SMACKDOWN 8T 4+F/M
The second owner-restricted race in this weekend’s Smacktacular is an even mile on the lawn for older fillies and mares. It’s looking like a competitive race, but I have to give a grudging edge to Kentucky (I’m a Vermonster, myself). They have the favorite and a couple of other nice runners. Vermont is presenting some possibilities, too, but unfortunately I don’t see a lot of hope for the GR Simsters in this one. If I’m wrong, the Simster can (and I’m sure will) feel free to mock me publicly and tirelessly.
TEAM KENTUCKY
BACK IN YOUR ARMS #1 Iant 4/1 Kentucky throws down with a truly magnificent mare, a Kingmambo who has won her last 3, including two Grade 3s. On top of that, the hillbillies managed to land the services of ace jock D Givins, who wins at a 24% clip. I suppose the biggest knock on this mare is that she could bounce off that huge 111 figure she ran LTO. But she’s well-rested with a 6-week break and with such a stellar jock aboard, she’s clearly the one to beat.
MERRY MARA #2 Kk1039 12/1 Next door to the favorite will be teammate Merry Mara. She’s very nice in long sprints, but hasn’t hit the board in three route attempts. Nor has she shown much flair for top-level competition. If she digs deep, she could conceivably bring home some honors, but this just doesn’t look like her best situation.
ARKANSAW DIAMOND #8 Simond 8/1 Seeking the Gold mare is another nice sprinter who will probably run out of gas as the girls head for home. A graded winner, she’s a speedy girl who won’t be in her element in this race.
K’S PANACHE #12 Kuovadis 10/1 Finished third to teammate Back in Your Arms last time out. Before that she won the Grade 2 Adelaide Mile. She likes the distance and is a tough competitor. Unfortunately, this FuPeg daughter landed a jockey who’s winning at only a 5% clip. Nonetheless, she is seldom off the board in recent starts and has to be taken very seriously as a place or show contender.
CRYPTO MESA #13 Sjmeola6 8/1 Kentucky rounds out their team with another really nice sprinter. Did anyone tell them how long this race is? Actually, this mare has only routed twice, so she may have some ability that hasn’t shown itself yet. She has a good jock aboard, so this closer should get a good trip and might get going in time to take home a piece of the prize.
TEAM VERMONT
GIANT SOUVENIR #6 souvenirs 25/1 Vermont has the dubious honor of presenting the race’s two longest shots, and this is one of them. She’s actually a promising little mare, with 4 wins and 2 seconds in only 8 starts. This is a big step up for her, though, and it is likely to be too much for her at this point in time. I expect her to finish respectably, but am not looking for her in the top 3.
ASH HIGHWAY #7 Socalman 19/1 Rock-solid allowance mare who is in deep here. She’ll try her heart out, but will almost certainly be outclassed.
LIBERTY TREE #9 Kelsobarn 10/1 Veteran of many overnight stakes is taking a step up here, but she’s a gritty, fast horse who is seldom off the board. She’ll be receiving the skilled guidance of P. Cadigan, who should bring out her best. Not the flashiest horse in the race, but a very honest horse who could very well do some damage.
MAMBO BIRDIE #10 Knowlton 6/1 Vermont proudly presents the race’s second choice, a Kingmambo daughter who has won her last 3. They were all allowances, but she has earned some very big speed figures. She is a grade 1 winner who has a history of benefiting from dirt-turf switches like the one she’s making this week. She also has a superb jockey aboard and is well-rested. I like her chances a lot.
MONTOYA #15 Ecosse 74/1 Ex-claimer takes one for the team.
TEAM GR SIMSTERS
LILY MANSFIELD #3 Bigmoose2 14/1 Successful mare has mostly sprinted, though she has fared pretty well in routes, too. Ran well and won in a mile-long overnight stakes last time out, but seemed to benefit from the off track. Capable of running a big race, but is probably outgunned in this one.
SMACKDOWN #4 Peeps5 14/1 Ambitiously-named Irish-bred mare has placed in graded company and is a solid, consistent horse. She’d need her best race to be a factor here, but it’s not entirely out of her reach. Should get a solid ride from D Sherman.
BUCK WILD #5 Lenny11 15/1 Kingmambo mare won a graded race at 8.5f recently, so we know she has it in her, but she has also run some pretty dismal races. Won easily in a small field last time out, but it’s a huge step up here. At her best, she’s very, very good, but she’d really need a top effort to be competitive.
COMPENSATION #11 Lenny12 9/1 GR Simsters’ best hope comes in the form of this Seeking the Gold mare, a grade I winner who was a very competitive third in graded company LTO. She’s run a couple of off races recently, but if she can find her way back to her best form she will be a major threat in this race. Keep an eye on her to come from a few lengths back.
QUEEN DOMINIQUE #14 Dragon1 23/1 Mare has had good success in longer sprints, especially in overnight stakes. Last race shows she may have a real future as a mudder. This weekend, though, she’s looking at a race that’s a little too long and a little too tough for her.
Good luck everyone! Especially Vermont!