Virtuoso Performances Part of The Middle Jewel Plan?

“My shirt is ragged and my pants are tore

I ain’t found nothin’ I’m a-looking for

And I wanna go back to Baltimore.”

Sonny James, “Baltimore”, 1961

After Virtuoso turned in a virtuoso performance a fortnight ago in the Bluegrass Derby, there were only a handful of trainers still thinking that anyplace in Maryland was the place to be.  This explains why only eight of the twenty three-year-olds who started in the Derby have made tracks into Maryland for the second jewel in the Sim Triple Crown, the $1,000,000 Middle Jewel Stakes.  In a less convoluted fourteen-horse field, six of the assembled sophomores are new to the Triple Crown trail.  Fortunately for the race, the newcomers are hardly out of place; nevertheless, there has never been a horse which skipped the Derby but won the Middle Jewel Stakes.

Best finishes of horses that skipped the Bluegrass Derby yet ran in the Middle Jewel:

·          1999: U. Bull, 4^th

·          2000: Alydance Dance, 8^th

·          2001: Dirty Mat, 2^nd

·          2002: Sal’s A Thief, 5^th

·          2003: Gonzalo, 2^nd

·          2004: Suicide King Too, 2^nd

·          2005: Winning Moves(IRE), 3^rd

This isn’t stopping six trainers from checking out Virtuoso, and what’s not to check out, really?  He came from well off the pace to storm down the stretch and won the Bluegrass Derby a few strides from the wire, showing a lot of grit and heart.  Will a repeat performance get the job done a second time, or will Ermington Pegasus, a horse who had the lead until the final 70 yards two weeks ago, regroup and appreciate the shorter mile-and-three-sixteenths distance of this race?   And what about the newcomers, like Intergalactic, who won over this track four weeks ago against a solid bunch of three-year-olds?  And what of the also-rans from the Derby who had excuses, like New Found Cyclone, who got somewhat dragged into the vacuum when stuck behind the tough early Derby fractions of Black Clown (who also comes back again here)?

Middle Jewel Stakes winners:

·          1999: Gatling Prospector (5.10-1), 1:55

·          2000: Down The Jazz (6.70-1), 1:54 4/5

·          2001: Buda With The Slew (4.70-1), 1:54 4/5

·          2002: Unbridled Fury (4.10-1), 1:53 4/5 (stakes record)

·          2003: I Seek U (5.30-1), 1:54 2/5

·          2004: Tuff Enuff (6.20-1), 1:54 3/5

·          2005: Fly For Buda (6.50-1), 1:54 4/5

In the history of this race, the longest margin of victory to make up has been only six-and-a-half lengths in 2001 by Buda With The Slew.  In fact, no winner has ever been a deep closer, and two of the winners have gone wire-to-wire, most recently Triple Crown winner I Seek U in 2003.  Just some information to digest, as we check out the field for the Middle Jewel Stakes, one mile and three-sixteenths over a fast track in partly sunny Maryland.  What’s not to like about a race in a state whose theme song is set to the same tune as “O Christmas Tree”?

Rhibus [Kingmambo-Pleasant Nijinsky, by Pleasant Colony]

Trainer: gradetwo     Recently: 9^th, Bluegrass Derby

Classic division rank: 2

Story: This colt never got out of the starting gate in the Derby, breaking slowly and drifting back slowly to tenth by the stretch drive, and only passing one horse in the lane while losing ground to the winner.  This must have been a bitter disappointment to the connections of the second-ranked colt in the division, who showed a lot of heart in winning the Florida Derby in March but hasn’t been able to recapture the magic of the winter season this spring.  His trainer allows that “he’s the guy that got the hype going in, but he will need to put it together this weekend.  He gets a good rider and with a realistic pace he should fire.“  His numbers have seriously tailed off since the beginning of the season, with the 87 fig from the Derby being the absolute nadir.  His late run is at a disadvantage with history in this race, as deep threats haven’t been sure things in Middle Jewels past.  This race could be different than the troublesome Derby, as there should be more of an evenly contested pace early on, but he’ll need to be more alive earlier here to be viable late.  There’s a certain aura the gradetwo barn has about their colt: “His last two races have been disappointing, but I have a pretty good feeling about him going into this race.  I expect him to sit off the pace in the second flight and be one of the first to challenge the pacesetters.  He is sitting on a very big effort.”  The New Yorker in three weeks might be more to his liking.

