Virtuoso, ‘Cyclone’, Or Young Turk: Which One Subscribes To The New Yorker?

In the Sim, we’re just lucky.  Our horses don’t break down, and with an injury, all we need to do is to move the train-for date back several weeks.  Real-world horses aren’t so lucky, so the Belmont Stakes is being contested (perhaps, given all the rain in the East this week, literally) under a dark cloud despite having a solid, evenly-matched field and an air of unpredictability, which usually is good for any story.  In that respect—unpredictability—the Belmont holds the same characteristic as this week’s Sim race in New York, the $1,000,000 New Yorker Stakes, at a mile-and-a-half.

It’s a tightly packed field of fourteen again in the New Yorker, but where the Bluegrass Derby and the Middle Jewel Stakes featured a morning-line where the oddsmakers threw a blanket over the field and turned it into a guessing game, the New Yorker arrives on the calendar with a clear-cut favorite.  New Found Cyclone won the Middle Jewel in impressive style, and he ran a good race in the Derby to be fourth, so with two strong Triple Crown races under his belt, he is justifiably favored at 5-1.  Thing is, though, the New Yorker traditionally has three separate storylines going for it. 

There’s the tangent with the horses who have contested both legs of the Triple Crown thus far.  Three of the fourteen entries—New Found Cyclone, the Middle Jewel winner and 4^th in the Derby; Virtuoso, the Derby victor who never fired when 8^th in the Middle Jewel; and Rhibus, who has disappointed a bit with a 9^th in the Derby and a 6^th last out in the Middle Jewel—meet that criteria, and it holds the air of a grudge match of sorts between the two classic winner and a third colt who looks to recapture the magic that brought him to this point.

Then there’s the tangent which includes those who have tried the trail, and left it without much success.  Of the assembled, only Remember Tampero tried to run with the big guns in the Derby, and he was a fair sixth in Kentucky while skipping out on Maryland.  This tangent has two subplots: can Remember Tampero benefit from the extra rest from a somewhat grueling Derby, and of those who ran in either leg, would they have benefited if they decided to try the New Yorker instead of sitting it out?  One of those questions can be answered this weekend, but the other will take months to sort out.

Lastly, there’s the tangent with the latecomers to the Triple Crown chase.  Ten horses skipped the early races in the series altogether, and they stand united in the quest for the brass ring, the ring that gives them a seat at the table, the table of power in the sophomore division!  While I will keep any further Lord Of The Rings allegories to an absolute zero, the new horses to this chase have an impressive collective résumé.  Euler won the Barbara Walters Special on Derby Day.  Lockitineddie was a game second in the Florida Derby two back and hasn’t raced since mid-April.  Hussled, #6 in the division, won a California Grade II at 11 furlongs on the day of Middle Jewel, and takes his best shot here.  And Globogym won the Chicago Derby on the off-week between the Derby and Middle Jewel.  They lead a solid, headstrong pack looking to leave their mark at the end of a long and arduous trail, racing for the $600,000 winner’s share of this million-dollar purse and a share of history.

Think I’m trivial?  You ain’t hardly seen trivia until you get some historical tidbits on the New Yorker.  To wit:

Previous winners of the New Yorker:

1999: Senior Dancer (14.90-1), 2:25 4/5, by 6

2000: Fit Groom (5.50-1), 2:31 3/5, by 4 ¾

2001: Dirty Mat (5.30-1), 2:30 4/5, by 1/4

2002: All Lit Up(AUS) (25.80-1), 2:31, by 1/4

2003: I Seek U (4.20-1), 2:31 3/5, by 3/4

2004: Tuff Enuff (3.90-1), 2:31 2/5, by 8

2005: Macho Niner (11.20-1), 2:31, by 1/2

• Tuff Enuff was the shortest price to win the New Yorker, and won by the largest margin, eight lengths. 
• All Lit Up(AUS) was the biggest upset winner of this race in 2002, at 25-1.
• The first New Yorker was the fastest, when Senior Dancer set a stakes record that may never get broken, of 2:25 4/5. 
• Both Dirty Mat and All Lit Up(AUS) had to sweat out a tight finish, both winning by the slimmest margin of a quarter-length. 
• Only two post-time favorites have ever won this race: Triple Crown winner I Seek U, and Tuff Enuff. 
• And only two horses, All Lit Up(AUS), and last year’s champ, Macho Niner, won the New Yorker without a start in either of the other Triple Crown races.  Odds are pretty decent it could happen again.  But will it?  Let’s investigate.

