Movieland Turf Cup
In the land of glitz and glamour, an all-star field of four-legged stars take center stage to answer that one all-important question as we roll camera – who deserves top billing on the marquee? Let’s meet our cast, from the rail out.
1 Dales Hollandia (IRE) (rosemont) – Deserving longshot totes subpar speed figures that wouldn’t scare minor stakes foes, let alone this group of monsters, and he’s made just two trips to the winner’s circle in the last year and a half. Each of those wins came in gate-to-wire fashion, but with all the speed lined up for this one I can’t envision any scenario in which he beats them to the front this week, even with the rail post. Well back of Jupiter’s Moons in a pair of Derbies last year and all in all, it seems he’s got a pretty steep mountain to climb this week.
2 Samaniego (IRE) (layeguada) – Undoubtedly quick out of the gate, but like the horse to his inside, it appears he needs the lead to bring his best to the table. Fact is, every single win of his life has been of the gate-to-wire variety and while he may well be fast enough to get the lead in this one’s early stages, there appear to be a handful of other horses that have designs on the front end and that seems sure to pose problems for this guy. A win today would make him a millionaire and he is G-1 placed, but that was over a year ago and got to believe he folds the tent up and calls it a day when he’s got to look some of these other horses in the eye.
3 Loss Of Control (zwango) – Longest shot on the board hasn’t won on the turf since clearing his allowance NW2L condition. And that was in February – of last year. Does go dirt-to-turf, if you like that angle, but he’s also going from disappointing efforts against allowance types to certified G-1 company and you can’t possibly like that angle. Second place would get him more than he’s earned in his twenty-eight race career, but he’s also tackling ten furlongs for the first time in a long time and doesn’t seem to pose a serious threat to our main contenders this week.
4 Sky Turn To Black (fab19) – Last was super and he’s in the exacta just as often as he isn’t, but graded stakes attempts have been poor, to say the least. Was shaping up to be a pretty good year for this Sky Mesa colt, but then came a train wreck performance in the G-3 Fort Lauderdale Cap. Can’t say it wasn’t a closing track that day either as he sat in the back of the pack with eventual winner Beyer Beware, and was more than to content to remain in the one’s rear view when the real running started. Seems to have bounced back from that disaster and with the abundance of speed on hand he should get a favorable pace to chase, should he feel up to it. Seems he’ll have every opportunity to prove he’s cut from the G-1 cloth this week.
5 Confederacy (IRE) (dawgpound) – Nothing but G-1’s on the menu so far this year for lightning-fast High Chapparal colt. Those efforts haven’t yielded any picture taking yet, but face it, he’s taken on some absolute beasts in those tries and certainly didn’t embarrass himself doing so. Looks like he’s due for a G-1 at some point this year, but style seems to be all run-and-gun and with speedsters to the left of him and speedsters to the right of him, that doesn’t look like the style to bring. The cut back in distance could make him a little stronger in the lane this week, but that also means he’s probably facing a faster pace and he might have to show he’s still capable of coming from off the pace to get the top prize this week.
6 Estrogen (tnilsson) – If you couldn’t guess it by the name, this is our only female in the field and really what hasn’t she done? Millionaire is a G-1 winner on both dirt and turf and if that’s not enough for you, her G-1 on the green came in this very race last year when she smoked the boys, leading every step of the way. So usher in a new era of feminine rights and girl power, right? Well, wait – there’s still the none-to-small matter of putting away the speedy challengers to her inside like Samaniego and Confederacy, then she’s got to worry about the stalkers like Balerion and Jupiter’s Moons, and don’t think for a minute that the closers like Preferred Power and Top Jimmy are going to just hand it to her on a silver platter. Top-notch mare, but she’s got a tall task this week.
7 Preferred Power (dshock) – Pulpit five-year old comes into this as the morning-line favorite, just as he did in his last start when he was a disappointing fourth from beginning to end and couldn’t catch a loose-on-the-lead Balerion. The veteran of the field had a very solid 2005, in which he snapped up a couple G-1’s and finished ahead of both Jupiter’s Moons and Top Jimmy when finishing second in the G-1 Man O’ War Stakes. Hasn’t been able to replicate that kind of tenacity thus far this year though with no better than a pair of thirds in his G-1 outings. Gets the pace to set up his late kick, but may be vulnerable off his even-running effort in the G-1 Black Dread Awakens last out.
8 Jupiter’s Moons (IRE) (coolk) – Trainer is dynamite with turf horses and this son of Galileo gets the call this week. Might have been the best three-year old turf horse in all the land last year had it not been for a certain nemisis which will remain unnamed in hopes of getting this one back on form. Beat a Hall-of-Fame crew just six months ago in Japan, but has taken a step backward since and has been off the board in his last two, which hasn’t happened since he was a wee two-year old still looking to break his maiden. You don’t win $3 million unless you have some talent and he does seem to have the tactical speed to stalk and finish in here, but needs to turn it around quick to meet what were surely high expectations for a bang up 2006.
9 Balerion (khalasar) – Speaking of bang up years, this Mineshaft colt is having a good one and just got his G-1 last out, in – here’s that phrase again, read it with me -– “gate-to-wire” fashion. Never worse than second so far this year and he’s a lot like Confederacy in that he appears to have a lot of upside, but he’s another who seems intent on the lead and it’s quickly beginning to appear that won’t be the place you want to be in order to win this. Missed by the narrowest of margins in G-3 opener to start the year, so would like to see him revert to that kind of stalking trip this week. Ultra-consistent horse looms large, but it remains to be seen whether he’s just another gas can on what’s rapidly looking to be a fiery pace or can settle behind the first flight and pounce on them late.
10 Top Jimmy (sdmf2) – Track’s top jock takes the call on this Peintre Celebre five-year old who would love to see the speed horses kill each other off on the front end. It’s all about pace for this deep closer who, like Preferred Power and Jupiter’s Moons, picked up his second G-1 in the Explosive Bet Stakes two back, then had his rally fall short in Hallelujah Turf Cup as the top two in that race ran one-two all the way around the track. Quite possible we see a better effort from him in this one and he does have a little bit more ground to work with this week. Probably going to be far, far back early and have a lot of ground to make up in the stretch, but that should make for an exciting stretch and I can’t knock those who like him – including myself.
11 Ballisodare (ninerdust) – Seeking the Gold colt does seem to be improving despite losing a heartbreaker last out at a mile and a half in G-3 company. Still, he had everything go his way that day and it’s possible he bounces like a superball off that career best speed figure. Think we’ve established no one will break away to the kind of clear lead he’s been getting this week and that probably leaves him a cut below our top contenders.