Tale of Auror [Tale Of The Cat-El Principe, by Machiavellian]

Trainer: auror     Recently: 9^th, Bluegrass Derby Trial

Classic division rank: 29

Story: This colt isn’t new to the grind of the Triple Crown trail.  In fact, earlier this year he was a valid candidate for the classics, with his front-running style rewarding him with a third in the Fountain Of Ute and a third in the Green Monkey Derby.  He was part of the pace set-up in both spots, and should find the going a little easier applying some pressure to the pace here.  His trouble, though, has been in trying to carry his natural speed over a distance of ground successfully, which explains why, in both the Fountain Of Ute and the Green Monkey Derby, he faded in the stretch to end up third both times.  And make no mistake: being out front is his only interest.  When he tried to alter his approach to racing, as he did last out in the Bluegrass Derby Trial, he has shown zero interest.  In that one, while trying to come from behind, he never was engaged in the race, making a token move in the stretch to end up ninth.  And when left to his usual tactics, his speed figures usually trend higher, into the 90s.  He’s more likely to just seek out the early pace in this spot, considering the Derby was set up as a one-man show on the front end.  He’s capable of carrying the field pretty far on his own, and should supply enough pressure to loosen up any attempt at any other contender shaking loose.

Mine Go Easy [Mineshaft x Easy Goer]

Trainer: epcotlen5     Recently: 13^th, Barbara Walters Special

Classic division rank: 50

Story: Just like some contenders in the real Baltimore stakes this weekend, there are some trainers giving their horses a shot in a spot like this primarily because so many other top sophomores are skipping the Middle Jewel.  This isn’t to say this colt doesn’t belong here on his credentials; indeed, his third two back in the Texas Derby when he closed staunchly over a wet track earned him a more-than-respectable 98, which fits him quite well against these.  His problem, though, lies in the fact he did indeed race two weeks ago, but not in Kentucky.  Instead, a la the good old days when some lesser stakes for three-year-olds were held on the day of the Derby in order to give the late-developing horses a shot to join the Triple Crown trail already in progress, he tried other sophomore colts in Vermont in a Grade III on Derby day, to very little benefit.  He was a no-factor thirteenth that day in that mile race, which set him back in his development and gave him a speed fig that was an 84, noticeably lower than the races leading to that point.  He’s a closer who could have some benefit from a hotter pace in front of him, but on a wet track he appears more likely to run his race, and with the Middle Jewel being his fourth race in six weeks, he could be a little too worn down in this slot.

Intergalactic [Aptitude x Unbridled]

Trainer: eddie72     Recently: 1^st, Fedirico Stakes

Classic division rank: 31

Story: If nothing else, eddie72 is excited.  “I’ve never won a G1 in my career.  This is all very new and undiscovered territory for me.  I feel like we’ve only scratched the surface of his talent.”  This late-developing colt improved his record to 4-for-6 with a come-from-behind win in the Fedirico over this surface last out.  I believe the surprisingly perceptive scribe covering the race called him a potential “summer sophomore star”, and he didn’t disappoint, using a strong late run to come from almost eight lengths off the lead to draw off by almost two.  What’s been most impressive is the way he’s been able to handle steep rises in class with such dexterity, moving from maiden company to the listed stakes level, and then from a listed race to a graded win, all the while coming from behind.  The trainer is solidly in his charge’s corner, saying, “He’s somewhat of a wild card since he’s had so few races….We don’t know just how good he might be yet.”  The expected scenario comes up to his liking, with a contentious pace ahead of him and some strong-willed closers alongside him.  The Fedirico field was no bunch of slackers either, with every horse being a stakes-placed horse at a minimum, and only one horse higher than 16-1 (and said horse actually wound up third there at 40-1).  With an extra two weeks to prepare for this, and a diminished number of Derby starters being wheeled back, he lands in the role of Fashionable Now Horse, the newcomer who looks good on paper who benefits from skipping the Derby.  Despite a career-best 98 last out, this is a major class test among some highly accomplished horses.  He figures in the mix here, but may only have a shot at the exotics while gearing up for a late charge into the summertime.  And his trainer appears resigned to that fact: “I firmly believe that he is as classy as any of the other horses in this field, he just lacks experience.”