Here’s the field, from the rail out, of the New Yorker:

Bourbon St. Blues(IRE) [Galileo(IRE) x Blushing Groom(FR), trained by super10] draws the rail, and this colt, ranked #19 among sophomore marathoners, closed for second last out in a California Grade II at 11 furlongs.  But his closing kick didn’t have enough…um, hustle to catch Hussled.  His kick’s been good enough to win a listed stakes earlier this year, but he’s struggled a bit against graded foes, and the second in the Tommy Wayne Johnson Memorial last out looked alright, but may have exposed a distance limitation.  Granted, it was only his first shot at a longer distance, yet he did give way rather easily to Hussled.  His 95 fig was a career-best for him, but all but one horse in the field has a speed fig higher than that in their careers, and the one that doesn’t, Musicality, can at least match that 95.  He’s bred well and gets a strong jockey for his rail trip, but he’ll need to advance from his last a great deal for optimum results.

Privileged [Gone West x Danzig, trained by saver] is a well-bred colt who is the #4 sprinter in the division, but is only #38 as a marathon specialist.  He’s a three-time stakes winner in sprints, but has struggled an awful lot when he stretches out to distances a mile or longer.  Case in point: while this talented colt won a New Mexico sprint stakes to kick off his ’06 campaign, he hasn’t won since, with his best result being a second in the Grade II Sleepy Fan Stakes three back.  That was arguably his best start of the year, as he contested the early pace and had the lead into mid-stretch before giving way to Alastor late; the resulting 102 fig remains his career-high speed figure.  His last two starts have shown some improvement, while not straying too far from the lead in the Derby Trial two back, and finishing mildly when sixth in the Pea Shooters last out.  But the concern here is in handling a mile-and-a-half of territory against some of the best three-year-olds around; Gone West didn’t exactly set the world on fire when he was sixth in the ’87 Belmont behind Bet Twice.  He’s fast enough to possibly have a say in how fast they go here, and can stalk well enough to hang around for a while, but with some strong late kicks and no absence of potential speed, it’s going to be a challenge.

Tricky Nate [Tiznow-Oh Boy Linda, by Regal Classic, trained by kneeboot] is a late arrival on the 2006 scene.  Bred from a stakes-winning sprinting mare on both surfaces early this year, he’s come into his own so far.  While he’s still eligible for a second-level allowance condition, he’s twice stakes-placed thus far in his brief career; he was a late-charging second in the Fedirico three back, and after another third in a long listed stakes, he picked up the pieces for third late in the Tommy Wayne Johnson Memorial at 11 furlongs last time.  In the Fedirico and the Vengeful Storm, he closed from deep in the field and looked like he could handle longer distances; last out going 11 furlongs, though, he managed to pass tired horses while failing to make inroads on the lead.  The Fedirico came out a solid number, and Intergalactic, the winner, came from that to be second in the Middle Jewel next time out, but exactly what can be gleaned from the Tommy Wayne Johnson is uncertain.  He’s clearly talented enough to hang with some of the up-and-coming stars, but had a little trouble with the distance last out.  A contentious pace can’t hurt his chances, but this is a bigger step up in class and with only seven starts in his career to date, he’ll likely need to show more from way out of it.

Remember Tampero [Unbridled’s Song-Tampero, by Theatrical(IRE), trained by triska]?  He’s the only Bluegrass Derby contestant to skip the Preakness and return in this spot.  He’s a closer who held his ground well enough to be sixth in the Derby; while not really picking up any ground on the winner, he did have a four-length advantage on Half A World Away in seventh.  His late kick benefited a little more from the slop two back in a Grade III, but he was more consistent at 2 than he has been thus far at 3.  His figs haven’t broken 100 yet, but they’ve been pretty steady and should keep him with a decent shot in here.  A more lively pace should be beneficial, and he’s bred for handling this distance; considering all that and the extra couple weeks of rest, he should be in for a piece with a little luck.  It surely won’t hurt that his jock is the leading rider on the New York circuit (when the “circus” isn’t in town).

