Captain Hook Stakes
Captain Hook
Grade II
A mile and one eighth
Fast Dirt
$200,000
All horses, 3 years old
Al Hirt (Dixieland Band X Kris S.) has been close in two previous stakes races, but today steps up into the Grade II land. Four races back it won an allowance race with a 99 speed rating which is a good rating, but not for this race.
John Butler (Hanging Road X Encosta De Lago) is an interesting bred horse for this race. Throw out the last two races and this horse has been competitive in a Grade III and Grade II race. It has a 98 speed four races back, but not certain if this horse has the necessary ability at this point in the 3YO season.
Cadet’s Project (Storm Cat X Mr. Prospector). If I bet just on breeding this is the horse. It’s a winner of five of its eight races earning just under $200K for its O/T. It has won its last four races with an improving speed rating in each race. The question is will this horse break into the needed triple digits to win Saturday.
Euler (Roar X Cryptoclearce) is well bred for Grade II races and has won of five of its seven races this year earning a little over $220K. The Grade III winner of the Barbara Walters Special has earn back to back wins at the stakes level. Its speed ratings are just about what is needed to win this race and is one of the co-favorites.
Woodyna (Woodman X Dynaformer) has won two of its eight races. It’s a stakes winner at 2YO and had nice showing in the Louisiana Derby finishing 3rd two races back. Its gonna need a better race this Saturday to win this one, but could end up in the money.
My Business (Sarava X Mining) is coming off and impressive victory in the Grade II Chief Snow Handicap earning its fourth victory in six starts. It’s never finished lower than second in any race. Its ability to charge up at the end has served it well and this horse is not receiving the respect from the odds makers (9-1).
Muranji (Mt. Livermore X Mr. Greeley) is an outstanding horse scoring almost every time at a distance of over a mile. The only problem is that its only big victory is in an allowance race. It should be ignored by the public except that last race in Florida (96) concerns a little. That ten point jump makes me think the O/T has found this horses secret to success.
Rainbow Phyl (Rainbow Quest X Danzig) has the perfect dam sire for Grade II Races. It’s only victories have been on the turf. Yet this horse has finished second, five straight times in stakes races with three of those being Grade II. Is Saturday the day the O/T lights the cigar of victory. It has improving speed numbers in each of its last three races, this is a tough horse that has to be reckoned with.
Cooperstown (Woodman X Saint Ballado). This three time winner has stakes victory three races back. It speed numbers say no, but being one of the few front runners in the race it could find itself all alone at the front. Can it hang on with all of these closers down the stretch?
Mioro (Smarty Jones X Sakhee) is a nicely bred horse using the newer sires that have proven successful in Grade II races. It’s yet to win a stakes race, but has the numbers to compete with many of these horses. It could sneak into the money, but I’m not sure it will finish first.
Samoth (Storm Cat X Silver Charm) has the right Sire for Grade II races and its DS has been successful at this level. It’s a Grade III winner last out and has won three of its last four. It has the speed rating to win this 1 1/8 race for certain. The concern is can it go extra 1/8 mile since its only race twice over a mile. It did win the Bluegrass Derby Trial Stakes (III) with energy left.
Genocide Junkies (Louis Quatorze X Valid Appeal) at first glance is a true long shot. It broke its maiden four races back and had run in owner restricted races in three other races. Yet, its third place finish in the Grade II Fedirico Stakes caught my eye. I’m not sure the speed rating will hold up in this race but it is on the upswing which is a dangerous sign for the other horses.
Flying Wood (Woodman X Storm Bird) is a nicely bred 3YO that has only raced four times winning two and finishing second in the other two. The one thing I like about this horse is that it will one of the few speedsters in the race, but I’m not certain it can hang in there with Cooperstown.
Parejo (Scenic X Housebuster) has won five of its seven races and is one of the co-favorites in this classic. It’s the winner of the Renewal Rates.com Grade III stakes race three back earning an impressive 101 rating. The problem I see is that since that race it has had declining speed ratings, which I believe is a bad sign. One thing I noticed about this horse is that it likes to sit right off the pace and take the win from the front runner. That could be the best strategy for this race if Cooperstown tires.
The Eighth running of the Captain Hook Stakes for 3YO at a 1 1/8 should be a dandy. The average speed rating for the winners is a 110, but I’m looking at a 105 to win this Saturday. The key to this race is how much pressure Cooperstown will face at the front of the pack. I don’t see a lot of speed in this race which could mean wire to wire victory, but can Cooperstown maintain that pace for a 1 1/8. I’m looking at the closers winning this race but I expect it be very close, no runaway victors in this one. My prediction is that the battle will be between Euler and My Business for the win and another battle between Rainbow Phyl and Cadet’s Project for third. It should be a nice payday at the betting window this Saturday with only one of the three co-favorites being in my top four choices.
Prediction: 6 – 4 – 8
Longshot: 3 (also my best bred choice for Grade II races)