Creepshow, Pub Crawl, Spare T, more clash in classic 2,000 Guineas(G1)
Newmarket– Forget about Kentucky, folks… this here’s the race! It’s the Grade 1 $350,000 2,000 Guineas, classic Simster-style (uh huh!). And we have such a fabulous field of turf colts too….. eat your heart out Bluegrass state!
The 2,000 Guineas tests 3YO colts over 8 furlongs even. In real life, it’s the 1st leg of the English Triple Crown. Here in the Sim though, there is no established Triple Crown for turf sophomores. Additionally, the Bluegrass Derby upstages the Guineas races (and, fair to say, the Derby de English in June also looms large over the milers). The Guineas then presides as pretty much a stand alone classic.
Last year’s extremely anticipated renewal saw the division’s earlybird leader Niner Connection bring home the bacon. ‘Niner played the “challenger” role versus the “champion” (2004 Sim Eclipse 2YO Turf Colt champ General’s Chariot). Delightfully, we have a similar situation here with last year’s Eclipse champion Pub Crawl(IRE) versus another testy foe: Creepshow(IRE), winner of 3 of his last 4 Grade 1 races, including the Equinics.
But that’s just the beginning of the story! Twelve other contenders vie for the fantastic honor here at Newmarket. The course is firm. The punters’ bets are in. Time for raised champagne glasses in a historic salute to the 6th running of the Sim 2,000 Guineas.
Let’s meet our heroes………
The Faves:
9/2 – Creepshow(IRE) (lenny28): Remember I said this guy was like Niner Connection? Well, in truth, he’s probably more like Manifest Destiny was at this point last year (9f winner). Creepshow(IRE) bloomed late last season, hitting the board on DelPenn Day. He’s since been on fire as a 3yo though around nine panels. The Rock Of Gibraltar(IRE) son seemingly adores the extra ground, winning grades at Japan and New South Wales, and of course the 1 3/16 miles Equinics division.
OK, this is really funny: there were 3 Equinics races for 3yo turf colts in February. Creepshow won the 9.5f one with gorgeous ease. Pub Crawl was supposed to win the 6f race, but he ran kind of even in his 2006 debut. The actual miler race on Equinics day was impressively won by a colt named Cortez(IRE). Two weeks ago, both miler Cortez and 9f-10f stayer Creepshow met in the 1st 12f “Derby”: the Sydney Derby. All eyes on Creepshow, he looked like an absolute shoe-in….. but he lost, rallying rather mildly over the extra quarter-mile. The winner? Miler Cortez(IRE).
So, it’s a flip-flop. Everyone’s earlybird stayer heir to Horseshoe Bay, Creepshow(IRE), cuts back to a mile. Meanwhile, everyone’s earlybird Guineas favorite, Cortez(IRE), goes onward Saturday in the 2nd 12f “Derby” (Adelaide Derby) as the new “Horseshoe Bay” threat. Are ya with me? Ha!
Totally see Lenny maybe trying 12f again — the Sydney wasn’t a bad race. But, then again, you might point to Deputy Minister as damsire, limiting true stayer 12f+ power in Creepshow. But that’s down the road though — I fully expect this colt to run well here if not for the win. Don’t panic if he only hits the board or so. It could be that he’s one of those 10f niche horses and there’s lots of great races in the Sim… maybe not celebrated, but they need stars! Windy City Turf Classic in August and the “twin” million dollar 10f events at the end of the year. This is a talented horse only making his 8th start, so find his best distance. Top jockey A Craig in the irons. We’ll see how versatile Creepshow is in the Classic Turf division.
7/1 – Pub Crawl(IRE) (stormborn): Out of odds-order, but I want to talk about the champion next! Haven’t spoken with Dan (Given) in a while, and just want to shout out that this is a great move, Dan! Last year’s Eclipse champ won the award on the strength of three Grade 1 wins from 7f-8f. He got caught late though just a tad in the Breeders Bowl’s 8.5f.
