Tenacious V Looking to Smackdown Rivals on the Turf!

I’m not sure why but this reporter always ends up with the turf fillies. In my stables and on assignment! This should be a doozy of a race to cover though because we are looking at 3 year old fillies who will be going a mile on the firm turf course in Kentucky. This is the return of the Smackdown series, a residency challenge between the GR Simsters, the Kentucky Horsemen, and the Pastures crew from Vermont. All three of these residencies are strong with well respected trainers and quality horses. The only black mark on them is their unfortunate tendency to brag and outdo one another in insults as Saturday draws near. Keep those kids away from the shedrow, Mother! Or at least cover their ears!

Now, as a member of the Kentucky Horsemen, I could be prejudiced. In fact, I’m positive that I am. But none of MY horses are running in this race so I should be able to keep some perspective on the runners. However, if I get off track a little and start to sound like I have Tourette’s Syndrome, I’m sure you all will forgive me for being loyal to my fellow Kentuckians.

The field of 15 for this turf stakes is chock full of the best the sim has to offer on grass. There isn’t a colt in the sim whose bloodlines are superior to what these girls boast. Time, effort, and perhaps even real cash went into some of these breedings. The morning line favorite, Grade 1 winner, and number 1 ranked filly for classic turf distances is trainer peeps’ Tenacious V. The co-second favorite is also from one of peeps’ barns – Captivating. Those 2 fillies represent the GR Simsters and are part of a gaudy 1-2-3 entry that includes Lamentations from trainer astapor. It’s clear to this reporter that those GR Simsters are enjoying flaunting their well ranked fillies as well as all their stakes points. But as my mama used to say, the bigger they are, the harder they fall!

Sharing the second favorite spot is sjmeola’s Sun In Action for Kentucky. The hardworking, hard playing members of the Kentucky Horsemen arrived with backup for their best turfer – the fleet of hoof Elfin Magic from the hot2trot barn. Vermont, the other backwoods residency, also brought in a prime filly for this race – trainer novanora’s Nob Hill. All the fillies in this race look good, even the ones with longer odds, but it truly appears to this reporter that it’s city versus country in this race. The solidly bred, solid performers from the backwoods of Kentucky and Vermont against the flashy graded winner from GR Simsters. Add it all together with the smack these residencies are talkin’ (stuff about knee pads and lifting skirts!) and you’ve got a recipe for excitement and what promises to be a field that will set the turf on fire in Kentucky this Saturday!

The Field:

PP1: Running Scared(IRE) – (EL PRADO(IRE) x ROBERTO x RAISE A NATIVE) – Bred and trained by crazyjoe of the GR Simsters. Jockey Coleman has an 11% win rate which is modest but he’s by no means the best jock in Kentucky. This filly is ranked 480 and is coming off a 4th place finish in the HOOTERS WEST Stakes. Her last win was in 2818 in an allowance and her last stakes win was in 2755. Even with her excellent bloodlines and her recent step up in speed, at 10/1 she’s a possibility for a top 3 finish but it’s doubful as she’s a pace stalker who may end up hung out to dry in the stretch.

PP2: Ocean Runaway – (STORMY ATLANTIC x SMOKE GLACKEN x BEST TURN) – Bred and trained by sjfarms of Kentucky. Jockey Ketron has a 12% win rate which is better than the majority of the jocks in this race. Ocean Runaway is unranked and at 16/1 for this race. She’s coming off of a pair of wins and a place in allowances. Her most recent win was on an off turf track where she showed a surprising turn of hoof for the wet going. If this were going to be an off track I’d put some money on her myself to finish in the top 3 but with the fast going and her come from the back style, I’d say she doesn’t have the speed to catch the best in the stretch.

PP3: Captivating – (VINDICATION x MR. PROSPECTOR x SADLER’S WELLS) – Bred and trained by peeps3 of the GR Simsters. Jockey Sipe has had some moments of brilliance in his career but he’s also been known to show up at the track hungover which accounts for him only having a 9% win rate. If he’s hungover on Saturday (which is a possibility if the Simsters throw a big party prior to the races) that could affect this filly’s serious chances. Ranked 605, this regally bred filly is coming off a win in the No Options Stakes and 4th and 5th place finishes in two G3 races. If she’s ready to be a contender on Saturday she’ll come from just off the pace. If she’s not ready to fly, you’ll find her farther back. At 6/1 she’s definitely a good value but she may not have all the breaks in her favor.

