G1 Exam Stakes Draws Tremendous Bunch o’ Fillies

This article is all about the upcoming Grade 1 Exam Stakes, and I promise I’ll get right on that after this brief bit of real-life racing news, which happens to be the reason I chose this race to cover this week.

I don’t post all that often on the Forum, but I have definitely made multiple posts regarding a filly whose debut I saw in-person at Pleasanton (Alameda County Fair) last summer. That filly was She’s A Tiger, who went on from that debut win (by nine lengths, in impressive style!) to become the Eclipse Award winner for 2yo fillies, and she was the subject of much discussion around my house these last few months.

Unfortunately, She’s A Tiger developed some sort of breathing problem this year and only ran once, an ugly 7th in a graded stakes on Derby Day at Churchill Downs.

Now comes the word that She’s A Tiger has been retired. While no specifics have been stated about the reasons why she’s done racing, the point is she’s done racing and will be sold at Fasig-Tipton this fall.

Now, what does this news have to do with this sim-race? Well, the Exam Stakes mirrors the conditions of the real-life Test Stakes, a race that She’s A Tiger might well have run in had things gone well for her health-wise in 2014. So, please look at my Exam Stakes coverage as a little tribute to She’s A Tiger.

The Exam Stakes is a Grade 1 contest at New York, a 7-furlong main-track dash for 3yo fillies. The event has drawn a field chock-full of top-quality young femmes including top-ranked YOU GIRL. Four more of the top 10 are in the field, and another four are ranked in the Top 30. The purse is $250,000, but the prestige of taking a Grade 1 trophy home after beating this fantastic bunch will mean even more!

The stakes record for this race is 1:20 4/5 (116.143 rating), set on a sloppy track in 2007 by Devil In Mrs Jones. This record could be threatened, considering how often 3yo fillies mature by huge amounts this time of year. As an example, that performance by Devil In Mrs Jones was an 11-point improvement over any previous rating she earned.

OUT OF SHAPE won the Grade 3 Love Muffins Stakes in very impressive style last time out, her fourth straight win. The Distorted Humor filly earned a spectacular 110 speed rating for that effort, the highest last-race figure in today’s field and tied for the best career-high speed with CHIPPEWA, also. Her last three wins have been of the dominating kind, so it’s fair to say that primus2 has this filly very much IN shape. Last time out, she also showed that she can win from a stalking position, so she has the ability to stay out of the expected speed duel. She is the lukewarm 9/2 favorite.

YOU GIRL is the top-ranked sophomore filly in the Sim but is somewhat surprisingly not the favorite, getting 7/1 odds. She boasts six consecutive graded-stakes wins; interestingly, her winning margin in each of the last five of those wins has been exactly one length, no matter whether she vied for the early lead, stalked, stayed well back, or set the pace herself. Even her speed figs have been remarkably consistent in those five wins, with only a six-point variant. Trainer falcon12 has got this Sea The Stars filly tuned up like a Ferrari, to be sure, but she might be in a little trouble in the speed department unless that summer 3yo performance boost kicks in. Consistent filly should be in the hunt, but might not have quite enough speediness to get the job done in this bunch.

QUEEN OF LOVE has been close to the winner’s circle multiple times in graded sprint stakes, but has only managed to grab the trophy once, in the 2-turn Grade 1 Leopard Stakes at Iowa. The Encosta De Lago filly’s speed numbers have been a little on the low side and trainer asoiaf2 hopes his late-closing sprinter/miler can find a little more quicks here and surprise at 12/1.

EXCELSIO is a daughter of Exceed And Excel who has made big runs late at long odds in her two most recent, both Grade 2 races. The boro trainee goes off at 11/1, quite a bit lower odds than in her last two. She probably thinks she’s the favorite… Watch out for her in the lane.

CHIPPEWA is ranked #5 in this division, and has also demonstrated that she can win on turf, winning her last pair on that surface. The scratch-bred Forestry filly has the goods to be a threat here off the switch back to the main track if duefizz has her wound up tight enough off just a three-week break. She is the 2nd choice at 6/1.

PRIDEFUL WARRIOR is a War Front filly trained by migman11. Her tries vs. graded-stakes company have only resulted in nibbles at the purse money, and her speed numbers will need to go up appreciably to get a large chun of cash in this spot. Odds seem a bit low at 10/1.

PI IN THE PALACE couldn’t hold off today’s favorite in the Grade 1 Priceless Stakes at 6f, so the scorehobby4 trainee has a number of questions to answer here at 10/1. Considering that the speedy scratch-bred Dansili filly is ranked #8 in this division, it’s a compliment to the high quality of this bunch to state that she might become a pace victim; but that just might be what happens.

BATH COUNTY just barely missed the tote board after setting all the pace in YOU GIRL‘s Grade 1 Priceless Stakes win last time out. The Shackleford filly dueled with PI IN THE PALACE in that race, and another duel like that one could very well result in both being pace victims. Maybe brightvalr has different ideas with his 16th-ranked filly this time, but the front end is where she’s always been. Her 16/1 odds also indicate that the pace picture doesn’t favor this one too well.

NO SUCH RIVER comes into the race ranked “only” #24, but the Falbrav filly also brings an undefeated main-track record into the fray for cougar. She takes her first crack at Grade 1 company, but it’s worth noting that three in this field chased this one home in her one graded-stakes try, the Grade 3 Priority Princess Stakes. Good value bet at 10/1.

MINNY MINNESOTA is somewhat of a rarity, a Minnesota-bred taking on Grade 1 competition, and not without a chance. The only stakes-winning offspring of Love My M. D., this womanpause trainee took home stakes trophies in her last two and has won her last four dirt races. This is quite a jump in the class department, but the filly is on a roll and could surprise at 22/1.

COLD VENGEANCE, ranked #7, is a Hussonet filly who has chased YOU GIRL home in her last two, finishing 2nd both times. The lenny10 trainee was making up quite a bit of ground late in both of those 6-furlong events, so she certainly has a good shot at turning the tables here, and the odds are quite enticing at 16/1.

IM A SORE LOSER is ranked #21 in this division despite having been unable to make much of a dent in Grade 1’s thus far, getting a 3rd in a 4th in four tries. The versatile Redoute’s Choice filly (also ranked #45 in the Route division) had her best performance at 7.5 furlongs in the Grade 3 Owner’s Tree Stakes, so maybe gunners4 is zeroing in on his filly’s best distance. The CPU agrees, giving 8/1 odds.

WAR PROSPECTOR found her way to #10 on the rankings after beating a somewhat light-for-the-level field in the Grade 3 Dynamita Sprint at Mexico last time out. She gets 15/1 odds, apparently reflective of that field. Trained by omroiwalmo, the War Front filly is out of a productive Sim-mare that has never produced a non-winner in 12 offspring. Her stalking style might prove helpful on her best effort.

LOST MY VOUCHER couldn’t catch NO SUCH RIVER two races back, but the redhill26-trained Dehere filly got back into the winner’s circle last time in the Grade 3 Azalea Special and the #29-ranked 3yo filly sprinter could be a danger in this one at 11/1.

Time to crank up the ol’ crystal ball… I just got it back from the shop!

I’m gonna go with the favorite (darn boring, crystal ball!). She’s got the best last-race speed rating and that was in a graded stakes, and she is also the only one in here whose rider has ridden her to a graded-stakes win in the past. OUT OF SHAPE to win…

NO SUCH RIVER has a terrific finishing kick, and that should get her 2nd…

The ultra-consistent YOU GIRL will be tough as always, but not quite enough for this bunch. Don’t leave her out of your exotics!

Good luck all!