The Oaks de English Draws a Distinguished Field
A near-full field of 13 will saddle up for the prestigious Grade I Oaks de English on Saturday to run a mile and a half on the storied Epsom Downs turf course in the co-featured race of the day, one of the most important races for fillies in the world. And it draws an impressive cast this year. The entries by post position:
PP 1 – Jaca (Mt. Livermore x Gone West x Roberto) ships back across the pond from Michigan for the palmisland barn after a heartbreaker of a loss by a nose in the Grade II Michigan Sophomore Turf Invitational at 9 furlongs. Her previous outing was another 2nd, this one by 3 1/2, in the Grade I Sydney Oaks, at the same distance as this race, 12 furlongs. Her speed figures, while solid, seem a bit light in this company, but as was just pointed out, she certainly stays close to the winners. When she’s on her game, she likes to stalk There is a pretty good likelihood of a brisk pace in this race, and if she’s forced to use too much effort to stay close to these, she could have trouble. Still, a lot to like here, and a lively play in exotics.
PP 2 – Malindi (A.P. Indy x Storm Cat x Forty Niner) is saddled by the escapade stable, and comes in with some eye-popping numbers: Like an 8-0-2 record in 13 career starts, including 7 wins in 8 lifetime tries on the grass, and 3 wins in 4 Graded stakes tries, and four races in a row with 90+ speed figs, including a 96 LTO in the Grade I 1000 Guineas, and a nice versatile style that lets her run equally well near the pace as from well off of it. Now for the questions. Well, really only one question, it seems: Will she like the distance? Her longest career race is 8 furlongs, and while her daddy had no trouble with distance in the Belmont, her granddaddy was a speed horse who throws almost twice as many sprinters as routers in the sim. But each of her tries at 8 furlongs had her gaining ground in big chunks down the stretch, so she just may be itching to run further. An all-or-nothing kind of bet in this race. If she likes a mile and a half, this gal could be a winner.
PP 3 – Peyragudes (Unbridled’s Song x El Prado(IRE) x Ack Ack), bred and trained by the limpid stable, in many ways presents the same pros and cons as her neighbor in post 2. Both have very good records, come in in good form, and are most adept at around a mile. Malindi has a very slight edge in career speed figs (98-96), and Peyragudes has gone a half furlong further (and won) in her career. Peyragudes edged Malindi at the 1000 Guineas by half a length, but Malindi made up more ground in the stretch. That leads to perhaps the only significant difference between these two: Running style. When she’s at her best, this girl is running on or near the lead. If there is going to be a speed duel up front (and it seems likely there will be), Peyragudes is in danger of getting used up too early. And of course the same caveat is in place here: IF she likes the mile and a half.
PP 4 – The Queen Bee (Cryptoclearance x St. Jovite x Drone) comes in from the inzy2 stable in excellent form, coming off of an 11 furlong win against the boys in wire-to-wire fashion. The question here, however, is class. That last win, however impressive, was in a conditioned allowance, and she’s picked an awfully tough place to run in her first ever stakes race of any kind. My guess is she’ll be a rabbit looking to run as fast as she can for as long as she can, but so far she hasn’t shown the speed figures to beat some of the ladies in this field. She may fry a contender or two along the way though, if they treat this race like a sprint.
PP 5 – Things Need Done (Shadeed x Swain(IRE) x Majestic Prince) is a 7/1 shot with some gaudy numbers of her own. Trainer sunrunner has this gal loaded for bear and ready to go. She’s coming in on a stretch of 5 wins in 6 races, and the one race she didn’t win, she placed in. She too will be wanting to run near the leaders, although she has shown a willingness to stalk just off the leaders when she needs to. The speed numbers are a bit up and down (she’s ranged from an 80 to a 97 in just her last 3 races), but she’s excellent at running just as fast as she needs to. Her longest career races are 11f up til now, but seeing as how she’s won both of them pretty handily, AND she has a stamina-and-then-some pedigree, the extra eighth of a mile shouldn’t hurt. The main thing for this gal, along with about half the field, will again be the pace. If she can rate, she’s got a great shot.
PP 6 – Wicked Wench(IRE) (Montjeu(IRE) x Blushing Groom x Nureyev) is a lightly raced filly (she didn’t race as a two year old), saddled by the tesio barn (20% wins), and comes in in red hot form, having handled every hurdle put in front of her with relative ease. She’s got 3 wins and 2 places in 5 lifetime starts, and she’s coming off of a spectacular win in the Grade I Adelaide Oaks, at this very distance, where she rode sixth for the first half of the race, moved up just off the shoulder of the leader at the third call, and roared past her and place-finisher Futuristic to win looking back, by 4 1/2. She’s certainly vulnerable to a bounce here, but we may be seeing a filly that hasn’t scratched her potential yet. The pace, if honest, would seem to set up just right for her, if she keeps running like she has and doesn’t show her inexperience. She certainly hasn’t yet.
