THE CASTLE FRED MEMORIAL

Race ID:2965.3610
Race # 10
The CASTLE FRED(IRE) MEMORIAL
Stakes
A Mile and One Sixteenth

Firm Turf

$45,000
all horses, 3 years old and up

PP        Age      Horse                           Owner              Odds     Pedigree
1          5M        SIR RED ROCK(IRE)      barndog                        7/1       Rock Of Gibraltar x Red Ransom x Sir Ivor

Record: 26 races: 9-4-5: (wins: MSW + 6 allowances + 2 Stakes)

This 5y old colt started only racing last year posting a 78SP in a small field which was sufficient to break his maiden. His second race was an impressive improvement: in a full field allowance he started at the back, improved in the stretch and won in a speed of 102. Instead of going to Stakes his owner kept him in allowances the next races where he kept hitting the board and posting 100+ speeds. From then he was switched between allowances and Stakes and tried on Dirt. He did more than decent as his record is showing. His last Stakesruns where not that good anymore and his owner decided to run him in an allowance last time where he won again. Might be not good enough to go for the win in this race.

2          5M        HUGE MON                    ezpimpin           8/1       Maria’s Mon x Atticus x Alydar

Record: 27 races: 7-3-1 (wins: MSW + 2 claimers + 3 allowances + 1 Stakes)

Out of a B graded Mare (already gave birth to 3 stakeswinners) this colt unlike his mama is a real late bloomer. Made his debut at 3 on dirt posting a lousy 58speed. The switch to turf improved the speed but it looked like no much promise. Broke his maiden at 4 on 9f Turf in speed of 72 which confirmed that he did not seem to have it to make it. His results at 4 where not really good and even this year he started only to win in the low claimers. It probably was a surprise to the owner that this guy suddenly won an allowance in a speed of 105 and since then he is on a roll posting two other allowancewins and a Stakes. The G3 was over his head. One to watch.

3          5M        MARYLAND MOVER        terp                  9/1       Dynaformer x Nodouble x Raise A Native

Record: 39 races: 13-6-2 (wins: MSW + 11 allowances + 1 Stakes)

In my opinion the nicest breed of the pack. Containing no inbreeding in the first 5 generations which is a rarity nowadays and out of the in the Sim underrated Dynaformer. Plenty of experience, but mainly at allowance level as you can see in his records. This guy is a very usefull bpmachine to his owner. In terms of speed it looks like he has his best period behind him but he still won 3 allowances this year. It is also obvious that everytime he tries to run further than 8.5F he hits a wall which he has not been able to tear down. The distance in this race is ideal, but I feel he is lacking the experience this year on Stakeslevel: it also must be said that his allowancewins this year were in races with no more than 8 horses. All little signs that tell me this Stakesrace is a little but too much asked at this time for this one. Hopefully for the owner I am wrong.

4          3M        HR DE FOND                 hracinggem       20/1     Chateau Royal x Le Fabuleux x Native Prospector

Record: 13 races: 3-1-2 (wins: MSW + 1 allowance + 1 Stakes)

This one definitely is a Bargain Breed and clearly the best horse by his Sire Chateau Royal. Ran his first race late as 2y old and recorded an impressive 88SP in a full field on 8.5 turf. That win most likely got some people dreaming and he was entered in the Equinics where he could not live up to the silent expectations. It took a few races to recover from that disappointment but meanwhile he finished 3^rd in a Stakes, won a Stakes on 9f and finished 3^rd in a G2 (full field) in a 99SP. His last three Stakesraces were however disappointing. I have my doubts that this guy will run in the picture this race. He also was not able to run a +100SP yet and his form is not so good.

5          3M        BALD METAPHOR                       olebaldy                       13/1     Grand Slam x Taiki Sherlock x Dancing Spree

Record: 13 races: 4-6-0 (wins: MSW + 2 allowances + 1 Stakes)

When checking on this horse I first checked on the dam. I saw that the dam was a bargainbred done by the same trainer. The dam was good as a 2y old and early 3y old and then it was over. She did won a Stakes in sprinting on turf. The best speed she ever recorded was 99 on 8 turf. Her firstborn now is a 3 y old colt who I think is still progressing. By choosing Grand Slam as Sire a lote of inbreeding was created (Prospector, Key to the Mint, Northern Dancer, Nijinsky, Buckpasser, Graustark, bold ruler…) but all these great names together seem to give a very good result. Ran a 95 SP two races ago in a G1 and managed to finish 5^th. Recorded his highest speed in his last race: 103SP in a Stakes on 8.5 Turf which resulted in a 2^nd Place. That race was also his first race in a 3y+ and he beat several older horses. Now again he has the same kind of race and he looks to be a very strong contender. He has an unraced halfbrother and I saw the trainer again chose for a son of Gone West as Sire: clever thinking and I would have done the same thing.  I think in this race he will prove against older horses he is one to watch out for in the future. Has the topjockey on his back which might give him wings.

