3y olds going for 16f: step into the unknown
THE NEWMARKET GOLD CUP
It will be quite a challenge for the eight 3y olds that will face the difficult task to complete 16 furlongs as fast as possible and win the the first NEWMARKET GOLD CUP. I think it will be a very interesting race as this is just one big questionmark. One thing is certain: one of the eight will win. What is not certain and for me the most interesting about this race is whether this residency has members which are able to breed for this distance and whether there are some of these 3 year olds that will show us something promising for the future.
1. GOING(IRE): still a maiden, bargain bred and up till now has not shown any spark. His owner did already do a terrific job in placing this horse two times but he also knows that this horse is just a claimer. But hey, as long as she manages to run in the first five in any race she is worth the bps. I do not give this one any chance tomorrow. Odds: 13/1; managed to get a good jockey though
2. IM A SCOOBI DOO: broke his maiden in his last race as a 2y old on a mile and has since then run in allowances without too much luck. Only in the two second races he managed to earn a little prize. The allowanceraces are obviously too far reached for this one as he finishes constantly at respectable distance. But in this race you never know. This is a wide open race and his breeding clearly contains the stamina for longer races. What I do find a pity about this breed is that the DS is Sadler’s, the DDS is Secretariat, but the Sire is so weak. Off course you never know but with such a combination of DS and DDS I would also have spent bps on a better sire. But for this race: definitely one to watch. Odds: 3/1
3. MANLEY RIVER II(IRE): 17 races under the belt and still a maiden. I think that says it all. This one ran 9 races as 2 y old and looks overraced. Two things that restrain me from saying that we won’t see this one in the race: the breed definitely contains stamina; the horse never tested on a longer distance than 8.5 f, which I think is strange since he already ran so many races. Odds: 13/1
4. NIGHTFLIER(IRE): it is difficult to comment on my own horse. I did not really have a horse in my stables of which I think he can handle 16f. I chose for NIGHTFLIER. He also is still a maiden and has not show too much in these races but he managed to run a prize in 4 of his 5 races. He also already has run 9 and 10 furlongs on TURF and you can see that his endjump is not bad. This guy gets better when distance increases. Off course the big question is can he handle 16f? In his breed the names Sadler’s, Mill Reef, Ribot, Graustark should definitely tell you what this guy is bred for. I thank Lid for giving me the chance to test this guy on 16f. I personally think he definitely won’t run last unless if he gets injured and I think he can finish on the board. Odds: 7/2
5. MISS CUDDLY(IRE): this is the third race for this filly and we have to admit that in her first two races she showed absolutely nothing. Sorry for the owner but I think I have to be short on this one. No chance and the odds also tell this. Off course you never know. Odds: 29/1
6. KATABATIC(GB): also a filly and also 2 races under the belt. Unlike MISS CUDDLY she improved from 6f to 8f and managed to finish 5th in the last race. Whether she will be able to beat some colts in this race remains to be see, but also she has stamina in her breed and I do think she will show what she got. A little outsider to hit the board in my opinion. Odds: 11/1; pity about the jockey though
7. DISHING(GB): clearly the big favourite for this race. The only one with 2 won races of which an allowance. Say no more: that allowance win was even on 12f and in a speed of 83. There is no doubt that this is the one to beat. There is but one thing that can keep this one from victory: that last race was last week. So is this 3y old colt recovered from his 12f victory last week? If yes, then we have a winner; if no then some others will definitely give everything to come over the line first. Odds: 8/5
8. SADLER’S RAINBOW: when I first read over the names of the horses in this race, she immediately jumped out. The names Sadler’s Wells and Rainbow Quest do not lie: this baby can run long. Looking at her past results she already ran 15 races of which 5 on the board. She also ran a lot as a 2y old in my opinion, definitely with this pedigree. I would think she will better with age. She won her maiden early this year on 9 furlongs. Her allowance races were not splendid with one exception where she ran third on a mile (I do not take the second place into account in a cpu-allowance). I do not know how her trainer set her jockeysettings but if she runs according to her natural behaviour and takes the lead she won’t stand a chance. But maybe she is on “Come off the back” and then I can not make a prediction. Odds 5/1
Summary: one big favourite DISHING, a few that stand no chance and fill up the field, and a few that have a good chance. There are no supertalents and the quality is not outstanding (only a few broke their maiden yet) in this race which makes it very open. I do hope a talent will be discovered.
My prediction:
First: IM A SCOOBI DOO
Second: NIGHTFLIER (I silently hope first but that would be too optimistic)
Third: DISHING (I know he is clear favourite but I have my doubts since he has had so little rest)