Peacenik [Peace Rules-Big N Tall, by Broad Brush]

Trainer: oaklawn66     Recently: 5^th, Bluegrass Derby

Classic division rank: 4

Story: As the fifth choice in the wagering, despite a high ranking, this colt got off to a belated start in the Derby last time, and the lack of a contested pace there muted a potentially serious late charge.  Spotting the early leader ten lengths, he wasn’t far back enough to make as much headway as eventual winner Virtuoso did, closing to within four lengths of the front before fading back to fifth, only beaten five-and-a-quarter lengths.  While this must have been a disappointment following such a strong win in the Wooden Indian two back, the effort merited a 99 fig, which comes up a very good number.  It won’t be the best last-out figure here, with the four horses that finished ahead of him here, but it’s consistent with his early silly-season performances (the aforementioned Wooden Indian romp, and the win in the Equinics) that got him strong numbers in the mid-to-high-90s.  He’s only been out of a paycheck spot once in fourteen starts, and has been a rock-solid closer throughout his career, with a middling Derby race in which everyone was chasing a loose pace-setter.  A repeat of that Derby race isn’t that likely here, and this development should be to the benefit of a strong closing dash.  While that bucks a historical trend, it works to the advantage of this horse, who is due to gain an advantage by having a realistic scenario to follow.  He’s a live wire here.

Clan Of The Cat [Mountain Cat-Oak Clan, by Danzig]

Trainer: slowracers     Recently: 10^th Bluegrass Derby

Classic division rank: 15

Story: This colt hasn’t had a win since Christmas Eve, but that doesn’t mean he’s been unaccomplished.  At 3 thus far, he’s been third in the Equinics and second in the Green Monkey Derby, all the while developing a solid late run.  The kick has been hit-or-miss, and it missed in the Louisiana Derby back in March as well as his 2006 debut, a fourth in California.  It hasn’t helped, either, that the only try he had at a distance beyond a mile-and-a-sixteenth was in the Derby, where he just sank into the middle of the pack, and stayed there, beaten seventeen lengths in tenth.  Could he just be more the miler type, is the question.  His pedigree does hint that he has a limit, and while he does indeed charge from well off the pace, it didn’t translate to the Derby, and has struggled to finish the job so far at 3.  Of course, the Derby may have been an aberration for more than one horse and for more than one reason, and so, with a compact field, a shorter distance and a different reliance on pace, most everyone should get another shot at proving themselves.  His kick, though, as solid as it is, may not be the best of this bunch.

Ace King Suited [Golden Missile-Danzig To The Song, by Unbridled’s Song]

