Stretching The Sophomores

Eight 3-year-olds will make the long trip around the fast dirt track in the 1 ¾ mile Every Monday Stakes (Grade III) in New York this weekend.  In general, it’s a well-bred for distance group.  In particular:

Release The Beast (Alysheba x Swain [IRE] x Danzig), a homebred for owner/trainer piglet, will break from the 1 hole.  Piglett has an interesting stable – it’s full with 10 runners, including 6 2yos and 3 3yos.  He’s a very well traveled colt, making his 18^th start of the year.  This will be the longest distance he’s attempted; the Beast managed two stakes placings early in the year, at a bit over a mile.  His best speed figure, 92, came in a second place finish in an allowance race at 1 ¼ mile.  Rider W. Sherman has no wins in 2006.  The odds at 11/1 seem surprisingly short. 

From the 2 post position, airrav is sending Sky Rahy (Rahy x Nijinsky II x Kris S.), who has been off the board only once this year.  The compact bay colt has won half of his starts at a mile or over, and comes into today’s contest off three straight wins, including a 4 length victory in Oregon’s Mississippi Niner Stakes at this same distance in his last start.  He is also coming in off 7 weeks’ rest.  R. Foster, a 3 year journeyman, has a lifetime win percentage of 10.9%, although at 7.9% for the current year, he’s running a bit behind schedule.  At 8/1, he’s got a chance to hit the board.

B. Ryan, a consistent 4 year journeyman rider, will break from the 3 hole atop ih8u’s grey colt Malachi Constant (Cozzene x Storm Cat x Danehill).  This lightly raced colt has never finished off the board in his 7 starts.  He seems to like distance, although this race will be the furthest distance he’s tried.  He shows no speed figures over 90, but never off the board is not to be sneezed at.  Ih8u has quite a track record, with a 20% win percentage, and an impressive 52% in the money.  The morning line on the grey is 10/1.

Chestnut Urko’s Roots (IRE) by Montjeu (IRE) x Doctor Crest (Peintre Celebre [IRE] x Second Bar) has tackled today’s distance twice, with a pair of second place finishes to his credit.  His speed figures aren’t impressive, but he certainly appears able to handle the distance.  Owner/breeder/trainer urko1 (somehow the name isn’t a surprise) has engaged veteran G. Smith to ride, despite his 4.5% win record this year.  At 23/1, he’s the longest shot on the board. 

Battlers offers up Urban Sakhee (Sakhee x Fappiano x Buckpasser) who has run a 90 or greater speed figure in 3 of his 4 most recent starts.  This will be his second stakes attempt; in the first he finished 8^th in the Little Nijinsky Stakes at a mile on the turf, and the colt is definitely faster on dirt.  He’ll carry 9/2 odds and veteran rider N. Painter, who is having another solid year in 2006.  They’ll break from post position 5.

Post position 6 will go to Bourbon St. Blues (IRE) (Galileo [IRE] x Blushing Groom [FR] x Roberto), a two time stakes winner, second in this year’s New Yorker S. (Grade I) at 1 ½ miles.  The bay colt is currently ranked #5 in the long distance category for 3yo colts on dirt.  Talented 10 year veteran B. Childs will ride super10’s bred-to-go-long colt, who is co-second choice at 7/2. 

Top money earner in the field is #7, Worst Day Ever, a son of Kingmambo, based on Havre de Grace, by Sadler’s Wells x Secretariat.  Owner/trainer/breeder lenny16 (20% wins, 43% in the money), whose name seems hauntingly familiar, sends his blueblood to the post today off a second place finish in the Grade I Brussels Sprout Stakes at 1 ½ miles with a 104 speed figure.  The colt’s last two races have earned him 100+ speed figures, and he’s rated #8 three year old on dirt at a distance. The handsome bay won at first asking as a 2yo, and took two restricted stakes this year.  He’ll go off at 2/1, and will have an advantage from the services of top rider N. Lawton, a 16-year veteran with a 17% lifetime win percentage; this year, Lawton has ridden 21.8% winners.

Hostility, a chestnut filly (Toccet x Sally for Nijinsky, a daughter of Forty Niner x Nijinsky II) ranked #26 for 3yo fillies long on dirt, will take on the boys today.  She shipped in from the other hemisphere for today’s race.  Owner bigrama clearly has a lot of confidence in his little girl.  But then, she is a solid stakes performer, with 2 stakes wins earlier in the year against her own sex, including a strong second place finish in the Canadian Well Memorial Stakes in her last start.  Journeyman rider P. Davis will steer her, and at 7/2 she is co-second choice. 

It appears that the strongest part of the field will be in the outside posts, with Worst Day Ever looking the clear favorite.  For value at longer odds, however, Sky Rahy is the only stakes winner at this distance.