Are Horses More Fragile Today?
Barbaro has really thrust the fragile nature of the thoroughbred to the fore front of horse racing once again. The fragile nature of the breed has been discussed quite a bit in recent years so this is really not a new topic. The immediate reaction after Barbaro’s injury, things I read on message boards and conversations with friends on the subject at hand drove me to seek more information and develop an opinion or two on the subject.
It is easy to lay most of the blame off on the breeding side of the industry. The fact is the breeding side of the industry is only responding to the market. The market is influenced by the people who buy horses and more importantly what type of runner they are most interested in purchasing. The purchasers are not only racing fans but influenced by racing fans who want to see the next Secretariat.
The numbers really tell the tale. There has been a drastic decrease in the number of races horses start each year and also the number of times a runner starts in his or her career. Some of the decrease can be attributed to several different factors. Training methods and philosophies have really changed in the last thirty years. In the old days it was common to race a runner less than a week before a big race. In today’s environment the workout has replaced this type of race.
The boom of the commercial breeding side of the business drags horses off the track these days long before they would have normally gone to the breeding shed. The second a runner wins a big race his breeding stock rises to a point it no longer makes economic sense to continue racing him or her. Both of the mentioned factors however cannot account for the large decrease.
Let’s look at some interesting statistics. In 2005 natural disasters impacted the numbers a bit so we have to take that into account. I do not think we will ever again see years like in 1975 where average number of starts per runner was 10.23. Since 1992 the average starts per runner have decreased every year from 8.03 in 1992 all the way to 6.45 in 2005. The last five years are disturbing in that the number of starters has increased while the number of races for them to run in has decreased. More runners less races but the average field size is declining and we are seeing a decline in the average number of starts per runner.
Without out actual injury statistics it is hard to know one hundred percent that injury is the sole reason for the drastic decrease in average number of starts. It is however the most likely culprit. Why so many more injuries now versus ten or fifteen years ago?
It is not two year olds. Here is where I see things differently than most of the experts. Today two year old races only account for 7.6% of all races. The average number of starts has only shown a slight decrease from 4.1 in 1992 to 3.2 in 2005. The numbers of two year old starters has also decreased a bit despite a sharp increase in two year old purses during that same time. The nice thing here is it appears the young horses are not being over raced.
If American breeders are breeding with increased emphasis on early developing fast precocious two year olds the numbers do not seem to prove that out. Many runners could be experiencing injury problems before ever getting to the track and that could be a reason we see fewer two year old starters. On the other hand it seems a good thing that two year olds starts are not very high.
I think we are seeing a culmination of several factors from the breeding side of the business which has been heavily influenced by buyers and fans alike. Some of the more brilliant sires and runners possess a larger, thicker body type, meaning more muscle or mass on the same bone structure or frame. For example Storm Cat and Unbridled seem to fit into this category.
The larger body types are only part of the problem. If it were only the larger body type I do not think injuries would be as big an issue as they are today. You have to also take into account the many sires that have known conformation defects or more importantly produce offspring with conformation issues. I am talking about slight blemishes such as offset knees, over at the knee, or up right pasterns etc.
These things do not keep a runner off the track or take away from the speed of the horse. These things do however impact how the horse’s legs absorb and distribute the concussion caused when the horse runs. These blemishes adversely affect the durability of the horse over the course of his or her racing.
Let us look at a real life example. Ghostzapper was extremely fast but had to have his races spaced out. He was injured between his three and four year old season. Nine career races the most in any one year was four. He has a heavy body type with all that speed and his career ended in injury. He now stands for $200,000 a foal where he is very likely to see many unsound Mr. Prospector line mares. Heavy body type on less than perfect conformation that shows brilliant speed. Not a recipe for long careers but a great recipe to make a boat load of money.
Another factor is the dirt racing surface in the
As long as people continue to pay large sums of money for unsound horses, farms will continue to produce those type runners and it will only be a matter of time before the same breakdowns start to occur on Polytrack. I suspect the state of breeding is much the same in other areas of the world but because most of that racing is on the turf, a surface easier on the legs, they are not seeing the same drastic results as the
We have runners with larger body types running with conformation blemishes, using medications that in some cases mask major problems, and these runners are racing on dirt surfaces that are not kind to a horse’s legs. It is no wonder horses cannot stay on the race track these days.