Virtuoso [Cryptoclearance-Fight Earn(IRE), by El Prado(IRE), trained by super7] comes back for a rematch with New Found Cyclone after a middling Middle Jewel, when he wound up eighth without the needed late response.  What happened?  It’s hard to say; in the replay, the pace didn’t seem too quick to handle, and the colt, who is a deep threat, was in his customary position at the rear of the pack, but when it came time to make his late run, he made up only some modest ground.  Was it the track, the jockey, or two separate but equally strong leaders (Tale Of Auror and So Slew Me) sharing pace duties making it hard to gain a foothold?  Or was New Found Cyclone just that good in victory?  The New Yorker should play more to his strength of closing strong late, with more ground to cover and less arduous pacesetters expected to take the field out early.  The pedigree is very solid for a marathon, as Cryptoclearance managed to get up for second in the ’87 Belmont behind runaway winner Bet Twice, and if he doesn’t opt to make a charge from somewhere near Ellis Island, his kick should get him into gear very quickly.  The question, for this colt as well as Rhibus and New Found Cyclone, is this: how much has the Triple Crown season worn them down, and what do they have left in the tank?  The projection here is that if there’s enough fuel left, he should prove that the Middle Jewel was an aberration.  Whether that equates to a win is subject to debate.  The key might be that F Gossett maintains the mount here, even after the trouble last out.

Euler [Roar-Cryptodud Dancer, by Cryptoclearance, trained by blinking] appeared to be on the trail of the Triple Crown with a win on Derby Day in the Barbara Walters Special, but the follow-up attempt in the Captain Hook two weeks ago defies explanation, as he always appeared disinterested when fourteenth and last.  The subsequent rider switch to P Haynes, one of the Sim’s winningest jocks this year, from J White should be a good start to get him back on the road to success, and his running style should work well here, as well.  In this regard, just like Virtuoso, if he’s not spotting the field a significant amount of territory, his late run should work at this level and distance.  His figs, particularly in both the Barbara Walters and his win in the Gotti Stakes three back, are very sharp among these colts and should keep him competitive.  His dam seemed to do her sharpest running sprinting, as she is a graded winner, and his sire, Roar, was a talented three-year-old who showed promise at middle distances; in the Sim, Roar is also a pretty decent grass sire, as his dam, Wild Applause, could win graded races on either surface.  Whether the pedigree can carry him the full 12 furlongs is questionable, but if his kick is back after getting the hook in the Captain Hook, he could be there into the stretch.  Either way, he should be a tough customer here.

Heaven’s Door [Mineshaft x Fappiano, trained by super26] marks the third of three official “super” entries in the field.  This colt raced in Kentucky on the first Saturday in May, but he opted for the Tubby Smith on the undercard that day, and while he did run well and showed off his own late run, he could only manage sixth among sprinters.  That aside, though, this colt could be a surprise here, as he has done his best running thus far at middle distances.  He started off 2006 with a win from behind going a mile-and-an-eighth in Nevada, and at 2 he was third in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile while closing from ten lengths off the lead.  His last-out speed figure was a 99, which sits him nicely among these, but his best numbers have come at a mile, maybe a touch longer, and even with a robust stretch run, his pedigree makes him a question mark.  His sire was solid at middle distances, but his dam-sire found himself more successful siring milers in general.  The DS did sire Cryptoclearance, though, so he had been capable of siring runners at this level and distance.  He’ll need a sustained late run in the final furlongs for his best efforts, but the middle distances appear to give him the best opportunity for success.

