Real Danger Handicap Grade II
1. 86920 BIRDS OF PARADISE dixiedotco 9/5. A 5yo mare by Seeking the Gold, has won 14 of 33 starts and is the 5th rank in this division; also was made the 9/5 favorite in this race. She has raced at 6f four times with three 2nd’s and a 7th. Going 6 races back into last year she finished 2nd in a G3 with her second highest career SP of a 109. Then most recently in her last start in a G2 she finished 2nd again, this time with a 105 SP. She looks the best in this field but her running style is the same as 5 others in here. So the pace of the race might determine the winner, but she’d be my pick.
2. 4531 ROWDY ONE tycodog3 3/1. A 6yo mare by Forty Niner. She’s tried this distance 7 times in 39 races. In her first 4 starts at 6f she had 2 wins and 2 2nd’s that came in allowance and stakes races. Most recently however she has a 6th in a G2 from last year and 5th in a stakes this year. She didn’t lose the races badly, but only 2-3 lengths in both but her SP’s aren’t that high in the races to think she’ll be able to win here. She’s run a couple good races then some bad ones afterwards and her races show if she doesn’t have the lead or in 2nd place, she’ll do bad.
3. 95653 SLOTH biznes 8/1. A 4yo filly by Pulpit. Ion 20 career races she has only raced at 6f once which came last year in a stakes finishing in 10th; one of her worst races of her career. She had 1 real good race this year in which she finished 3rd in a 8f G1 Equinics race. She does have a better record sprinting than routing but to me her best races are at 7f or 8f, It doesn’t look to likely she’ll win but she does have a front/midpack running style and with the many frontrunners in here maybe she can come closing and collect a check.
4. 88340 ADELE HOLLANDIA william 6/1. A 4yo filly by Afleet. She has raced at this distance 3 times, all of which came this year. She has two 2nds and a 3rd, all three 6f races came in stakes races and lost each by less than 1 ½ lengths. Her career high SP is only a 101 but it did come at 6f so she might be able to do something here but she has the front running style as most of these in here does. So that raises questions if she can stay and if she can run with graded company.
5. 52943 AIM FOR THE MOON teamfoppa 9/2. A 4yo filly by Woodman, she’s the 56th rank in this division. Four of her 20 career races have come at 6f and her record is a win breaking her maiden, then two 2nd’s in allowance company and most recently a 3rd in a G2 race. Her SP’s are improving as she gets older and she ran a 106SP three races back, so she can win this maybe. However she is another who is a frontrunner and most of the time if she doesn’t get the lead she won’t do that great.
6. 226 FAN DANCER super21 11/1. A 4yo filly by Lear Fan. This filly has a good 13 wins from 23 starts, she’s raced at 6f 7 times with a record of 4 wins, but they came in starter allowance races and claim races. She has improved each year and has 3 wins from 4 starts this year all 3 were at 5.5f. Her lone loss came at 6f, she also has never ran past a 98 SP, which is why she’s probably the long shot here, chances don’t look too good.
7. 43798 FLEETWOOD GOLD fleetwood 5/1. A 5yo mare by Strike the Gold, she’s the 54th rank in this division. She’s raced at 6f six times with a record of 3 wins, a 2nd and a two 3rd’s. As a 2yo and 3yo she was just average but as a 4yo and this year at 5 she has improved a good amount running 1st-3rd in her last 10 races. Her last race which was at 6f was though her worst race in her last 10 races even though finished 3rd. She is a midpack/closing type runner and with the way she’s been racing lately, she’d be my next choice to win if the favorite fails.