Bowl Classic. The other New York Race could send a filly or mare to the Breeder’s Bowl Distaff. The other races are group of three year old filly milers and a mile and a half for older runners missing the top horses in that division.

Race: 2986.0414 Bob Woodward Memorial – Grade I – $500,000
Track: New York
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

The morning line has a solid favorite however a deeper look at this field and it is apparent nearly every runner in here is a contender. The morning line favorite is Scoobs Connection. He is an excellent miler and does very well in long sprints. The distance is not the question for him it is this distance against this level of horse.

Tempest flashed talent at three making the Bluegrass Derby and Middle Jewel but he has started to put things together this year as a four year old in grade II and grade III races. He is running very good speed figures and this distance is a great fit for this horse that will be coming from off the pace. Fly For Buda was arguably one of the best three year olds from last year winning the Middle Jewel and placing in the Bluegrass and New Yorker. Despite only a couple of wins this year he is running very strongly. He has stepped back to the lower graded races and done well. This will be his first grade I test since last year.

Slither defeated a great field of runners in the Smackdown II. He ran well last time out getting second in the grade I CA Classic. He has been consistent this year and that has been a good indicator so far this year in predicting a winner. Still there are other runners capable of running faster so he will need to step it up.

Twist of Lemon shocked them at the Movieland Shiny Cup. He came right back in the CA Classic and ran third so he is in good form and capable of the big run. His last two have been much better than he has ever done but you have to respect the lemon.  

Race: 2986.0415 Superfilly Handicap – Grade I – $400,000
Track: New York
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

K’s Joan Bach has won three in a row and is the morning line favorite. The negative is none of those races were graded stakes although the Smackdown field was graded worthy. With the roll she is on she will be tough to beat. Her deep closing style makes her vulnerable to a strong front runner.

Quiet Glory is just the type of speed horse that K’s Joan Bach may have trouble with. Quiet Glory moved out a bit in distance her last two and even though it was a sixteenth of a mile further than this race that appears to be just out of her wheel house. Now this distance is perfect for her she has multiple graded wins and is a monster on the front end.

Empire Reef is set to provide even more pace on the front end with Quiet Glory and that could compromise both their chances. Empire Reef’s speed keeps her in races more times than not. You have to go back nearly a year for her last win on dirt. Her recent wins have been on the turf, none the less watch Empire Reef.

There are three runners just about in the same category. Filet Chival, Forty Winx, and Stormy Meagan. Fory Winx and Stormy Meagan have produced their recent form at the allowance or listed stakes level. Filet Chival has run alright in a couple of grade III events but is in the same boat. All three have speed figures that seem to fit however they get a class check this week.

Race: 2986.5515 Sun State Cup – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Queensland
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: One mile on the Turf

A solid group of twelve three year old fillies have come together in Queensland. The field is led by Dance Seeker who really wishes this race would be run on an off surface. Her best race has come on the yielding turf and while she has been solid on firm going taking a grade II stakes she would probably rather have it rain.

Cannot Comply looked very good last time out taking the grade III Diana Classic. She is a multiple graded winner at this distance. She did run second to Dance Seeker a few races back but she seems plenty capable of turning the tables. Prabha (AUS) has been a very good sprinter but when it comes to the mile distance she has yet to have stuck around. This will only be her second attempt at the mile distance as a three year old and she could handle it this time.

Cosmo Girl won the Cremation Cup by a nose a few races back and this might be her best distance. She will be stalking and that could be the best place to be on the track this weekend. Chop Never Stops ran second at the 1000 Guineas this year but has tailed off since. She is a long shot here coming off a longer break than usual. This fresh front runner could pull off the upset.

Race: 2986.1416 The Long Walk – Grade I – $500,000
Track: New Mexico
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and three quarters on the Turf

Ten runners brave the mile and a half this week with none of the top dogs appearing. That leaves Sadler’s Thorns as the favorite with just one career turf start. Not to mention the fact Sadler’s Thorns has never run this far. None the less he has shown some talent and if he goes to the lead maybe he sticks around.

Confederacy (IRE) looks the best choice to step up in the absence of the big guns. He has been right there in graded stakes recently and in fact scored his first graded victory in his last race. He will keep a close eye on the front of this race. Neo Swan adds more speed to the mix and yet another runner unproven at this distance. He is a graded stakes winner but that was at a mile this distance may be too much to ask.

Surgeon Tubes won the Smackdown event a few races back with a speed figure that wins this race but has followed that nice win up with a seventh and ninth place finish. That is not exactly saying “hey bet on me”. Dante is an older veteran of sixty races. If class has any say so this weekend he just might win this thing. He is past his prime but it really would not take much improvement off his recent races to put him in contention here plus he cuts back in distance which is a great angle.