Big Race Preview 2860

Just two grade I races this week and it is two very big races. The Middle Jewel for colts and the Black Middle Flower for the fillies. Both of the Derby and Oaks winners return to the track today to continue their triple quests.

Race: 2860.0815 Middle Jewel Stakes – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track: Maryland
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and three sixteenths on the Dirt

When it has come to three year old graded stakes races so far this year it has been all about the closers. I do not think I have witnessed a time when nearly every major graded event has been won by horses coming from more than ten lengths off the pace. Virtuoso has been winning from way off the pace all spring long and he only got better in the Bluegrass Derby.

It is no secret Virtuoso will be well off the early pace. He has won the Derby and seems poised to continue to improve. He has won four in a row beating many of these horses already. Still all kinds of things can happen with a closer however you cannot ignore the trend and have to think Virtuoso stands a very good chance of capturing the Middle Jewel.

Ermington Pegasus ran a hell of a race in the Bluegrass Derby only to get caught at the wire by Virtuoso. Ermington Pegasust prepped for the Derby in a listed stakes and romped home by three lengths. I think that move was the key to getting Ermington Pegasus to performing well in the Bluegrass. He is another closer type although hits sits closer to the pace than Virtuoso.

Black Clown went to the lead in the Derby and stuck around for a third place finish. He could do the very same thing here with very little speed present among the contenders. So Slew Me is a horse the closers should fear. He was saddled with post position twenty in the Bluegrass and failed to get anything going from the far outside post. This time he is better positioned post wise and should get the stalking trip he likes which could put him in the winner’s circle.

A couple of other runners to watch for are Peacenik and New Found Cyclone. Peacnick’s Derby run was pretty good. He can close with the best of them and he is classy enough to be very dangerous. New Found Cyclone is consistent. He has a 100+ speed figure in his last three starts although he has not won his last two. His consistent performances have made him the favorite in this race.

Race:2860.0814 Black Middle Flower Stk – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Maryland
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

Just like the colts it was a steam rolling closer the won the Oaks. Armed With Money closed from fourteen lengths off the early pace to score a victory in the Oaks. She will be flying late here as well and that is why she is sort of a heavy favorite in this race. The second place finisher in the Oaks elected to skip the Black Middle Flower.

Whip Smart was third in the Oaks where she stalked and pounced. She could not hold off the closers though but held her ground well in the stretch. She should have a good trip in this race as well and should have another shot of holding off the fast closing favorite in the stretch. No Apagues La Luz threw a clunker in the Oaks. I think she was most affected by her post position number fifteen. In her only other off the board finish she also had a wide post in that race. Today she drew the five hole and I think she will be a factor in the outcome of this race.