Lockitineddie [Smarty Jones x Nijinsky II, trained by boogie] should find himself up near the lead here, and his pedigree hints that he’ll be the one to try and collar late, as his speed should carry him pretty far.  Indeed, his past performances show him as having led at most points of call over his career, with three wire-to-wire scores in his seven starts, and two stakes wins, including the Grade III Giant Slayer, among those efforts.  He was a serious Derby threat until the Green Monkey Derby last out, where he wound up stalking instead of being the leader, and faded to sixth.  That was two months ago, hinting at a potentially big problem coming out of the race.  He’s been training for a return, and may have found a good spot to come back in, as the pressure he’s likely to receive early on should be relatively modest.  If he can shake loose from these, it could keep him in the hunt throughout.  OR, he could tire earlier than he has previously, and may need this race.  With a talented colt returning from a long vacation of sorts, it’s hard to predict.  His numbers are good, with the 101 in the Grade III win a standout, and provided he isn’t taxed too much by the pace, might be good enough for a share of the purse in his return.

Hussled [Hussonet x Unbridled, trained by funster] is dangerous here.  He’s only one of two colts here with winning experience at a distance nearly as long as this, winning last time out in the Grade II Tommy Wayne Johnson Memorial over 11 furlongs.  And he won with something left, drawing off by two lengths.  Indeed, his racing experience has shown that as a come-from-behind horse going a great distance, he could potentially run all day; throwing out the New York stakes two back in which he never exerted any energy, he has unleashed five furious rallies from far back in six ’06 starts, resulting in two wins and three seconds, all at increasing distances.  If there’s a horse in this field who looks like a mile-and-a-half should have little difficulty associated with it, class aside, at first glance, this colt looks like the one.  Expect him to play that role again, here.  Now, the bad news: when you look back at the bottom half of the final results from the Johnson, you’ll find…not a whole lot of immediate substance.  This field will be a far cry from that effort.  Additionally, while his figs sit pretty solidly among the assembled, he has yet to break the century mark in a speed figure.  And one cannot overlook the only other race over this surface two back, where he never fired and was fifth of six that day.  He had no excuses that day except for possibly not liking the track itself.  He certainly has a lot of potential, but this is a major test for class and he’ll need some help trying to out-kick some of the other stretch runners here; certainly, though, he’s one to consider if you’re pondering a trifecta wager.

New Found Cyclone [Newfoundland x Northern Dancer, trained by ydrbargain] is the “now” horse after his impressive Middle Jewel win, and he’s the clear-cut morning-line favorite, at 5-1.  He deserves it, to be sure, with four 100+ figs in a row, and the closing run in the Middle Jewel was strong enough to neutralize Virtuoso’s usual cavalry charge.  His usual tactic has been to hang pretty close to the middle of the pack, spotting the leaders some ground while not retreating to the back.  This is an ideal place for that approach, but it’s tricky, because there is a mile-and-a-half to cover, and the pace has played a role in this year’s Triple Crown.  The fractions here won’t be too lively, nor will it be a funeral procession, so his chances in this critical spot could depend on his early placement; the colt will need to be placed off the pace without disappearing more than nine or ten lengths from the front.  One of the most successful jocks in the Sim in 2006 gets the mount, A Rolling, and for those who suggest jockey selection, or lack thereof, has no role in Sim life, consider the fact that this colt has utilized the services of three different riders in each of the three races in the Crown.  This new rider change might hold a key to success.  Regardless, this is a worthy favorite who must be respected.

Burning Flag [Forty Niner x Blushing Groom(FR), trained by lenny3]: if I say that this colt has been on fire lately, you should feel free to hit me with a rolled-up copy of the Constitution.  Alas, he really has been on a tear in his brief career, hitting the board five times in six starts.  Although his last start disappointed, winding up eighth in the Chicago Derby following a wire job in the Texas Derby previously, his numbers placing him near the front of the class.  Breaking 100 twice in his career in this field makes him a contender, and it helps that he likes to head to the front most of the time.  Unlike Lockitineddie, though, he doesn’t need to be the controlling speed; he has stalked effectively versus allowance foes in his past.  And also unlike Lockitineddie, he may need to become that stalker, as his only try going nine panels versus graded opposition saw him fade quickly when he hung around too close to a swifter pace than he was used to.  His debits include the fact that he seemed to prefer a wet track in his Texas win, and this is his first attempt going beyond nine furlongs; though he has been able before to inch up on the lead as a stalker, he’ll need to seriously rate to save enough for the onslaught of closers here.  If he’s on the lead, the pace will likely be faster than expected; if he rates cleanly, he should improve his chances for a share of the purse.

