Big Race Preview 2881

Race: 2881.3414 Derby de English – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track: Epsom
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf

Cortez (IRE) seeks to continue the trend of dominating three year old turf runners. He follows in the foot steps of Sunnybank Memorial and Horseshoe Bay. He has not fully separated himself speed figure wise from the rest of his competition but it is hard to over look his recent races. Already he is a two time G1 winner at this distance. He has won both races with ease not really being threatened. Unlike the two monsters before him he tends to run close to the pace. Expect him to keep close tabs on the front runners here and if no one wants it he will set the pace himself. Unfortunately for our favorite this field is loaded with speed.

Most likely to benefit from the abundance of speed is Good to be King. He has run behind the favorite in his last two races finishing second to him last time out. He normally does not sit too far off the pace however last time he was in a race with Lex Luthor he was about twelve lengths back at the mid way point. That is about the spot you might want to be this week and Good to be King looks to be in a good position to turn the tables on Cortez(IRE).

Lex Luther might be the speed of the speed and two races back finished second to Cortez (IRE). Speed is dangerous even when there is a bunch of other speed in the race. El Fredo (IRE) could be a runner that is capable of moving forward. He looked great winning a G2 race a couple of races back but when facing Cortez in the race after that he did not do all that well. He comes in off a solid second place finish to another contender in this race and could be a player in the end.

Skills in Magic has had a great start to his career. He is a G1 winner but his deep closing style could put him too far back to get into contention in this race. He tuned up with a listed stakes win over El Fredo (IRE) and maybe with a couple of races at this distance under his belt he will move forward. He will have plenty of pace to chase. Really top to bottom this is a very accomplished field. It would be no surprise seeing a long shot get the win here.

Race: 2881.0415 The New Yorker – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track: New York
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one half on the Dirt

The third leg of the sim Triple pits the Bluegrass Derby winner Virtuoso and Middle Jewel winner New Found Cyclone against each other. New Found Cyclone is the favorite in this race. With the exception of one race New Found Cyclone has been in outstanding form his whole career. He really seems to be hitting a peak with four straight 100+ speed figure performances in a row. It is hard to envision a scenario where is he not in the thick of things at the end of this race. You could maybe make a case his pedigree is not the sort that screams mile and a half stamina but until he falters do not forget him.

Virtuoso had won four in a row until finishing well up the track in the Middle Jewel last time out. For the first time this year he never closed any significant ground to get into contention. This distance seems right up his alley. He is a deep closer and could find himself in the same situation as the Middle Jewel however I think the added distance may help him in the long run.

Globogym is the best new comer to this field. He very impressively in the G1 Chicago Derby last time out. He too comes from well off the pace and seems to be getting better at it with each race. Looks as the though the distance will be no problem for him so if he can improve his speed figure just a bit he should be right there in the end.

Race: 2881.3615 Oaks de English – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Epsom
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf

This is a race so wide open it is hard to find a place to start. There are two co favorites here. Malindi seems the best suited of the favorites to handle the distance. She is by A.P. Indy however she has never been beyond a mile. She ran fourth last time out in the 1000 Guineas and ran from off the pace. She is a two time G3 winner at a mile has something to prove at this distance. Peyragudes is very much the same as Malindi. She has more races at a mile but has never been beyond a mile and a sixteenth. She likes the lead and also comes out of the 1000 Guineas where she finished third.

The top two seem very vulnerable having never been tested at longer distances. Wicked Wench (IRE) should be your race favorite. She is a G1 winner at this distance easily taking the Adelaide Oaks by four and a half lengths. Her speed figure at a mile and a half was only a couple of points less than the two favorites speed figures at a mile. She stalks and pounces and could be the best bet of the day at 8/1. Stricken is a runner that looks poised to run at this distance. She is by a millionaire mare that has produced another stakes winner besides Stricken. Stricken has steadily improved as the distances have gotten longer.

Things Need Done is a runner that has won at eleven furlongs in her last start with a pretty solid speed figure. She has won seven of ten turf starts and should be full of run in the stretch. Jaca is one of those runners you are not too sure of she can get the distance. She just missed last time out at a mile and an eighth in a G2 race and finished second before that at in the G1 Sydney Oaks at a mile and a half. Her speed figure was not good enough in the Oaks to think she will win here but you never know she has the class. 

Race: 2881.0414 Chestnut Stakes – Grade I – $500,000
Track: New York
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and three eighths on the Dirt

Whip Smart is the favorite in the third leg of the Triple Tiara. Rightfully so, after her rocket like stretch run in the Black Middle Flower where she scored a 102-speed figure. She sat just off the pace and blew by them in the stretch. She ran well in the Bluegrass Oaks before that running third and now she seems poised to assume the top three year old filly position. She has a beautiful pedigree for the distance and looks very much the favorite.

Casa Bonita finished ahead of Whip Smart in the Bluegrass Oaks. She sat out the Black Middle Flower and now comes here off the extra rest. She is fresh but that might not be enough. She comes up short quite a bit with five second place finishes in eleven starts to only three wins. Point to Ben is about the only other runner in this field that looks capable of threatening the top two. She lost for the first time last time out in a G3 race finishing second. She has been pretty good in her young career and her five lifetime starts lead you to believe she has room to improve and in a hurry.

Breeder’s Bowl Juvy Filly winner Pro Dubai makes her first start in nine weeks after getting injured in the G1 California Derby against the boys. She probably has no chance in hell coming off a nine week layoff racing at eleven furlongs but none the less she is worth watching. Another to keep an eye on is Apache Princess. Four wins in six starts including a G3 at this distance in her last start. Her speed figures are slower than the others but she has won so easy it is quite possible she can run with the top runners here.

Race: 2881.0413 NY Island Cap – Grade I – $500,000
Track: New York
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Turf

Only seven runners entered here but we should have quite a race on our hands. Sunnybank Memorial is here and is not the morning line favorite? New Storm is the favorite off back to back huge 110+ speed figure wins in G3 races. He has been very good recently at about this distance. If he keeps up the big speed figures he will be a very tough horse to beat.

Sunnybank Memorial is relegated to second favorite status. He cuts back in distance and for the first time since early in his three year old season. It is hard to judge where he stacks up against horses that run this distance consistently. On class alone he stacks up well and often times runners cutting back in distance such as he is doing will see a big increase in speed figure. He will need to on top of his game against these runners here. Hard to see him not part of the equation.

Aslan’s Moon (IRE) is a new comer to the scene. He is lightly race with just eleven starts and already has seven wins. He had a rough trip last time out in the G1 Keg of Guinness. Prior to that he fired back to back stakes wins including a G3 with very good speed figures. A Rub of Irish is a runner you always have to watch for. He is cutting back in distance and last time he was running this short he was heating up the speed figures fast enough to win this.

Race: 2881.0915 Bumblebee Classic – Grade I – $500,000
Track: New Jersey
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Distance: One mile on the Dirt

Berzerk Gold leads eight other ladies ready to run a Jersey Mile. She has only one win over a mile in twelve starts She runs the big speed figures and finishes second a lot but you hate to see the lack of wins at the distance in a favorite. Classic ran the kind of huge race that would win this two races back. She won the G3 Boquet o Daisies by almost three lengths posting a 111-speed figure. Problem for her is that she does not do that often.

Otto History probably wires this field of ladies. She is lightly raced and runs nice speed figures. Add to that she will be on the lead and is very game time and time again and I think she wins here. She is a G1 winner and has won graded stakes from a mile and a sixteenth to a mile and a quarter. Watch for her this runner she could be one of the top older fillies this year.