PP4: Colorado Desert – (STORM CAT x SADLER’S WELLS x MR. PROSPECTOR) – Bred and trained by lasthope of Vermont. Jockey McCarthy has an 11% win rate which is good but may not be enough to keep this girl from being the rabbit in this race. Ranked 620, this daughter of Storm Cat has the best breeding in the race. However, she’s a front runner with a case of seconditis that doesn’t bode well for this race. Since she isn’t the speediest of the fillies either, there is a definite chance that she will go to the front with several faster fillies and burn herself out long before the stretch. By giving her 39/1 odds, the track handicappers seem to feel the same.

PP5: Benefactress(IRE) – (GENEROUS(IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT) – Bred and trained by Kentuckian hornedfrog. Jockey Blood has a 15% win rate and even on a horse with 18/1 odds he’s been known to make things happen. Ranked 28, this filly is one I personally like. Sure the long odds make her a good value for betting but even without that I’d like this one. A former G3 winner, she’s been off her form since the Equinics, something that often happens to those runners. She’s won coming from behind and also from stalking the pace so there’s no telling what her jock will have her do come Saturday. It’s also entirely possible that she’ll come out of her slump and run brilliantly. If that happens, look out Tenacious V!

PP6: Wind Viper – (MORE THAN READY x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB) x ALYDAR) – Bred and trained by buffy7 of the GR Simsters. Jockey Neely has a 13% win rate and is known for his ability to follow orders exactly. As part of the GR Simsters entry this 12/1 filly has a penchant for front running. Ranked 590, she’s coming off an allowance win where she showed more speed than she had previously. It’s a possibility that she’s placed here as a rabbit but if she shows improvement from her last race she could still be hanging in there at the stretch.

PP7: Lamentations – (WAR CHANT x SADLER’S WELLS x SHIRLEY HEIGHTS(GB)) – Bred and trained by astapor of the GR Simsters. Jockey Sherman is yet another jock with an 11% win rate which evens out the competition somewhat. This filly is ranked 117 and the handicappers obviously like her chances as she’s 8/1. Her last win was an allowance in 2825 but she’s had a couple of place finishes in stakes recently. She’s obviously a darling of the Simsters but she’s also another filly with flashy speed and a front running style. Against her own residency’s favorite, this doesn’t auger well for her chances in the stretch. If her jock doesn’t save something for the stretch run she could be out of the money.

PP8: Timetobitethepony – (HIGH YIELD x EXCLUSIVE NATIVE x EXPLODENT) – Bred and trained by sjfarms of Kentucky. Jockey Drewrey is the next of the 11% jocks. An unranked allowance runner, this filly comes to the race with 14/1 odds off of an allowance win at 9 furlongs. Her previous efforts were on dirt at mostly sprint distances and were lackluster but showed promise. The last race, stretching out and over turf, was brilliant and it showed in the higher speed figure posted. That being the case, I’d say this filly is destined to shine at longer distances than this. Even though the change of surface is to her liking she will probably turn in a performance that shows her affinity for the grass but also that she wants more distance.

PP9: Sun In Action – (BAHRI x TROY(GB) x REVIEWER) – Bred and trained by sjmeola3 of Kentucky. Jockey Cardinal has a 12% win rate which could be part of the reason this filly is at 6/1. Ranked 50 and with her last win some weeks back in 2720, the pride of Kentucky is still a threat to the GR Simsters’ #1 filly. Two races back in a G3, this girl showed blazing speed and was a fast closing place finisher. She was the same 4 races back in another G3 where she finished 3rd. She can stalk the pace and come from behind. My sense is that if she’s on her toes on Saturday you’ll find her close to the favorite right into the stretch where they will battle it out down to the wire.

PP10: Nob Hill – (MIESQUE’S SON x WITH APPROVAL x THEATRICAL(IRE)) – Bred and trained by novanora of Vermont. Jockey Cadigan is well respected around the track in Kentucky. With a 14% win rate, he’s a trainer’s darling who boosts the ability of any horse he rides. This filly has the most turfy lines of any in this race. Ranked 11, she’s coming off a pair of stakes wins where she sat just off the pace and pulled off fiery finishes. In her previous tries at a mile, she’s not done as well as she has at just under that distance. However, that doesn’t mean she’s not a threat here. She does have a stakes win at a mile on her record. The handicappers like her chances somewhat against the favorite and have her at 9/1. Her biggest disadvantage will be coming from an outside post position. I’d say that if she’s on her game, you’ll see her there in the top 3 at the finish.

