2yos take on Cryogenics for rights to elusive BB entry
The GIII Cryogenics Juvenile, a mile dirt race for the 2yos at Montana, has drawn an interesting field. We have the only still-in-training offspring of that excellent racemare One Sky, we have the #11-ranked 2yo in the dirt classic division, we have two multiple-graded winners, we have one undefeated colt. Mostly what we have is a full field of 14 very very good 2yos who all want those 32 stakes points awarded to the racewinner so they can maybe make a bid for the biggest race of the year – the Breeders Bowl Juvenile. The $150k purse isn’t too shabby either.
This is the sixth running of the Cryogenics Juvenile. The record time is 1:35.4, set last year by funster’s Depravity. History says each successive running tends to be a bit faster than the last, and there are some very fast colts in this year’s field. Might we be looking at a new track record?
Note: All rankings referred to below are for the colts dirt classic division.
Post 1 will briefly host sportoking’s Separated At Birth. The Distorted Humor colt started his career in style with 3 straight victories (MSW, allowance, listed stakes) before faltering his his last 2 start at the graded level. Despite breaking his win streak, he still picked up a 4th and a 5th in those 2 starts, so has yet to go home empty-handed, and he is still showing an improvement in speed figure. His last start was the GI Kentucky Horsemen Juvenile over a mile, which he lost by about six lengths but did post a lifetime high 84SP. He’s currently ranked #95 in the division, so the BB is a longshot, but possible with a stellar performance in this race. The wins all saw him close to the pace, but he was jostled further back in his losses, indicating he needs to stay near he lead for a fighting chance.
Post 2 features simond4’s Tiz A Tornado. He’s one of the more experiences racehorses as he makes start #7. The Tiznow colt broke his maiden at 5 furlongs, earned a third in an allowance, went straight into stakes company (where he won at 5.5 furlongs), ran fifth in another stake, earned third against a tough field in the Smackdown, then was second last out in the GIII Little Tree Stakes. This will be his first time routing. Despite the lack of experience at the distance, I like this guy. Even in his losses he’s ben hanging tough at the end rather than fading into oblivion down the stretch. Pedigree says he should relish the distance, and performances to date don’t contradict. Unless jockey R Grant has a few tricks up his sleeve, watch for Tiz A Tornado to be stalking the pace.
Breaking from post 3 will be Tophatter(GB), a good-looking son of Millenary who appears to be majorly improving at just the right time. Tophatter started his career under the guidance of trainer tenwhisper in dirt sprints, which he was pretty good at (a win and a second) but didn’t really seem to love. A switch to the grass produced a third, but again Tophatter didn’t seem entirely happy. So, back to the dirt, this time at the mile, for his last 2 starts. Finally, something Tophatter loved. He won a nw1x allowance in Dubai with an 81SP, then followed it up last start with an 86-SP win in an Irish listed stake. It’s rather surprising he’s at 24-1 odds, because I would expect perhaps a 90+ performance from this colt if he stays to form. He can close from way back, or he can sit much closer to the pace; the versatility makes him dangerous. Currently ranked #20 in the division, he needs a win to get a BB berth.
Legendary Pegasus (his name, not his title) will start from post 4. Snappa5’s Fusaichi Pegasus colt has had a very logical training and racing schedule. Start short, and gradually stretch out. He broke his maiden at first asking at 5.5. furlongs, and ran second by just a length in the GII Vermont BB Juvenile at 6. Last time out he tried 7 furlongs in the GI Hoserhead and finished 5th albeit just under 3 lengths out. The pattern of losing by successively greater distances worries me, but that’s not that uncommon for horses who need more ground, and Pegasus has been improving SP-wise at every start (he posted an 85 in the Hoserhead). He’s got the speed to be in the mix at the wire. Expect him to go for the lead as he did very effectively in his debut win.
Bigkev’s Persian Lyric(IRE) starts from post 5. The Peintre Celebre colt is the only undefeated starter, with a maiden win and a pair of listed stakes wins to his credit. Ranked #57, Lyric is making his first route start. I suspect he may trip up his perfect record in this one, as his running style shows him typically gunning for the lead and just barely holding off closers. Last start at 7 he held on by just a head; against a bigger field of better horses at a longer distance, one must question his ability to stay the distance. Still, his pedigree says longer is possible, and he has managed to keep a perfect record thus far.
Black Jack Blues, set to break from post 6, is among the highest ranked in the field at #16. Trainer blackswan is staring a possible BB bid in the face and knows it. From four lifetime starts, BJB is undefeated sprinting but a poor performance in his route debut last time out in the GI Kentucky Horsemen Juvenile broke a perfect record and could not have made his trainer confident in the Came Home colt’s talent. When the colt gets his way, he’s a frontrunning speedball. He made the lead in the KyH Juvie, but by the half-pole was completely done. Rumor has it BJB has been spending a lot of time galloping to build stamina; if he’s in shape he could be a real factor. He should easily get the lead, but how long he’ll keep it is a question.
