How classy can they be?

By ITCH

I think I have a pretty good idea who is going to lead the field under the wire the first time in Saturday’s BIGBAD RABBIT BONANZA.

The second time around is more difficult to predict.

No wonder the word “rabbit” is in the title of this week’s race. That’s probably all my SOLAR WAD is. Foundering in second place and unable to score any points since early in the contest, George Plimpton-wannabe Itch has entered a decent allowance horse who probably has no shot of getting this distance or class of race. I will admit it: I have W.Va. Stakes Competition fever. It’s somewhat akin to Buck Fever, which causes a hunter to fire his gun when the wind blows.

What the heck.

We’re giving it a shot. But before we talk too much about our class jumper, let’s talk about these horses in their proper order. First things first: the legit stakes horses.

At the top of the list is the No. 1 qualifier, chibound’s SEARCH AND CONQUER, who towers over this field both in terms of stakes points and earnings per start. Early entrants maybe were getting a little hopeful earlier this week when it looked like the field might come up a hair soft, but those hopes were dashed at 1:12 a.m. Tuesday when chibound entered the big horse. This horse was one of the best handicap horses in all of Sim land last year, running in the exacta in FIVE STRAIGHT Grade I races. It looks like that sustained campaign may have taken a little toll, however, as chibound has backed down into restricted allowances for the better part of this year. He returned to stakes success two back, winning a New Jersey stake. Then, chibound wheeled him right back one week later to run fourth, beaten by a very familiar horse in these parts, Ts1442 Tom’s DIAMOND HEAD. How is the horse gonna rebound from that back-to-back racing? We’ll find out in the lane Saturday.

Alled’s LOOSE CARSON has tons of class, too, but enters this race off a four-month layoff and may not be dialed all the way to the top just yet. Only five races so far this year for this 6yo son of Carson City, who has been on the track with Search and Conquer before. That was in last year’s Grade I CA Classic, in which Search and Conquer was second and Loose Carson a well-beaten 12th. That wasn’t Loose Carson’s best day, but he’s had plenty of good ones. Very good ones. This horse has won five non-graded stakes and a Grade 3. Maybe alleds, a Sim veteran of 472 starts and 68 wins, is going lightly with this 6yo in hopes of preserving his career for a top form cycle that starts now. This horse has the class and ability at the distance, and if he feels like running Saturday, has every right to contend.

Third qualifier is REAL FRUIT for tarski. This late-running son of Real Quiet is only a 4yo and as such still has room for improvement. He’s been competing very effectively this year with six straight races this class and approximate distance and five of those in the money with a one win. Stretches out half a furlong here, and one has to wonder if that might give his late kick a bit more time to get up. The horse has been running his race every race, consistently making his late move to get up on the board and earn a triple-digit speed fig. Late closers have a hard time winning many is all. If the no-class speedball entered by this reporter collapses, it could set up for this horse. Tarski is a well-respected Sim veteran of veterans, having started some 944 horses in this brilliant game.

We have our top contest horse of the week next here with Buzzfarms’ HUSTLIN HOOSIER out of his kk103 barn. This one gets special treatment here at the Spa of the Appalachians, as track owner Edson Tarneault knows a good customer when he sees one. It’s straight to the best room in the house and a complimentary steak for Buzzfarms, who so graciously sponsored THE INDIANA SPECIAL here back in week 2867. In yet another example of How Cruel the Sim Can Be, it wasn’t Hustlin Hoosier’s day back then. The downtown closer never fired, trundling up for sixth and never threatening. That’s the bad news. The good news is he’s fired twice since then, in two of his last three. He was second last out in a short field of six in a Connecticut stake, but the real good one was three back in a full field of 14, when he won. The only thing about that victory was the race was owner restricted, which has to be considered a notch below the class of an open stake like this one. Note that Old Jocko Maloney gets a leg up from Buzz for this race, and the Irish Pugilist has done well with him in the past. He was second in a stake aboard Hustlin Hoosier right here at Old Waterford in a stake, and we all know how Jocko likes to come running from behind. Good luck to Buzz and, as we say, if the speed collapses, it can only help the Silky Sullivan crowd.

The reason we know this is not the toughest stakes field in the world is because our horse is ranked fifth. SOLAR WAD never has started in stakes race. This is his first, and it’s not a likely spot. The smart thing to do would have been to try him at his established distance of 8.5 furlongs. Like we said, we got WV Stakes Competition fever. We’re just gonna send this horse to the front and hope we can hang on for a piece, however unlikely that may be. Solar Wad has stopped badly both times he’s run farther than a mile and a sixteenth. I just hope he comes back in one piece Saturday. Then, we’ll probably lay him off a while and come back into those conditioned allowances where he can hold his own. He is strictly a speed ball in here, kind of like a 4 1/2-furlong horse going six furlongs.