Trainer: burn2shine     Recently: 3^rd, California Derby

Classic division rank: 52

Story: Having an ace-king suited in Texas hold-‘em poker is usually a good sign, and provides you with solid (if not high-percentage) odds for a winning hand.  In this case, it holds some intriguing possibilities.  First, there’s the angle of the long layoff—this late-blooming colt hasn’t been out since April 8, when he gave way to wind up fourth in the Grade I California Derby.  That’s a six-week break, which is by far the longest rest of the assembled.  Such a break can’t do a lot of harm following a rather strenuous Derby run for many of that field that opted to try again here.  Then, there’s his own development, which has been steady; a stakes winner at 2, with figs that debuted in the 80s and rose from there, he broke 90 in his last two-year-old start, and has improved upon that at 3, if you dispose of his ’06 debut, where he couldn’t shake off the rust and was fifth with an 88, with numbers bumping up against 100 in each subsequent start since then.  He’s a stalking type, which should situate him pretty close to the front end here, and he will try to take advantage of his expected placement using a fresh set of legs, which in theory stands a good chance of working.  But more recently, while the stalking trip worked two back in a listed stakes, he couldn’t convert it into a late maneuver in the California Derby, which hints he might have a ways to travel upwards in class.  Can that be a key here?  We’ll see.

Black Clown [Afleet x Gone West]

Trainer: semi3     Recently: 3^rd, Bluegrass Derby

Classic division rank: 8

Story: This colt helped to break some hearts in the Bluegrass Derby, when, on a pair of fresh legs coming off a six-week respite, he held off Toxicsuperfreakout early on, and led the Derby field by himself into the stretch (for about a mile-and-a-sixteenth) before wilting on the uncontested pressure and fading to third, only beaten two-and-a-half lengths.  As a juvenile he was a precocious sort, preferring to stay close to the lead and stalk, while waiting to take over late.  That game plan earned him a trio of graded placements at 2, including a second in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile, as well as a Grade II win.  He’s been more ragged at 3, taking until the Derby to find his proper footing and utilizing a number of things, including a 6-week layoff, a grass prep in February and his usual resources of tactical speed and placement, to have the race of his year, even in a losing effort.  The Middle Jewel field, though, isn’t going to be nearly as easy to take by surprise, with the presence of other colts which prefer to keep pace with the leaders affecting the game plan.  The question is, now, can he become more of a tactician instead of a speedy sort, rating instead of taking charge and hoping to go as far as he can with as much haste?  A mile-and-three-sixteenths, based on his pedigree, might not be in his long-term range, but if his tactical turn of foot could almost have carried a big field a distance of ground, with enough expertise a strong rating job could improve his chances.

Crafty Cyclone [Crafty Prospector x Gone West]

Trainer: ydracing     Recently: 2^nd, Barbara Walters Special

Classic division rank: 27

Story: Let’s let Yellow Dog himself give you the lowdown on the other half of his uncoupled entry: “Crafty is not quite as well performed as his stablemate and races completely differently, being a deep closer that always seems to be not quite making it at a graded level with a number of minor placings.”  The first of the Yellow Dog Empire’s uncoupled entries in this field was a late-charging second on Derby Day in Vermont, where he made up a ton of ground, but could only wind up second after the mile.  He’s a horse who has thrived beyond a mile, becoming a stakes winner at 3 going nine panels, and his late running style certainly fits the expectation of what the pace should be like.  The 98 earned last out does make him a viable candidate here, but the worry here might be consistency, with the win in Finland and the second in Vermont being surrounded by four other starts where he was fifth twice, seventh, and twelfth.  The last time he put two strong back-to-back races together was at the end of his juvenile campaign, and though they were impressive (a Grade II-placing followed by a restricted allowance event), and his figures then and now ranging from the high-80s to the high-90s, might his distance limitations also be somewhere around a mile and change?  There are stronger closers here, but if he’s rated enough, he might be able to put together a serious rally late.  The Yellow Dog Racing honcho seems intrigued with the idea of literally playing the spoiler.  “Hopefully he can just get in Virtuoso‘s and Ermington Pegasus’s way and allow (New Found Cyclone) to pinch a winning break in the stretch,” he says with a wink and a smile.

