Diligence Heads Market in Jamaica
The regular stakes race in
The race is named after Ty’s Launches (NZ), a twice stakes winning son of Zabeel / Relaunch,
The early market is:
5/2 – Diligence
3/1 – Churchill Dancer
9/2 – Forestforthetrees
6/1 – Fernando Storm, Peace Ally
7/1 – Bad Boy Rising
8/1 – Top Ten
17/1 – Roesch Hi
Looking through the field in betting order:
# 8 – Diligence – 5/2. A stakeswinning son of Posse, from the mare Forty Indy, a three time winning daughter of A.P. Indy / Forty Niner, he is raced by his breeder julie. He’s earned the top line in the betting here through a series of consistent performances in dirt sprints. As a two year old he won his maiden at his second start and rounded out the year with an allowance win. This year has produced an allowance and stakes win, and he lines up here on the back of a closing second at stakes level. Diligence rarely runs a bad race, and as he is showing a generally upwards curve in his speed ratings, it’s logical to expect yet another prominent effort here this week.
#1 – Churchill’s Dancer – 3/1. It surprises me a little that this louisville trained colt does not head or share the top line in the betting, given the form he has shown in his last two starts. He faces a massive drop in class from his last run, where he finished a close up fifth at Grade 2 level, beaten less than three lengths and registering a triple digit speed figure. Prior to that he won at stakes level in
#3 – Forestforthetrees – 9/2. A capable colt with six podium finishes (3 wins) from nine starts, his price may be a little on the generous side in response to his last start ninth of thirteen, the worst performance of his career, and the only time he has failed to deliver a check to connections. Bred by his owner / trainer ohjoanie, he’s a son of Forestry from Jokertariat (Touch Gold / Seattle Slew), a winner of 3 from 24, and a producer of two black type performers from as many runners. Foresforthetrees was a stakeswinner at two, and given his overall form, it may be wise to simply forget the last run
# 4 – Fernando Storm – 6/1. This colt is looking for a change of luck as he seeks to regain the form which saw him successful at stakes level, and twice placed in graded events during his two year old season. This year he’s been in the mix, racing exclusively in black type events, and registering a second, third and fourth from six runs. Superbly bred, Fernando’s Storm is by Storm Cat out of Zoom, a daughter of Seeking the Gold / Danehill who won eight from 43. He’s trained by fernando, one of the sim’s legendary trainers, so he lacks nothing in either breeding or opportunity. A return to anything like his two year old form will make him a genuine threat here.
# 7 – Peace Ally – 6/1. Sharing the fourth line of betting, Peace Ally is another colt who may be overpriced in the market due to a rare poor effort last time out. With only six starts under his belt, he’s won three of them, two at stakes level, and banked over $100,000. Scratchbred by owner / trainer ell2020 using Peace Rules / Alysheba / Salt Lake, Peace Ally won his maiden convincingly on debut, then before scoring black type wins at starts number three and five. Omen punters will like the fact that so far his career has been win / lose / win / lose / win / lose, pointing to a victory this week. There’s plenty of ‘real’ form to like also, as his trainer has given him plenty of time between his runs, so he should be at his peak, and he’ll be ridden by a top rider.
# 6 – Bad Boy Rising – 7/1. The up and comer of the field, Bad Boy Rising lines up for this stakes event following a solid grounding at allowance level. Tried once previously against black type opposition, he may have had excuses then, as the distance may have been of some concern at an early stage in his career. After experimenting with more ground, and an unsuccessful run on the grass, owner lrh returned him to dirt sprinting, and to winning form. Bad Boy Rising is a son of Black Minnaloushe from the lightly raced maiden broodmare Odmanhy (Woodman / Rahy). Although he’s only won at allowance level, his dirt sprint record of two wins and a second from three starts, puts him in with a solid chance here.
# 2 – Top Ten – 8/1. A most capable allowance colt, his record when elevated to stakes racing puts him under a question mark against this field. His three year old scoreboard at the lower level is two wins and two seconds from four, while at black type level, he’s finished tenth, fifth and twelfth. Bred by sending Sea of Buda, a four times stakes winning daughter of Sadler’s Wells / Seattle Slew to Ten Most Wanted, Top Ten lacks nothing in the way of bloodlines. Trainer grade1win has every reason to expect such blood to fire in high class racing, but I’ll be waiting for him to actually do so, before getting too excited about his prospects.
# 5 – Roesch Hi – 17/1. A prolific winner of eight from eleven, this colt faces a mammoth jump in class this weekend, but if he’s done anything in his career, he’s learnt how to win. Still eligible for 2k starter allowances, the oddsmakers have clearly been underwhelmed by his strike rate. Unlike most of his opponents here, he was not expensively bred, carrying the blood of Metfield / Tejano / Manshood. Although he showed plenty of winning form early, it was in the lowest level of racing, and as a result, he’s currently with his fifth trainer. sails2912 has done a top job so far with Roesch Hi, running him through his starter allowance time, winning six in a row before a last start third. He’s nothing left to prove at that lower level and there is only one way to find out if he can cut it with the big boys. With plenty of pace in this race, he may not find it easy to dictate the tactics, but if he gets left alone in front, four previous trainers may be regretting some earlier decisions, if they are not already.