Cougar Smash(IRE) Memorial sees 6 fillies go 12 furlongs in Kentucky
It’s rare to see a field of sophomore fillies so evenly matched in talent challenge a stakes race. The Cougar Smash(IRE) Memorial will see just six fillies run, but these six fillies are so similar in depth of talent this should be an excellent race, although a very difficult one to handicap. The Memorial represents the first time any of these fillies have been run this far, so it’ll be a true test of talent and conditioning.
The betting favorite at 5/2 is Noia’s Negreira. She’s a nice Gone West filly out of a Theatrical mare. Negreira has 10 starts and two wins (both on turf) with the last in her first start of the year at 7 furlongs. She hasn’t been slacking off this year, however, as she has picked up a third (also on turf) as well as a string of seconds on dirt including one in a stake two starts back. Since the switch to dirt four starts ago, Negreira seems to have found her calling, and the speeds do support her entry here. The distance is a major question, however. She’s never seen more than a mile on dirt, and her front-running style has seen her falter in the stretch twice now. Her pedigree suggests she can get this distance, but without some experience at it I can’t see betting her to win. To place or show, however, is not out of the question.
The War Emblem filly War In Heaven, set at 3/1 on the morning line, runs for the aptly named waremblem8 stable. She lightly raced with just six starts, but two of those have ended in wins. Both of the wins came at 9.5 furlongs, which is the farthest this filly has run. Her off the pace style and handy win margins suggest more distance would be to her liking. The speeds haven’t been stellar (87 and 91 for those wins) but against this field that could well be enough. Definitely one to pay attention to as she matures.
This field features a mini-GR Simsters intra-league play, as the third betting choice, Ball Four(IRE) is also trained by a simster (lenny4). Ball Four is a lovely bay Balingarry filly with an excellent race record of 4 wins from 11 starts. She’s coming off a string of three straight wins in allowance company between 8 and 9 furlongs. Like War In Heaven, her speeds have not been stellar, but the 90 and 91 she put up in her last two starts are more than adequate to draw some support her way. She likes to lay a couple of lengths off the lead and should be considered dangerous by the rest of the field.
Bubble Dancer represents one of the more experiences fillies in the field with 15 starts under her girth. She’s got six wins to show for all that track-time, including 3 stakes wins. Those three, however, have all come at 7.5 furlongs. Does she have the stamina to handle 12? Pedigree says maybe; she’s by Cat Thief out of a Seeking The Gold mare. Race record says unlikely; she finished dead last by 17 at 8.5 albeit in a GII as a 2yo, lost by 7 in a listed stake in her first start of 2006 going a mile, and lost by over 7 going 9 in a listed stake 3 starts back. However, she’s closed fairly well a few times this year, and it’s possible she’s building up the base to go farther. Given the field has no marathoning standouts, this is a decent field to test Bubble’s routing aptitude. Good move by trainer catfish, although one that probably won’t end with his filly winning at 9/2 odds.
Joining in on the Simsters fun is Gladstone, trained out of the Simsters-member barn wistful2. The Birdstone filly is one of two 5/1 longshots. She’s the only filly with experience going more than 10 furlongs, but even with that it’s difficult to make a strong case for her to win. She has five wins from 12 starts all in small allowance fields. One advantage for this filly is a measure of versatility; she’s won both from the lead and just off of it. She hasn’t shown any inclination to take the lead in her last couple of starts, but with a distinct lack of a speedball here it wouldn’t be a shocker to see her lay just off Negreira’s flank through the first half before taking over. Like the other fillies she hasn’t yet put up significant speed figures. Like the other fillies, she may not need them to win here.
The final filly will break from the inside post. Urso’s Port Elizabeth has won one-third of her 12 starts. Her two tries at 9.5 suggests an ability to handle 12 furlongs, although again it’s a question of speed. Her lifetime high is 82, which is not encouraging. The Cape Town filly is coming off a poor effort in the GIII Timber Stakes, so at the least she’ll enjoy being entered against fillies similar in talent. Not likely to affect the final placings, but a possibility to earn a paycheck.