Rhibus [Kingmambo-Pleasant Nijinsky, by Pleasant Colony, trained by gradetwo] has always had the backing and unbridled support of his trainer, but outside of the Florida Derby triumph, he’s not been able to match his juvenile abilities through the first half of ‘06.  His Wooden Indian run, or lack thereof, left a lot of folks scratching their heads and, after a middling ninth-place finish in the Derby, the buzz about the horse began to run in the opposite direction, something that his rather solid run in the Middle Jewel, a sixth, did little to alleviate.  He’s been sitting rather chilly in mid-pack in his recent starts, but without much momentum to generate a solid stretch run like he had when winning in Florida from about six lengths out.  D Givins keeps the mount from Maryland, and that should keep an air of stability around the colt.  You cannot disregard the horse on back class, but perhaps an overhaul of the colt’s running style might be in order, keeping him well out of things until late.  In a race this long, with a specific amount of pace pressure expected on, his late run should appreciate added ground, and may perhaps provide a little redemption.

Musicality [Sadler’s Wells x Easy Goer, trained by kevoman4] does Hussled one better: he’s actually won at today’s distance, something that can rarely be said of an American-based juvenile in advance of a mile-and-a-half “test of champions” (or, here, minimally, “test of champion computer-chips”).  Naturally, his win in Mexico two back at 12 furlongs wasn’t nearly as fast as they’re expected to go here, as the winning time of 2:34 3/5 would still see him approximately eighteen lengths off the winner of last year’s New Yorker, Macho Niner.  Still, it’s experience at the distance, and it was promptly followed up with a second in Athens at 11 furlongs against another small field.  Trouble there, too, as the fig of 86 still puts him at the rear of the field, but nevermind that; you can’t put too much faith in a previous win at the distance.  His best fig of 95 was earned on a turf-to-dirt angle, though, and he’s a few races removed from that one without significant advancement on his speed figures.  His sire’s good at throwing out distance horses, and his DS won the Belmont in one of the more dominant performances I’ve ever seen in person in 1989.  The pedigree’s there, but it is in advance of his development here, and despite the win’s at the distance, he’s facing a very stern class test among these top three-year-olds.

Globogym [Pleasantly Perfect x Crafty Prospector, trained by vsmdinc2] has the basics in place on his pedigree to get a mile-and-a-half.  His sire was a Breeders Cup Classic winner, his DDS is predominant classic distance sire Halo, and his DS gives him some speed as well.  Last out he was flying like he was on the Dan Ryan Expressway in the middle of the night, coming from eleven lengths out to draw off by more than two in the Chicago Derby.  The winning speed figure of 99 falls in line with what he’s been able to do this spring, his last four races earning figs of either 98 or 99.  He’s never been shorter than a mile, and has gotten better and more consistent as the races have stretched out.  All of this makes this colt a Top 15 distance horse in the division, and gives his connections considerable hope here.  Of all the deep closing threats, his might be the most sinister of the bunch, and he’ll surely be flying in the lane late in New York.  He’s passed the class test earlier, with placements in the Snow Chief and the Wooden Indian in the weeks leading up to that Chicago convention.  The outside post is always an issue, and despite coming up close, he’s still been shy of cracking 100, something he’ll almost certainly need to do here for the victory.  This one’s a colt who’s on the verge of breaking through; will this be the day?

The selections:

1. Virtuoso
2. Globogym
3. New Found Cyclone
4. Remember Tampero
5. Hussled
6. Lockitineddie
7. Rhibus
8. Euler
9. Heaven’s Door
10. Bourbon St. Blues(IRE)
11. Burning Flag
12. Tricky Nate
13. Musicality
14. Privileged 

Good luck to all the contestants, happy trails to you,and have a great (unofficial) summer vacation!