The Darling-Squash Futurity
It’s on every trainer’s mind and coming out of every owner’s mouth this time of year — the Breeders’ Bowl is coming! Today we’re talking two-year olds, looking for a spot in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile. And with that hallowed event now just six weeks away, this may well be the last opportunity for a horse to get his ticket punched to the big dance. What makes this running of the G-2 Darling-Squash Futurity all the more interesting is that only Apache Sunrise, and possibly Dixieland Wells, seem to have already earned their entry — our other dozen horses in the field need to win! Let’s take a look at our contenders, from the rail out.
1 Apache Sunrise (poorman) – Race favorite is also the field’s top money earner, having earned the brunt of that loot in an eye-opening performance in winning the G-1 KyHorseman Juvenile last out. Harlan’s Holiday colt has a ton of stamina in his pedigree, so it wasn’t really surprising to see him enjoy going a mile, but I’m not sure anyone could have predicted he’d look as good as he did based on his past performances. So, there are two schools of thought here — either you believe he’s a better, stronger, faster horse now that he’s routing, or you believe… that his last was kind of a fluke and that he’s going to revert back to the average speed figures he was running while he was sprinting. I’m kind of on the fence about his chances myself and, while I acknowledge I may be sticking my foot completely in my mouth… I don’t think he wins this week. Call it bulletin board material for poorman’s stable…
2 Dalriada (socalman) – Saint Liam colt sports a sharp stamina pedigree as well, but was a few lengths behind Watergate Scandal in his first route try last out. Interestingly enough he’s started his career in descending fashion with a win, a second, and a third in his first three races. So does he complete the superfecta this week? Well, he’s not as accomplished as many of these with only the maiden win to his credit and the speed figures don’t suggest he’s really a threat for the winner’s circle — a fourth place finish might be the best this guy can hope to achieve this week.
3 Dixieland Wells (pedroza) – Three graded stakes winners in the field and this son of Dixieland Band is one of them, but he bagged his back in June and he hasn’t really shown any improvement since then. A couple of those he beat that day ran second and third in the G-1 Happy Labor Day a few weeks ago and would probably go off favored against this guy if they were to hook up again now. He finished second as a slight favorite to our other graded stakes winner, Busting To Leak, last out in his first route try against G-3 types and don’t believe it gets any easier for him now as he finds himself in a deeper, more talented field this week.
4 Awesome Bird (togastable) – Most experienced member of the cast has but a single win to show for his seven trips to the starting gate and his last two have been particularly poor efforts in G-3 company — which makes it all the more curious as to why he steps up in class this week. Took a big step in the wrong direction last out as he finished far behind a nice looking son of Galileo and you can argue he just doesn’t prefer that surface, but his best stakes effort thus far actually came on the turf… all that said, he probably is more suited to dirt, but the speed figures he’s posted still aren’t good enough to win this — or hit the board for that matter. I like this guy’s pedigree so much I’m tabbing it for a future breeding of my own, but that’s the only endorsement I can really give him until he shows he can be competitive against lesser types…
5 Broken Beau (cue) – Being by Red Ransom, you’d think he’d love the turf, but he’s done well on the dirt thus far — he’s hasn’t missed the board in three starts, but he’s also making his stakes (and graded stakes) debut this week. Not sure what to make of the company he’s kept either — he beat allowance foes by a mere half length last out and the runner-up that day returned to finish seventh (at the same exact odds) against another bunch of allowance types a couple weeks ago. He’ll appreciate the stretch out in distance, but he hasn’t run a race yet that shows he’s capable of winning at this level and, couple that with a pedigree that suggests he’ll be better at three than he is now at two, I’m not certain he’s capable of making the necessary improvement needed in order to win this…
6 Ehs Tayzers (IRE) (deeprock8) – First try on the dirt came at this distance and was a pretty solid effort as he notched his first victory that day, but the follow up try was just plain ugly as he finished second to last and a mile behind Blackcat Canyon. He also seems to be the longest shot on the board by a mile this week and neither his speed figures, nor his breeding, suggest he’s got a legitimate shot at cashing a paycheck. Stranger things have happened, but I don’t think any of them involved this guy hitting the finish line first this week…
