Hollywoood Knights Classic-G3

Ermington De Lago(AUS) is coming off a near miss in The BOOMER THE RANSOM Stakes-Stk where he lead the entire race up till the last 50 yards. I covered this horse a few weeks back in The ACK RICK Handicap-Stk and successfully plugged him as the winner. Sandwiched inbetween those races however is a very dismal showing and it appears that a rough racing schedule these last few months may be taking its toll. His last seven races have all been ran on two weeks rest inbetween and if the on-again off-again pattern continues he’s in for a poor showing today. He’ll try to press the pace along with Searching The Sky(IRE) but the pressure of the pace will probably be his undoing.

PP 6

5/1 ALASTOR

C Thompson ( 53 – 3 – 5 – 8 – 6% )

Trainer: marinia

3 Year Old Colt (SQUIRTLE SQUIRT x HENNESSY x MR. PROSPECTOR)

Dirt Classic Rank : 22

Our morning line favorite Alastor, burst on to the scene at the beginning of the year by winning four consecutive stake races in a row. Among these were two graded wins that was capped off with a career best 107 SR in the Sleepy Fan Stakes-G2. That race catapulted him into the hunt for the Bluegrass but a final prep race in the California Derby-G1 knocked him back down to size as he finished 4th and rated with a 95SR that seems to be his norm. There’s no doubt this this colt has the ability to outrun the field as he has shown in the past but is that one race a fluke or can we expect more to come? His last race was in the Bluegrass where he finished mid-pack 15 lengths back in a very crowded and competitive field. This colt may not be done maturing to his best ability as I would love to see many huge races from him in the future.

PP 7

11/1 AVATAR OF WOE

A Suborics ( 62 – 7 – 7 – 10 – 11% )

Trainer: mav176

3 Year Old Colt (POINT GIVEN x LEMON DROP KID x SUMMER SQUALL)

Dirt Classic Rank : 157

Winner of his last four races, Avator Of Woe hopes to keep that win streak intact. Trainer mav176 has moved slowly and methodically with this colt by placing him nicely and with plenty of rest inbetween. He comes in today on a full months rest after a successful victory in his first stakes attempt in The MTG Stakes-Stk. In each race he has improved and I see know reason why that won’t be the case here today. He seems very well suited for the distance and at 11/1 I’ll plug him as my longshot pick. Jockey A Suborics will look to save ground and move as they enter the clubhouse turn and I’m surprised that the track handicapper has played him so softly.

PP 8

9/1 UNCRUMBLING

E Bernstein ( 330 – 63 – 45 – 50 – 19% )

Trainer: proxy     

3 Year Old Colt (CRAFTY PROSPECTOR x STORM CAT x BELIEVE IT)

Dirt Classic Rank : 39

One time wonder or horse on the move? Uncrumbling, a Storm Cat grandson, ran the best race of his career three races back in The Easy Goer Memorial-G2 where he saved ground and moved through traffic under a strong whip to take the win. But that win was followed up by two dismal showings in graded company was never in contention in either race. Even with that graded victory it’s difficult to say if he has competitive spirit at this level. Today’s race may be the turning point as to whether we’ll see him in another graded race or not. I think this colt has a lot more to prove but it may take until his four year old season to prove what he’s made of.

PP 9

9/1 THE LAKE EFFECT

J Walsh ( 271 – 41 – 42 – 39 – 15% )

Trainer: grandslam     

3 Year Old Colt (SALT LAKE x TIMELESS MOMENT x BELIEVE IT)

Dirt Classic Rank : 61

Hoping to rebound from his last effort, The Lake Effect jumps into the mix with a more than decent chance to surprise. Up until that last race in the Chicago Derby-G1, he was riding high a came into that race with two consecutive non-graded wins in a row. However, he faded badly and finished dead last and comes back on only three weeks rest. Is the effect of 16 races already run starting to catch up to him so early in his career? What he has going for him though is a consistient running style and if you take that last race out of the picture he looks like a horse that can pressure the leaders as he’ll look to sit just off the pace and make a move on the second turn. I’m not quite confident enough to say that he can win it but he may just prove to be a trifecta spoiler. Try him on the backend of you ticket somewhere.

PP 10

7/1 DECATHLETE TED

W VonBraun ( 47 – 6 – 3 – 5 – 13% )

Trainer: tedstables     

3 Year Old Colt (STORM CAT x THEATRICAL(IRE) x CREME DELA CREME)

Dirt Classic Rank : 245

The lightly raced Decathlete Ted is a colt who seems to be growing nicely and early indications see to show a colt with a lot of potential. Having just broke his maiden three races back, his trainer tedstables has progressed him nicely as he is coming off his first stakes win in The STUPID SEATTLE Handicap-Stk where he ran a life time best 101SR. He diffently has the breeding to warrant such a move in class but faces as much larger crowd as his last race was won with only five horses entered. However, I can’t fault his entry here as he may have more to prove and jockey W VonBraun has done well with the limited rides he’s been given.

PP 11

18/1 PASS THE CANDY(ARG)

C Koch ( 83 – 5 – 3 – 8 – 6% )

Trainer: dublinlad

3 Year Old Colt (CANDY RIDE (ARG) x A.P. INDY x BUCKPASSER)

Dirt Classic Rank : 279

With a dramatic jump in class, Pass The Candy is tapped with the longest odds on the board. No stranger to stakes competition, this is his 7th attempt but first in a graded event. Of those six previous races, his best finish is 3rd in The KONG’S SOB Special-Stk where he benefited from a slow pace and a field that was less than half full. He has proven to be a strong competitor in the allowance ranks but without a win in so many non-graded tries it’s hard to justify his chances here today. It will be a noble try but perhaps a move back down to allowance company may be the way to go and in process capture those coveted BP’s.

PP 12

10/1 TRANSWARP CONDUIT(GB)

M Strahlman ( 79 – 9 – 7 – 7 – 11% )

Trainer: indigo2     

3 Year Old Colt (OPERA HOUSE(GB) x MISWAKI x GENEROUS(IRE))

Dirt Classic Rank : 135

Obviously a Star Trek fan, trainer indigo2 makes a surprising move today. After having wired the field in his last race in The COZZAURUS Challenge-Stk ran at 12 furlongs, Transwarp Conduit moves back down from the marathon distance but may find the competition a bit stiffer than before. Although he does have one other stake victory at 9.5 furlongs he either believes that his horse belong at this distance or the choices at longer distances may be few. I would really hope for the latter as he seemed very well suited running 12 furlongs. He’ll need all the warp speed he can handle but he may find the inertial dampeners a bit off line.

PP 13

8/1 MELEK HA CAVODE

M O’Hara ( 43 – 2 – 4 – 6 – 5% )

Trainer: genesis66

3 Year Old Colt (TOUCH GOLD x ROYAL DANZIG x FAST PLAY)

Dirt Classic Rank : 328

Heavly inbred Melek Ha Cavode starts from the outside post. With a double cross to both Seattle Slew and Buckpasser and a Triple cross to Northern Dancer, this colt could marry his own cousin and be his father’s uncle nephew. No wonder the Arkansas track has been begging for him to come and race. He started very late in his two year old season as he won in his first and only attempt in ’05 and managed a stakes win two races later in The DANCIN’ VISA Cap-Stk. Notably, that race was ran at 7.5 furlongs and his attempts at longer distance have shown what his breeding indicates. With such a strong speed breeding with the Northern Dancer crosses this colt may be more suited at sprints rather than classic distances. Although he was completed run over in his last attempt at the shorter distance I think it had more to do with being outclassed rather than the distance. I’d be surprised to find him on the board today.