So, fast forward to 2006, tossing out the Equinics off the board finish. That race came after a huge layoff (mid-December through early Feb.), plus the yielding surface might’ve done in Pubby’s chances. More importantly, Dan gets his colt to follow that effort up with a gritty 101 SP# photo over 7.5f. What a wonderful tough performance! Even though he’s won a heap of dough around one-turn, I really think this El Prado(IRE) could be best as a true miler. Four weeks rest — I just love his chances! So-so jockey, but I fully expect Pubby to stretch his speed, adoring the flat mile. A lot of true milers can’t show their best stuff with an extra sixteenth. He’s really the sole speed in this group too. He’s my pick to win the Guineas. Good luck, Dan. 🙂
5/1 – Spare T(IRE) (super28): Totally stiff competition here from one of the super horses. This Theatrical(IRE) son raced in good company at age 2 and kept knocking on the door. But, at age 3, wow! He was a solid 3rd to Cortez(IRE) in the Equinics mile race and followed that effort up with classy measure, taking the Chantilly Lace(G3). Positvely bowled them over three weeks ago in a 101 SP# beat-’em-up listed event.
If there was a bit more speed in this race to challange Pub Crawl(IRE), then I’d definitely go with Spare T’s form. He’s on a roll. However, he’s a bit of a midpacker and you can even call him a closer too. However, if the Super folks looked at this race and set their Jockey Settings, moving Spare T up in the pack (he pressed the pace a lot last year), then watch out. I think he’s been a different horse though since running from off pace, thus he might get cooked if they do that. Gorgeous colt — we’re gonna hear more from him this year and perhaps as soon as this Saturday. I’d take his price on the board though.
In The Wings:
9/1 – Ollie’s Gone (beamnreasn): Gone West son won the Kcusrocek(G3) in fine style LTO. It was only his 6th career call to the post. He had previously been a precocious dual-stakes winner and placed 2nd to Creepshow(IRE) in the 9.5f division of the Equinics.
Remarkable runner with reams of upside. Just how good is he? Six weeks rest into Saturday. What a fabulous career-calling if he can break on through to the winner’s circle. Major threat from off pace and a board showing would be more than honorable. Like his chances, but needs some speed to run at. Dangerous.
9/1 – Zanzabar(IRE) (peeps8): Dracula(G3) winner adds graded credentials to this deep field. Galileo(IRE) son could join Pub Crawl(IRE) out on the lead or sit back a bit behind pace. Green but imrpving all the time. Worthy shot here and much better than odds indicate — he should be about 7/1 or 8/1.
Can’t be discounted. Will be tested in thorough duel up front. If Pub Crawl doesn’t show up though, this guy is more than capable of taking this one wire to wire. Threat.
10/1 – Drop The Bomb(GB) (mikehusker): Longtime Sim player brings a Beat Hollow(IRE) colt to the table. Gorgeous colt picked up the miler groove towards the end of last season, winning in restricted company on DelPenn Day. Pretty fine style if I may say so too — versatile on or off the pace. Tested 9f and 9.5f earlier on this season and with good results, hitting the board a couple of times. Wow, sassy youngster trying to find his superior groove. Prepped versus listed company for the Guineas and the result was a workman-like 94 SP# 8f score.
Just how good is he? Certainly passes the class test and absolutely seems to have blossomed as a 3yo. Winless jockey though has to pilot ‘Bomb from behind the pace. Not without a chance if he can break on through. Live “mild” longshot. Keep an eye on this one!
11/1 – Michelangelo(IRE) (given2): Dan’s 2nd entry is by Galileo(IRE). Graded-placed at age 2, this colt’s been the bridesmaid in listed company in 3 of 4 sophomore starts. Strong 100 SP# LTO from off pace. This guy needs pace to run at.
Not as solid as Pub Crawl, but still a contender. He’ll need a big run though to break on through with this group. Worth a shot, but outsider with much to prove at this level.
13/1 – Very Silver (acote): Runner-up to Always Improving in last year’s Breeders Bowl, Very Silver has been here and there at age 3. Wasn’t anywhere near competitiveness over 9f versus Creepshow(IRE), but picked back up the best in the Miler Equinics (decent but even 6th from off pace).
Dominated a listed stakes afterwards over a mile, but hasn’t raced in 7 weeks since. Always a talented stalker, but have the late blooming colts caught up with him? Needs to run like gangbusters off the layoff. Top experienced jockey in the irons for the #4 ranked Turf Classic colt. Not to be discounted breaking from the rail.