PP 7 – Incredible Diva(IRE) (Galileo(IRE) x Maria’s Mon x In Reality) stays at the same track where she won LTO in the ungraded Monster Dot Com Challenge over this same course and distance. While she seems very solid in select ungraded stakes, her speed numbers to date don’t suggest anything close to this level of competition. Breeder/trainer tg brings this gal in with high hopes, a solid if not spectacular jock, a good versatile post, and a wing and a prayer. She is fairly inexperienced, and will definitely get better, but this might be too optimistic a place for that improvement. On the other hand, this is why the races are actually run and not just talked about.
PP 8 – Basic Instinct (Empire Maker x Deputy Minister x Mr. Prospector) also got to stay in his same stall as last time out, and in fact resembles Incredible Diva on several levels – both have won at the ungraded level, both have topped out (thus far) below 90 speed fig, both even have 14% winning jocks. But Basic Instinct has a bit more early upside showing here because she’s won her only stakes asking (albeit an ungraded one), it was her last time out, and her running style suits this field to a tee. It’s still going to be a massive jump to expect results going straight to a Grade I Classic from one stakes race, and I’m thinking that while this girl will be passing horses in the stretch, she’s still going to have to run the race of her life to hit the top half of this field. But another one who’s going to be heard from again.
PP 9 – Street Away(IRE) (Street Cry(IRE) x Kris S. x Bold Ruler) comes in off of a disappointing effort, a 6th in the aforementioned Grade II Michigan Sophomore Turf Invitational, where she ran an 88, although she did close to within 4 1/2 of the leader. She’s never gone past 9.5 furlongs, but several of her hard charges at the end suggest she’ll like the added ground. Another nice stalker/closer style here, but I’d be a bit worried about the speeds she’s shown, as compared to some of the gals in this race. Still, with a crafty veteran like theatrical training her (219+ wins), you know she’ll be as ready as she can be when the bell rings.
PP 10 – Futuristic (Vindication x Sadler’s Wells x Secretariat), bred and saddled by the shades, comes in with morning line odds of 16/1, which at first blush seems a bit high for the runner-up in the prestigious Grade I Adelaide Oaks, and it might be at that. But her numbers have topped out (so far) at 89, which may not get it done with this crowd, and game performer though she is, may have run over her head last time out. On the other hand, she may have simply shown she likes this kind of company, and, if that’s the case, then she certainly won’t be intimidated by this calibre of horse. Either way, she has a good versatile style, able to stalk or close from well off the pace, and that’s going to be a big advantage here. Still, all in all, for my money, I’d need to see another race like her last time out to prove that she can win in this company. She’s already proved she belongs in the race with them.
PP 11 – Kid Thunder (Thunder Gulch x Lemon Drop Kid x Dayjur) is the longest shot in the field, and trainer bountyhawk is no doubt carrying the stable colors here based on her last time out, a very nice win at 11 furlongs against the boys, as well as a solid 2nd three back, also at 11 furlongs. The problems there are both of those races were against allowance company (albeit open allowances), and the win was with a 77 speed figure. I don’t think this filly is ready to take on this massive kind of leap in class, considering that just 4 races ago, she qualified for (and finished 7th in) a CPU value race of 135. She’s definitely getting better, and we’ll hear more from this gal in the future, but barring a Disney-esque finish here, I don’t think that future is yet.
PP 12 – TSR’s Inner Child (Shagny x Slew The Coup x Deputy Regent) comes in as an intriguing play for the longshot touts in the crowd. This 21/1 shot, bred and trained by madeline, is a bargain-baby extraordinaire, having a 5-2-3 record in 13 lifetime starts, including a stunning win in the Grade I Sydney Oaks last time out, where she beat a field including the filly in the number 1 slot in this race, Jaca, did it in convincing fashion, where she was 3rd and a length behind the leader at the 3rd call, and flew past the two in front of her to win it by 3 1/2 lengths. And at almost 18/1 odds! She’s the number 2 ranked 3 yr old filly in the turf long division, and the 12 furlongs she ran was the first time she’s been over 9.5. Is she for real at this distance? The speed figure might need to improve to win this one, but with a stunner like last time, it’s entirely possible. Of course, so is a big bounce. But at that price, this gal may be worth a long look.
PP 13 – Stricken (Dynaformer x Rubiano x Storm Cat) is another in this field who has never gone this far, although the Dynaformer x Rubiano cross suggests that might not be a problem. She hasn’t shown drop-dead speed (although she established career highs for herself in her last two races), but she can close some, and that will help here. Still, the class and speed obstacles in her path would have me hesitate to put her in the exotics with these. This is another one who’s going to be a very good racer, maybe even a great one, but it looks like she has a bit of work to do before she gets there.
My Picks
1) Wicked Wench – comes just off a hot pace to win – not clear by much.
2) Malindi – Very game effort, can’t quite get up past the winner.
3) TSR’s Inner Child – Stretch effort passes horses, but not the top two.