7 Northern Bullet (wabred1) – Red Bullet colt comes from a sparkling family — three siblings are either graded stakes placed or stakes winners and this guy looks to add some more luster to mom’s stats this week. Not without a shot either — he’s another with a ton of stamina in his pedigree and he showed it with a resounding win at this distance last out while earning a speed figure that makes him competitive with these. The knock is that his last came against allowance types — runner up in that race is now 1 for 7 lifetime and finished sixth in a G-2 in his last race. Bites off a lot this week, but who knows? Maybe he’s good enough…
8 Watergate Scandal (jonsnow) – He easily broke his maiden on this very track back in May and both of his wins have come in gate-to-wire fashion as he overwhelmed a small stakes field last out in preparation for this. He should be prominent throughout this week — it appears he’s the speed of the speed in here and he might be tough to catch if nobody softens him up in the early going and he’s allowed to set some slow fractions. Lots of positives in his corner and think he’s a contender for all the marbles this week…
9 Degoldenstorm (tenpin4) – Two sensational open lengths wins in a row and it looked like he was the only horse that really enjoyed the slop last out against stakes contenders. He’s a half brother to a graded stakes winner, he’s won three of five, and the speed figures have gone north with every outing. He also topped Blackcat Canyon in an allowance race back in July. Few negatives on his resume as he’s shown he can win races stalking the pace and closing from behind — that kind of versatility should serve him well this week.
10 Sword Of Scarlet (kingab) – He’s getting better as the distances increase and he’s running farther again this week, which is good news for those in his camp and bad news for the rest of the field. Son of Pulpit looked super last out in notching his first stakes win and topped a pretty well-regarded customer in C.V. Cat that day too. He’s got nice breeding (only offspring of a dam that was best routing), nice tactical speed (which should ensure a nice trip), and I could easily envision a scenario in which he fires a career best speed figure against these this week. He’s the one my money’s on this week.
11 Ta’s Fearless Roar (adrian2) – First try at this mile long distance came against nineteen other two-year olds, so you can probably discard that easily enough, but this bargain-bred has a pretty sprint heavy pedigree and I’m not sure he’s going to be that good routing anyway. He looked sharp last time out at a sprint distance, but he kind of looks similar to Apache Sunrise — a number of so-so races followed up by a huge effort. It’s not uncommon for two-year olds to improve by leaps and bounds at this time of year, but I need to see an encore performance in a route race before I can get on his bandwagon…
12 Busting To Leak (jarrod5) – He’s got a touch of speed and actually accomplished the rare feat of breaking his maiden in a graded stakes race after a pair of second place efforts against non-winners. That race came at this distance and he posted his top speed figure that day, but his pedigree seems to suggest he’ll be a better sprinter than router and a number of these have shown they’re capable of running faster at this distance. Respect what he’s accomplished, but not sure he’s this good, at this distance, against this field…
13 Bullet Workout Ted (pup) – Our second Red Bullet colt in the field is another who’s steadily been running further and further and his last (first at this distance) was his best yet as he finished second in stakes company. He really hasn’t shown as much improvement though as some of these and he’s not going to win (our hit the board) without substantial improvement this week. He’s got Danehill and Danzig on his dam’s side, so perhaps this is another to watch should he make a switch to the green in the future…
14 Blackcat Canyon (chilichili) – Cat Thief colt isn’t the fastest horse out of the gates, but he is the only horse in the field to have routed twice so you know he’s fit for this. Unfortunately, he also appears to be suffering from a bad case of seconditis — three straight runner-up efforts suggest he lacks the killer instinct necessary to win these kinds of races. Speed figures have steadily increased with each outing and that’s certainly a positive, but he hasn’t shown he can beat winners yet and he has had a number of chances. Have to believe he’d be a surprise if he happened to get all the money this week.
Selections – 10 – 9 – 8