13/1 – The Understudy(IRE) (sykesy): Hard running Theatrical(IRE) colt makes 6th start already this season. Average freshman 2yo over the lawn enjoyed stretching out to 9f, 9.5f, winning short field listed stakes. Speedster well beaten over 10f and 12f (versus Creepshow in Sydney Derby).
My guess is that he’s better over middle distances. Outside chance.
The Longshots:
15/1 – Inept Distortions (nocalbred): Fresh off of a surprising 2nd in the Kcusrocek(G3), this Distorted Humor son has 6 weeks rest. It was the best race of the closer’s career so far, missing by just a length with a 95 SP#. Love the progression in SP#s and he definitely seems to appreciate a shorter trip.
Keeps on improving with his royal bred female family to back him up. Needs some pace to run at though. Yicky jockey to boot. Can’t discount him for a breakout performance — it’s a true testament to the depth of this field. Must run his absolute best. Possible.
16/1 – Andy’s Choice (gunsynd): High Flyer(G1) winner last year was an eye-catching 4th in in the BB Juvy Turf, closing from way off pace. Rainbow Quest son proved it was no fluke too, following the effort up with a roundabout 2nd on DelPenn Day.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been the same at age 3. Granted 2 of his 3 starts came at 9f+ and his Gone West female family might better indicate stamina limitations. Misentered LTO versus older horses, so toss that race right out. He’s retruning to his High Flyer flat mile — can he turn his season around? Difficult spot to do so, but classy colt. Five weeks rest, breaks from far outside, and good jockey. Flip a coin, but if he’s on target Saturday….. you can claim “back class” recovered as a serious vindication.
16/1 – Gallant Dancer (coffee): Dual-listed stakes winner by Sadler’s Wells tossed a clinker in the Craven(G3) two weeks ago. Hasn’t been able top translate his form to the graded level yet, but, in a ll fairness, drew a pair of off tracks which he clearly doesn’t like. Fine miler from about midpack or thereabouts.
Has to pass the class test. Can he handle this level? Worthy entry after 98 SP# score over 8.5f two starts ago. Wildcard. just don’t know if he’ll show up. Decent jockey but two weeks rest might be cutting it close… or result in a superiorly sharp effort.
16/1 – Comiskey (eomer): Elusive Quality son played the staying game this year with mixed results. Closer started out fine enough, winning his initial black type bscore over 9.5f in listed company. Comiskey followed that fine form up with a gritty 3rd in Grade 1 company over the same distance, flying from the back of the pack. Had a rough time LTO in the Sydney Derby(G1) though.
Solid colt trying to find his best course. Certainly bred for the Monster Mile by a world record holder. Pretty decent outsider here — always beware of runners cutting back in distance…. they’re capable of throwing huge SP#s when returned to their optimum distance. The jury’s still out though on whether or not this guy appreciate the mile, or perhaps 9f or so. Has some guts….. needs a big flashy turnaround here though. Capable with a good jockey in the irons.
19/1 – Hail Cesario (catahoula): Classy 2yo who was a late blooomer last year. Been all over the board at age 3 though. 0-for-4 in 2006. Toss out dirt effort and 9f & 11f efforts. Seeking The Gold royal bred returns to his beloved short routes.
Even though he’s the longest shot on the board, this guy’s has the classy goods to play the spoiler. Needs pace to run at up front. Outside chance to turn it around but Eclipse-winning trainer can get the job done.
Snowchief’s Analysis:
I really like Pub Crawl to take the Guineas wire to wire… that is, if he shows up. 🙂 Extremely deep field all around with proven turf milers. Totally believe Creepshow will run his race over this short distance — he’s a good one. Andy’s Choice, Hail Cesario, Very Silver all have back class worthy of turning it around. Spare T is gorgeous in one word. Green Olllie’s Gone is one to watch. Zanzabar might surprise if Pubby has a rough time. Inept Distortions should enjoy this shorter trip. My oh my, the list goes on!
But I’m taking the champion here over the hot horse, with the classiest devil to show. I think they’re all well-placed here and fit for their run to glory.
Win: Pub Crawl
Place: Spare T
Show: Creepshow
Good luck to all and Happy Derby Day! Enjoy the 2,000 Guineas!