Half-Sisters Lead the Way

A pair of Dixieland Band fillies lead a field of twelve in Saturday’s Grade III Timber Stakes in Pennsylvania.  Part Exchange and Muscle Shoals have combined for six wins in eight route tries on the dirt, and today they both try a graded stakes for the first time.

Only two of their foes have any recent graded experience.  In fact, none have ever placed in graded stakes before.

The Timber Stakes has attracted similar fields in recent years.  This year’s running has a larger field than in recent years, and it looks very competitive.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Remember Culloden (Bernstein x Sadler’s Well’s) is out of an expensively bred mare whose racing career was cut short after three races due to injury.  She’s had a couple allowance wins at slightly longer, including last time.  Trainer Fireballer (8%) tries an ambitious class jump today.  Her two stakes tries were slow, including when she finished well behind Mahe two back, and her times when she did win do not match up with past winners of this race.  11-1.

2. Hot Diamonds (Grand Slam x Sunday Silence) is a deep closer out of the Beefcake (8%) barn.  She has been a steady paycheck for her connections, in the money in 12 of her 16 races, including a second last time in the Manilla Pain Handicap.  Her last three wins have all come at today’s distance.  She looks poised to run her best, but there are questions if that will be good enough.  6-1.

3. Ran Away (Sadler’s Wells x Kingmambo) is the highest percentage horse in the Super18 (21%) stable with four wins in 11 starts.  In four stakes tries, she has a second and two fourths.  Never really got going last time in the Berry Jove Special and comes back from a seven week freshening.  With only three starts as a three year old, she is eligible to improve.  9-1.

4. After giving the boys all they could handle in a couple races, Dragon Dynasty (Dubai Destination x Summer Squall) returned to face fillies in an allowance last time.  She was a game second after getting caught in a speed duel, and showed an improved speed figure.  She has done nothing but get better since RaceDragon (11%) has moved her to routes.  She needs to take another step up to justify the class jump, but it’s not out of the question.  8-1.

5. Mahe (Tapit x Storm Cat) owns the highest speed figure in the field – a 99 earned last time winning the Double Platinum Special at today’s distance.  The Vineland (9%) trainee has finished worse than fifth only once: when she was thoroughly trounced in the Grade II Florida Oaks.  She should find this graded field substantially softer, though it is tougher than her last race.  One of three co-favorites and deservedly so.  5-1.

6. Allez France (Lac Ouimet x Compliance) draws in from the Also Eligible list, but she may have been happier staying there.  Trainer Freewill (9%) got a win out of her last time in a four filly track-restricted allowance.  She hopes to become sire’s first stakes winner, and an improvement of 15 speed figure points would give her a chance.  17-1.

7. Early in the year, Dreams (Dubai Destination x War Chant) came back from winning her allowance race much worse for the wear.  Kobras6 (11%) gave her a seven week freshening and entered her in the Well Heeled Stakes, where she pulled up.  Eight weeks later, she not only returns to the races, but comes back with a rise in class.  The barn obviously thinks what ailed her is behind her, and prior to her last race, she was in the money in all six of her routes and was showing steady progress.  Barn was wrong last time they thought she was ready, but at the price, it’s hard not to give them the benefit of the doubt and at least include her in exotic play.  26-1.

8. After following up her win in the Car Ginny Stakes with an even more impressive win pulling away from the May Emblem Special field last time, Part Exchange (Dixieland Band x Unbridled) is now three for three in routes for trainer Foxon5 (26%), and two for two in stakes.  Her 98 speed figure last time stands out and makes her the one to beat.  She likes to stalk and should find the pace set up the way she wants it.  5-1.

9. Killer Angel (War Chant x Secretariat) finished in the front half of the Grade III We Get Signal two races ago, and that might give her a bit of a class edge.  The Wistful0 (14%) trained stalker owns a win and a third in her other three stakes and has been in the money in five of seven routes.  That she hasn’t been able to break into the 90’s in her speed figures dampens one’s enthusiasm for her. 8-1.

10. Port Elizabeth (Cape Town x Grindstone) finished five lengths behind Killer Angel last time.  Her other stakes try was also slow.  Those two races sandwiched an allowance win, which gave hope to trainer Urso (12%).  Three of her four wins came early in here career as a sprinting two year old.  Veteran Jockey D. Hinnant is having the best year of his life, winning 19%. 16-1.

11. The PrivetDriv (11%) stable made a Wednesday morning entry of their promising filly Muscle Shoals (Dixieland Band x Mr. Prospector) into what looks like a fairly soft graded stakes field.  Shoals is four of six, running a speedy 96 in her second place in the Easy Kingdom Memorial and then winning the Saddle Tetecate last time.  The second place filly from the latter race flattered her with an impressive second in a graded stakes last week.  A ton of early speed and only one filly likely to challenge her early.  5-1.

12. The filly that figures to challenge Muscle Shoals is to her right: IDontBloodyKnow (King of Kings x Hennessy).  She’s been running hard early and fading late in varying degrees in her last five races. The Shane03 (12%) trainee has earned checks in 13 of her 16 starts and has the second most stakes points in the field, but the lowest earnings per start.  If Muscle Shoals fails to fire, this one may get an uncontested lead, and it would be no surprise to see her earn a check here.  Those who like to handicap by the entries’ names would surely have hit the Dog Nightmare Handicap exacta last time: Why Did You Stop over IDontBloodyKnow.  They may have even hit the trifecta when Seeking an Escort finished third.  12-1.

Morning line: 8-11-5-2

Timmn’s picks: 8-11-7-3