EAAA vs Epsom Downs Residency Challenge- 9F Dirt 3yo+
In what will no doubt be a fierce battle of the residencies, this race could be the difference between victory and defeat. Reputations are on the line and there’s everything to play for. So who will win? Why don’t we take a look at the line-up:
South Philly (moleh) 10/1
This immaculately bred Silver Deputy colt ran a great race 2 back, leading all the way only to get headed in the final strides clocking a 104 SP on a good track. On that form he could shake the best in this race but his last effort was disappointing and he looks to prefer the wet ground. Will need to run back to his best here but his chances may have been ‘dampened’ without the off track.
The End Forty (bbudgies) 25/1
This 4 year old Strike Gold colt has produced some very handy speed figures over the 8F range but has struggled at times to go past the mile. Ran a 95 SP last time out but the extra distance will test him here against a high-class field. This guy’s name is not a blessing as those last forty strides or so could see him slipping to the back of the pack.
Bolweiser (epsomtj) 99/1
Unfortunately this guy’s odds reflect his chances in the race. Unlikely to do better than to beat home a few stragglers on form. Has only ever won 2 races from 61 starts and he isn’t getting any younger is clearly out-classed here.
Shark Bite (coolk) 7/1
It has been said before (from another biased journalist) that any horse from the coolk or kevoman stables brings with it a tag basically advertising itself. This Aldebaran colt is no exception to the rule and has certainly been payed respect by the bookies opening up at 7/1 in an 18 horse field. Will settle well back and make a late charge for the line. Knowing how well late closers perform in these races he should hit the board here.
Tworedtworedtworah (epsom) 12/1
Trying to say this Red Ransom progeny’s name quickly will get you tongue-tied after a while but that might be amended if he wins this Saturday (in the form of a nickname). He has performed best over sprints and has only had one unimpressive run at this distance. Probably out of the equation with the extra distance but cannot be totally discounted with some reasonable recent performances over the mile.
Follow Your Stars (pocket8) 33/1
For those of us who aren’t psychics or magicians of some kind, reading this E Dubai colt’s form in nigh impossible. His recent runs have been rather disappointing and yet not even 6 months ago he was running high 90’s and even a 101 SP. Could end up anywhere in this company. If he decides to jump back to his form from early in the year he will be a real chance. If not, well maybe he might finish by Sunday. Ignore the long odds; this guy isn’t without a chance.
Two Well Fans (bigscoobi) 9/1
Another big contender for this race, this 4 year old colt out of Lear Fan is coming off a fantastic effort last time out, wiring the field with a 104 SP. With that kind of run, this race may well be over by the 7 furlong mark but with some incredibly strong late closers in the field, he may just find the stretch a little bit too long. Strong claims on this race and can be expected to be right there at the finish.
Deliver The Goods (cocalico) 33/1
Not a lot can be said about this Beat Hollow colt form-wise. He’s only run this distance twice before and one of those was as a 3 year old. The most recent effort produced a 91 SP in a 50k Starter where he was soundly beaten. Could run high 90’s on his day, but that probably won’t be good enough against this competition. A top 5 placing would be a good effort here.
Exemption (cuthbert1) 8/1
An ultra consistent performer, this Forestry colt has a big future ahead of him. He hasn’t finished out of the money in his last 7 runs and even then was an unlucky 4th against tough opposition. Will be towards the front all the way and if he’s allowed to take an easy lead then he won’t be passed until the finishing line is in sight. Deserves the short odds and will be tough to beat.
Lucky’s Glorious (peachman) 31/1
This lightly-raced 4 year old Panoramic colt has really had only one disappointing race in his career but it was his last race. He didn’t cover the 10 furlongs and will appreciate the step back but whether or not he can reproduce or improve on his 96 SP last time at this distance is still to be seen. Oozes class and deserves his spot in this field but will have to produce something special to win here.
Arabian Show (cooldude) 13/1
That’s right folks; there is a filly in this race and one with an impressive record too. Her last 10 runs at this distance have produced speed figures in the 90’s so consistency is no problem for this E Dubai filly. At her best she’s capable of beating the boys but with the class of this field it will be an uphill battle for her. I’m predicting a mid 90’s SP here (wouldn’t that be a surprise…) and she should beat more than half of the males in this field.
Enough Snatch (scootboy) 11/1
With the best trainer in the contest for turning gold into lead, Enough Snatch has only a few more weeks left before he too runs erkel against Olympians. As for his chances here, he has beaten some reasonable horses recently but hasn’t seen a field of this class in a while. Will be hard pressed to perform well against this field but if he can reproduce his recent SP figures then he’s not without a chance here.
Second Act (magoo2912) 14/1
This guy would need a pack of psychics working in tandem to figure out how he’s going to run. Coming off a fantastic 4 year old season which produced 6 wins, this Kingmambo progeny speed figures have gone from great to not-so-great and back again. He has won with good performances and bad alike, but if he brings his A-game this week he will be right up there. If not, look for him towards the back. There are no in-betweens with this horse; it’s either fantastic or terrible so the verdict might ride on this week’s performance.
Codorniu (pogs) 6/1
Enter the favourite. Of all the horses in this race this guy is the most complete package. Breeding, class and the speed figures to back it up, there’s no telling what he will achieve in the next few years. His last race nearly resulted in a win against incredible opposition; his last 4 performances have produced triple digit speed figures and if you’re not impressed by a Deputy Minister x Black Tie Affair x Hennesy bred horse then don’t tell your wife or mother what you really think of their cooking. Deserved favourite with a great chance to show off his class in a strong field. Look for him flashing home late.
Anita Blake (bargainbin) 14/1
Stakes placed and the second of two fillies, this Not For Love filly is hard to beat on her day. Having won her maiden against the boys, she is yet to repeat that feat although she has certainly shown some class against her own sex. Recently she managed a very impressive 101 SP over 8F to win a nice NW2y allowance which isn’t bad considering earlier this year she was in a 25k claimer. Against this kind of field it’s always an uphill battle to beat the boys but this filly could challenge here if it’s her day and certainly deserves a chance against the boys on a surface and distance that suits her.
Gardiner (kingswood) 8/1
Looking at this awesome Capote-sired steed’s record, some may ask why he’s at such long odds. He has clocked by far the highest SP of any in this field with a 112 producing his first (and only) stakes win. That was only last year and his last 2 starts have produced good speed figures. The only horse that could really whitewash this field if he’s at his best. Saying that, he will have to produce his best to win here. Hard to ignore his record over the past year and a major threat here.
I Dig You (capotecat9) 24/1
This You And I colt has yet to do anything to compare him with the best of this field. Consistently in the low to mid 90’s speed figure wise, it will take something special for him to win here with a triple digit figure probably needed to take this race.
Musicality (kevoman4) 27/1
It’s not often you’ll see a kevoman stabled horse at odds like these and don’t believe them for a minute. Although he’s only a 3 year old, he’s sired by none other than Sadler’s Wells and he seems to love the classic distance races. Has run over 9.5 furlongs twice for 95 and 99 speed figures. He certainly doesn’t deserve his outsider status and is the best value in the race. Watch for his unique slow-nagging-closing style before he releases his sharp sprint up the stretch. Will not be far away.
A tough field to pick with plenty of uncertainties and the opportunity for some of the underrated horses in the field to prove themselves.
As for my tips, I’ll go with Codorniu from Gardiner and Exemption leading the way for a historic win for the EAAA residency, all bias intended.
scootboy