I am going to regard the rest of this field with a bit of apprehension as they couldn’t even get in ahead of Solar Wad.

Just as we say that, Kyclocker8 checks in sixth with the youngest, lightliest-raced and most likely to improve horse in the field, COMANCHE NATION. It’s kind of weird for this very talented son of War Chant to be ranked behind our allowance runner. This horse has stakes placings on both turf and dirt and could be any kind of top class runner. He’s hit the exacta eight of 14 starts already, earning him the automatic handicapping notation “Good Horse.” He’s only a 3yo in a field of older runners. That might be bad in the spring, but it’s good in late summer. He’s coming forward while the others are trying to hold it together. Let’s just say kyclocker8 ain’t gonna make no horse swap for Solar Wad, OK? Look out for this one.

NIMROD’S FORTRESS for g1robbo also is a 3yo, but not with the same kind of career earnings or speed figs as Comanche Nation. A lot of times, however, shrewd handicappers can set themselves up for nice scores when they pay more attention to traditional handicapping than speed figs. Sometimes, horses that makes sense class and distance-wise will pay nice prices if Old Andy and his Boys happen to give them a bad grade. While speed figs below 100 appear an obvious detraction from this horse’s chances, we can observe that he has won a stake, been second in another, and ran just rine when stretched out to nine furlongs last time. Might he like the stretchout to 10 furlongs? No way to know for sure, and a 3yo can jump up. Way up.

Unfortunately for aagri88, MIDLIFE CRISIS kind of reminds me of Solar Wad. This 5yo son of Bahri has done just fine in allowance company going 8.5 furlongs, but is unproven of late in stakes class and at the distance. Arguing in this horse’s favor, we can say that he has, indeed, won a stake at some point in his career, and did run decently several races ago at nine furlongs, rather close to Saturday’s mile and quarter. Like Solar Wad, I doubt this horse’s chances because of the distance and class concerns. Now watch him go.

Amazingly, CHEESE N MAC T is only 1-5 lifetime on a sloppy track despite the rocket fuel wet-track combination of Miswaki to a Fappiano mare. That’s a lot of Mr. P blood pumping directly, wouldn’t you say? There are tons of closers in this race, but cashstable is one trainer who might be saying “not so fast my friend” about our prediction of Solar Wad leading them under the wire the first time. This one has been showing speed in longer dirt route stakes like this, and wheels back in three weeks here after having more rest between races before. Might this signal serious trainer intent? Could be. Cashstable in a good Sim veteran and is starting his 661st horse here Saturday.

Kind of weird to see the Super gang qualifying clear down here, but that’s where allowance class jumper STORMING THROUGH finds himself. Not surprisingly, this super10 barn is home to some classy runners, including BOURBON ST. BLUES who goes today in the Grade 3 Every Monday Stakes in New York. Not sure we can include Storming Through in that group, however, as the Supers probably have a few hundred horses better than this one. That being said, the horse is starting to come around, springing forward in his third start back off a layoff last out for a clear score in a nine-furlong restricted allowance. This horse was second in a 12-furlong stake as a 3yo, so he can run all day.

SING EL qualifies in the penultimate spot, and is an interesting all-or-nothing type horse. He’s got eight wins in 32 starts, but only one place, and only one show. Here is a tip: Do not bet this one second or third. This 6yo light gray son of Peintre Celebre(Ire) is another one whose form more or less resembles Solar Wad’s. He’s been having success in lesser company going shorter. One rule of thumb we always go by is that it’s hard for a horse to do two new things in a race. (Please note we violated our own rule by entering Solar Wad! lol) Jumping in both class and distance is tough. This one shows more likely ability to get the distance, as he closed nicely to be second going nine furlongs two back. Win7930 is a very capable Sim veteran, winning 74 races of 513 career starts for a business-like 14 percent strike rate.

Finally, we have Stretch’s STORMY, who is rather like our classy old Funny Cide of this race. The current form might not look so good, but let’s not forget that Stretch was second in two Grade I races with this horse. At one time, this 7yo son of Pulpit had a lethal closing kick. Also worth noting is the fact that the last two times he’s hit the board were both at Saturday’s distance of 10 furlongs. This horse might fire just a little and trundle up for a show at a long price, which would be worth points in the W.Va. Stakes Competition for stretch.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!