Trainer Camry has his Awesome Again colt Awesome Force in the right place at the right time, and that’s not just post 7. It took the horse three tries to break his maiden, but he finally did in an NWRC-restricted maiden. That was promptly followed by a one and a half length win in a listed stake in Nebraska, and last time out AF took on graded in the GIII Pea Patch. Despite the second-place finish, AFF’s connections had to be thrilled; the colt show every indication of appreciating more ground as he gets it, and at this rate will be in perfect position for the BB if he can get in. The #21 ranking says it’s possible with a win here. AF can close from the clouds or from more a midpack position, so he’ll be sitting back and letting the speedballs burn themselves out while waiting for the right time to strike. Avery good shot to win.
Post 8 will feature Catapulted, a Fantasticat colt trained by theatrical. The colt has had some success sprinting (his record is 5: 2-2-1) but has yet to try a mile plus. He gets that chance here. Luckily he looks like he’ll probably like it. Last start Catapulted tried 6.5 furlongs in the GIII Closest Friends; he was closing well to run third by just a length and a half. The mile may suit him very well. He has good speed figures (including a high of 87 in that GIII) and a good chance to do quite well.
It just wouldn’t be a normal graded juvenile race without a T horse in the field. This one must be normal, then, as pick6 sends forth Well Played Ted(IRE) from the 9th post. Well Played has just one win from 4 starts, but his other 3 races resulted in a pair of seconds and a third. That third was from his last start in the GIII Pea Patch at a mile; he lost by almost 4 lengths and was clearly tiring. As his daddy is Theatrical, the distance should prove no great obstacle for this colt, and perhaps in the last 5 weeks he’s been trained for increased stamina to prevent that exhaustion from setting in at the wrong moment. His SPs are solid (earned a a lifetime-high 87 in the Pea Patch) and looks to generally be a good horse. May not win, but will likely pick up a piece of the purse. Ranked #37 in the division, a win here would not be enough to seal a BB berth, but it would help make the case for one.
Post 10 features a colt with some history. Five Skies(IRE), trained by gallorette, is the fifth offspring of multiple-graded winning mare One Sky, and also the only one of One Sky’s babies still in training. Five Skies is by Giant’s Causeway, and looks to be the best yet from the One Sky dynasty. In 3 starts he has a maiden win, an allowance loss by a quarter-length, and a win by a nose in an 8.5 furlong listed stake. The SPs earned are generally a few points lower than the best of the field, but the excellent bloodlines and very good ontrack performances make this colt one to watch closely as he matures. Despite the colt having won sprinting, one must wonder if the mile will be too short for him to really shine. He’s ranked #33.
Trainer bloodrock saddles horse #11, Indy Gold Jungle. The A.P. Indy colt wowed the racegoers in his first three starts with three straight wins (MSW, allowance, listed stake) but regressed last start in the GIII Closest Friends, losing by over 9 lengths and posting a not-so-good 73SP. IGJ is a speedster who will be challenging Black Jack Blues for that coveted position in front. Unfortunately he hasn’t yet shown he’s fast enough to wrest the lead away from Blues. This is IGJ’s first route, and coming off that performance last time out he’s far from a must-bet position. Will need a big improvement to hit the board, but has earned the right to be here.
Post 12 will hold the field favorite, Non Negative. The A.P. Indy colt is trained by mook. Double N is on the cusp of locking up a BB spot by virtue of his #11 ranking, but the points he would get by winning this race sure wouldn’t hurt. NN has the highest SP in the field (he earned a 92 in winning the GIII Pea Patch at a mile). If he can back that up with a win here, it’s be hard to say he’s not one of the top juvenile sin the sim. NN has a great closing kick and tends to win going away (as he’s done 3 times in 5 starts). The morning line favorite, and my favorite.
The #13 post will hold a puzzle. Grey Light, a son of Stroll trained by jjfalcon, has a good record on paper (2 wins from 4 starts) but has yet to try stakes let alone graded, and has just one start over a mile, but that was on a good track rather than the fast he’ll get in this race. High SP of 74 (from that mile race) is 17 points lower than the best of the rest of the field. He sure has a challenge ahead to succeed in this one. But, with the babies you really have to take your chances where you can, and it’s possible we’ll look back at his form on paper after the race and ask ourselves why he wasn’t at better morning line odds. His versatility (has won on the lead, and stalking) sure can’t hurt.
Breaking from the far outside will be the obligatory Super entry, Bermuda. The Speightstown colt is the fourth offspring of the G-ranked mare Driving For Saint (and the second graded winner of those four). Bermuda won three in a row including a pair of GIIIs before disappointing in the GI Kentucky Horsemen Juvenile last out. Whether the problem was the distance or something else is unknown. After 5 weeks off, rumor has it Bermuda is in great health and ready to run. That should answer the distance question. In all of his wins, Bermuda stayed close to but not quite on the pace; it wouldn’t surprise if he used a similar tactic here.
It’s so difficult to handicap juvenile races. So many 2yos are making huge leaps in maturity this time of year that handicapping them is almost a futile effort, and you might as well throw darts rather than try to seriously rank them. Still, I’ll take a stab at picking 4 colts to run in the top 3, with no claims as to order of finish. Non Negative stands shoulders above this field based purely of his last race. If he can duplicate it, he’s hard to beat. Awesome Force is improving steadily and should be around at the wire. Tophatter’s versatililty makes him a must-consider. Five Skies fills out my picks. He’s a colt with a bright future ahead.