6          4M        KTULU(IRE)                   knightmare       14/1     High Chapparal x Seeking The Gold x Raise A Native

Record: 25 races: 5-6-2 (wins: MSW + 4 allowances)

Who am I to comment on a breed from Knightmare? Anyway : very expensively bred, and you should not get a cripple grandpa with a breed like that.  Broke his maiden on turf in his first start but did not have a very splendid year as a 3y old: 15 races with only 2 times a +90 speed. His record this year however is much better: 3 allowancewins and 5 places in allowances. I do not understand the last race when he sprinted in a G2 and got nowhere but overall a very usefull horse in the allowances. I do not know what his Stakesresult will be as this will be his first Stakesrace on this classic distance in a year. For me an outsider, which is likely to set the pace.

7          5M        AWESOME AFFAIR         millerfar2          9/2       Awesome Again x A.P. Indy x Black Tie Affair

Record: 28 races: 10-2-6 (wins: MSW + 5 allowances + 3 Stakes + 1 G3)

Very very beautifully bred son of Awesome Again with the most experience of the bunch today. His carreer started rolling as a 3y old when he was switched to Turf: 3 allowancewins and Stakeswin in a speed of 114 on 9 turf. As 4y old he did better in general: 1 allowance , 1 G3 and a Stakes; never finished out of top 4 and never recorded a lesser speed than 100 with exception of his last race: a G2. This year he still is lightly raced and he is not doing so bad: 1 allowancewin, 1 Stakeswin and two other Stakespodiumplaces. His speed looks to be less than last year but he still is very competitive and his last race proves he is one to be watched. Second best Jockey of the season on his back.

8          4M        FINAL FAN                     nextbonus         9/1       Lear Fan x Shadeed x Be My Guest

Record: 10 races: 5-0-1 (wins: MSW + 3 allowances + 1 G3)

This 4y old only started racing this year (I guess he was bred late last year as 3y old) and has thus run much less as most horses of his age. Broke his maiden in his first race which immediately followed with an allowancewin on 9f. The stretch to 10f was not really successful and also the switch to dirt proved that it is a turfer. Looks like he needed those two lesser races to start rolling again : two allowancewins and immediately a G3 win and a 103 SP. Interesting is that the G3 win was on 8.5f Turf in same circumstances as this race today. It must be said that the last 3 races were a bit less successful in the results but his speeds are very good and this race is a step down from the G2 he ran a couple of weeks ago which was a bit above his head.

9          4M        DESERT STAR(IRE)        super2              9/1       High Chaparral x Storm Cat x Sharpen Up

Record: 19 races: 6-3-2 (wins: MSW + 5 allowances)

Firstborn of a Storm Cat mare and only horse in this lot that has not been able to win a Stakesrace yes. Very competitive in the allowanceraces but nowhere to be seen in all his Stakes- and Gradedtries: will be very difficult to beat some of these more experienced runner. Did record his best speed ever last race with a 104SP on the turfmile so he definitely has got the form.

10.       4M        GREEN MT. STATE         capetown          5/1       Hennessy x Capote x Raise A Native

Record: 28 races: 6-6-4 (wins: MSW + 4 allowances + 1 Stakes)

Third horse in this race with Raise A Native as DDS and again a beautiful breed without any inbreeding (makes me think I must try some of those).  Started his carreer on dirt and broke his maiden with a good 92SP on the mile. Never was competitive in the dirtallowances but he liked the switch to turf: hit the board 8 out of 12 times last year of which 1 win. This year he continued these results and when he started posting +100 speeds his owner rightfully decided to enter him in Stakes. He won one, placed in his last race but the G3 was a bit too much for him. Looks like he is at full maturity now and will be competitive in today’s race. Only doubt I have is the distance: 8.5F might be just a fraction too far.

11.       5M        DELIGHT DELTA            goldtiger           7/2       Green Desert x Fuzzy x Lyphard

Record: 26 races: 11-1-5 (wins: MSW + 4 allowances + 6 Stakes)

The last post in this race is for the bookies favourite. He did not have much luck with his jockey so that is a handicap to start with. Started late as three with a 92SP which broke his maiden. His second race was very good with an impressive 105SP. Did well on dirt also, but till now only ran 1 race on the dirt. Last year he kept improving posting regular +100 speeds and won a restricted Stakes. The open Stakes got him in the money but not more than that, until his last race as a 4y old where he won his first Stakes which got the ball rolling. This year he kept improving: was third in a G3 and won 3 Stakes in a row. His second last race he posted a 109SP and his last race was tried in a G1 which only got him a 7^th Place. His last 10 races were all at a mile. He now has to run a bit further but that can not be much of a problem. Indeed a big favourite in this race, only pity about the jockey.

Prediction: very very difficult to make a prediction in this small purse STAKES. I am thinking that AWESOME AFFAIR has the best chance in this race and has a small advantage over the others. But there the chances are pretty equal. I think GREEN MT. STATE, DELIGHT DELTA and FINAL FAN will battle for the podium and the big outsider could be the young BALD METAPHOR