So Slew Me [Belong To More-No More Storms, by Seattle Slew]

Trainer: babyfarms     Recently: 16^th, Bluegrass Derby

Classic division rank: 7

Story: Big things were expected from this colt in the Derby, so much so that he was third choice, at 12-1.  But something happened on the first turn, and by the time they passed the halfway mark, he fell precipitously from seventh to fourteenth, and was continuing to lose ground en route to a sixteenth-place finish, twenty-five lengths behind the winner.  No one could really pinpoint just what happened in that unwieldy field, but whatever potential his spring campaign hinted at was painted over in the span of two minutes.  His stalking trip in the California Derby helped him roll to an easy win and a career-best fig, but he bounced from that effort in Kentucky, and in regrouping, the connections will need to reconfigure the best tactic which could get him off the mat.  They need only go back three starts, to the second in the Louisiana Derby, where he unleashed a strong rally to come from seven lengths down to be beaten only about two lengths.  He may need to hang further back than he’s normally been, but that might be the best course of action in a field which should feature more speed that was seen just two weeks ago.  The jockey switch is bound to be a help as well.

New Found Cyclone [Newfoundland x Northern Dancer]

Trainer: ydrbargain     Recently: 4^th, Bluegrass Derby

Classic division rank: 18

Story: He flew under the radar of the bettors, going off as the sixth choice, but he ran impressively enough in the Derby to be listed as a narrow morning-line favorite in the Middle Jewel.  And his race also went under the radar, staying close, but not close enough (or, depending on your worldview, too close for comfort; trainer Yellow Dog was “quite pleased with his Derby run although his jockey did have him positioned a little closer to the pace than instructed”) to the pace set by Black Clown, and he was one of the few horses trying to make inroads in the stretch on the top 3.  As a result, he was never more than three and three-quarter lengths from the lead at any point, and managed to close to within a length of the lead in the stretch before he was forced to give way late.  His early-season experimenting with grass wasn’t just an attempt to blow smoke; it’s paid dividends with higher speed figures (his last three starts were all over 100) and four successive Top 5 finishes, giving this horse a continued consistency.  Here, he might not have to pay as close attention to whatever the pace is doing, as there’ll be others around to share the burden of keeping the pace honest enough.  The distance might be in that rare position of not being enough ground for him at this level, and he’s another one to watch should he make out of Maryland healthy and fit enough to give the New Yorker a go in three weeks.  And Yellow Dog racing as a whole is enthusiastic following the Derby.  “Fourth beaten less than three lengths was certainly no disgrace. The only disappointment was he didn’t quite run down the early leader and grab third.” Regardless of what may have been stated about him in the buildup to the Derby, his race there hints that this spot could finally mark his emergence as a valid divisional foe.

Virtuoso [Cryptoclearance-Fight Earn(IRE), by El Prado(IRE)]

Trainer: super7     Recently: 1^st, Bluegrass Derby

Classic division rank: 1

Story:  Trainer whirlwind, speaking on behalf of the super stables syndicate, confesses just how unexpected his sudden fame has been: “He’s really blossomed as a 3 year old and surprised the hell out of us.  His sire, Cryptoclearance, is rarely used in the Sim and the mare I used” (whirlwind bred both Virtuoso and Rhibus) “was fairly undistinguished.  But after his in Mexico, I told my partners that he was going to win the Bluegrass and that he did with a stunning closing effort and a perfect ride from Gossett, who returns to ride this week.”  It was quite the transformation: syndicate horse, modestly bred (for the syndicate) pairing an older sire with a decently-bred G-level mare, an also-ran at 2 for much of the season, blooms at 3 to win his first four races in a row, including a stellar seventeenth-to-first stretch kick to win the Derby in the final strides.  One was always very much aware that he possessed a fine come-from-Middle Earth kick, seeing as how in each of his starts since last spring he’s featured in his points-of-call a gap of nine lengths of higher to make up in the last half-mile or so of each start.  He’s played that deep-threat angle to perfection among the three-year-olds in the Sim this year, but there are some questions to be answered about his efforts.  Chief among these is whether the lack of a consistent and steady pace pressure hurt others more than it helped him.  It’s not a knock on the colt, because, between his Corkscrew win two back, his steadily improving speed figures and his three-time graded-placed juvenile season, he’s always had considerable abilities.  Instead, it’s an open question of whether the pace scenario helped him or forced others to change their strategies.  Here, there’ll be more pressure, a few more stalkers, and, even as distance isn’t supposed to matter, it’s a shorter race.  Considering how he needed to stick a head in front in the final yards to capture the Derby, the extra sixteenth could make or break a repeat flight late.  And whirlwind states unequivocally, “I think he has benefited from not being raced hard and having six weeks off before the Derby.  He is an honest horse and will run his race, a long sustained charge at the leaders from way back starting on the far turn and if he gets there, he gets there but he will leave it all on the track.”  His numbers show continued improvement, breaking the century mark for the first time, and there’s seemingly more to come.  He’s proven himself worthy of #1.  It’s now a matter of staying there, and if the morning-line is correct, as part of a four-way tie for second betting choice, there’s just a bit more respect to earn.  The super7 silks have a bull’s eye painted on them here. 