PP11: Tenacious V – (VINDICATION x LEAR FAN x BUCKPASSER) – Bred and trained by peeps4 of the GR Simsters. Jockey Givens is a star in Kentucky with a 24% win rate that is better than most of the jocks in the sim. He makes an already overwhelming favorite even more so. This number 1 ranked filly and million dollar earner is the clear favorite of the handicappers at 5/1. Her most recent win was 2 races back in the 1000 Guineas G1 where she came from 9th place to power her way to a quarter length victory. Her most recent race, however, was the complete opposite. She had a disappointing 8th place finish in the G1 Cremation Stakes. This could be an indication that the filly is ripe for a loss here. Look for her to do her usual and come from the back with a powerful stretch drive. If she’s not on form, the other girls will breeze past her. Otherwise, there will be no catching her.

PP12: Flee Flicker – (RED RANSOM x WOODMAN x END SWEEP) – Bred by isthatgood and trained by truly of Vermont. Jockey Yount only has a 4% win rate which puts his mount at even more of a disadvantage than she already is. This non ranked replacement filly is the most lightly raced in the field with only 2 races behind her. Fortunately, both races were wins. She hasn’t gone a mile yet but her breeding and her last race at 7.5 furlongs suggests it shouldn’t be a problem. She certainly showed in that last race that she has the speed to duel with the other fillies in this race. The fact that she was the clear front runner in both of her races to date is not an advantage here but she is experienced with an outside post position. The handicappers have her at 18/1 and it’s understandable that they would be sceptical when so untried a filly is up against the best in the sim. However, I think she’s a possible upsetter to this field. She has the wherewithal to show the more experienced girls that they are overrated and overraced. If there are surprises in this race, she could be the one to generate them.

PP13: Jump My Guest – (JUMP START x BE MY GUEST x HABITAT) – Bred by court1 and trained by Vermont’s marks1. Jockey Naber has only a 3% win rate. Hopefully, he’ll listen carefully to his trainer in order to help his filly’s chances. This filly is ranked 192 and has only a single win to her credit. She is stakes placed and has had some other monied finishes at the allowance level but her odds of 23/1 are probably solely due to her speeds. She doesn’t have the speed necessary to run with most of these girls. While she has shown improvement lately, half this field would have to run poorly to put her in the money. Look for her to run off the pace but burn out in the stretch against the power drives of the stonger fillies.

PP14: Tap It In – (TAPIT x DANZIG x LYCIUS) – Bred by unshaded99 and trained by dundey2 of Pastures. Jockey Lambert has a 2% win rate – a single win in 66 races. Why Dundey chose this jockey is a mystery since his horse isn’t that bad! Usually, I have a lot of respect for Dundey but the jock’s agent must have bamboozled him! Tap It In is ranked 167 and her last win is from 4 races back in an allowance. This filly is a strong turfer who has shown brilliant speed on occasion. Hopefully, this will be one of them. She favors coming up from mid-pack so as long as her jock keeps her well placed we should see her as part of the dueling stretch run. The handicappers must have had a good laugh at the jockey chosen before they gave this filly 17/1 odds.

PP15: Elfin Magic – (SKY MESA x CHARISMATIC x ALYDAR) – Bred and trained by hot2trot of Kentucky. Jockey Carrier has a 12% win rate and is fairly well respected in Kentucky. Hot2trot’s filly is ranked 246 and has recently not been running farther than 7.5 furlongs. But she’s been running very well at that distance so the extra half a furlong really shouldn’t be a problem for her. Her last 5 races were all stakes and she won 3 of them in a row handily. In her last race she was a distant 3rd but posted a 91 SP which says how hot the pace was! The handicappers must have discounted where she finished in that last race and looked only at her speed because they have her at 8/1 odds. Despite drawing the outside post position, this filly should run well. Her jock will probably keep her in the middle of the pack and pull out the stops in the stretch. She should definitely be a contender there in the final furlongs.

And there you have it – the field for the 3 year old filly turf mile for Smackdown II. Will Tenacious V win easily? Will Flee Flicker run easily with the more experienced girls and show what she’s made of? Will Tap It In overcome the Curse of the 2% Jockey? Will the flashy GR Simsters horses fall to the backwoods hard runners from Kentucky and Vermont? Kentucky’s Bulletwork, known for his hot temper and tailored overalls, looks mutinous if anyone suggests that Kentucky will not win this. The Simsters’ Given laughs with suave contempt when someone says that they could lose even though they have the number 1 turf filly. Only Pastures’ Mano is calm, with a wise expression on his face that gives away nothing. It’s a contemplative look, a Techranger kind of look. He knows. Despite the #1 turf filly in the sim, anything can happen in racing – and often does!