Ermington Pegasus [Sky Mesa-Secret Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus]

Trainer: pigeon3     Recently: 2^nd, Bluegrass Derby

Classic division rank: 6

Story: If anyone had a right to sing like Sonny James about bringing their damaged spirit back to Baltimore, it’s this colt, who had a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it moment while leading in the final furlong of the Bluegrass Derby, where he couldn’t withstand the furious rally of Virtuoso and gamely settled for a solid, if heartbreaking, second, beaten a very long neck.  In other years, he may have been a clear winner, but between the pace and the late rally of a well-rested horse on a tear, he just didn’t have enough to withstand the last 100 yards of that kick that nailed him.  But what didn’t help him in the Derby could help him out in Maryland.  There should not be a game of follow-the-leader here, with many of this field liking to hang on or near the lead.  The race is a sixteenth shorter, which should aid his own definitive late run.  And history is on his side, as no deep threat has closed from more than seven lengths or so from the lead to win the second leg of the Sim Triple Crown.  His Equinics win to start the year shows us that no distance is too much to overcome, and even his outside post should hinder a rating horse as this one is.  Keeping the same jock from the Derby should also be of substantial aid to him, and the 104 fig from the Derby validates the eye-popping 103 he earned in February in the Equinics.  With that North Florida Stakes prep two back, maybe it wasn’t the best strategy to come into the Derby off a questionably slighter prep race, but with a contentious Derby under his belt, he’s certain to improve and maintain strong focus.  He’s alive, in the 13 hole.

Azroc Red N Yellow [Green Desert x Diesis(GB)]

Trainer: cjt     Recently: 5^th, Federico Stakes

Classic division rank: 59

Story: Drawing the outside post is an outsider with an outside chance.  This colt is an unheralded deep threat whose last start was a game, belated 5th over this course in the Federico four weeks back.  He was also a belated third in the Corkscrew Stakes; though his gains were modest, they did allow his speed figures to move into the low-to-mid-90s, and show potential for long-term growth.  His ’06 debut on the grass, in an Arizona Grade I, may not have been designed to act as a launch pad for dirt success, but it’s pretty clear his connections are hoping for the same long-term boost some of the others in this field (New Found Cyclone and Black Clown come to mind).  He’ll be one of those who are poised to make a closing move late in the game, but from the outside post and given his lack of complete seasoning at this level, his impact on this field might be limited to a potential exotics play if you’re inclined to wager.

The selections for the Middle Jewel Stakes:

1.        Ermington Pegasus

2.        New Found Cyclone

3.        Virtuoso

4.        Peacenik

5.        Black Clown

6.        Intergalactic

7.        Ace King Suited

8.        So Slew Me

9.        Crafty Cyclone

10.     Rhibus

11.     Clan Of The Cat

12.     Mine Go Easy

13.     Tale Of Auror

14.     Azroc Red N Yellow

Good luck to all the entrants, and happy racing!