Looking To Shine: 14 Clash in Shiny Gem Stakes (GII)
It’s said that the three year olds’ “second season” starts today; usually those that talk of the second season point to the Eddie Haskell Stakes and the premier prep for the GI Travelers Stakes later this summer, but there is a full field of 14 runners looking to make it to the “Midsummer Derby” via a different, lower-profile route in today’s Shiny Gem Stakes.
With the favorites at a lofty 6/1, and only two of the runners above 20/1, this promises to be an extraordinarily competitive matchup between some up-and-comers in the three year old division. Let’s break down the field:
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments | |
1 | THEY CALL ME MAGIC | 8/1 | Of the two fillies in the race, this is the one that will have a shot at affecting the outcome: her last two races have seen her run a very solid 4th in the G1 Sister Hen against her own sex, and prior to that,she notched a good G3 win with a 106 speed figure. She’s a versatile daughter of | ||||
2 | DIAMOND HEAD | 8/1 | Steps into this race off of a very good win in the G2 Buckeye Derby, and while his sire’s pedigree seems to indicate sprints would be his forte, but he’s handled the distance well. The tactic switch in his last gives him a whole new dimension, and he’s the most likely victor in this race if he duplicates that closing kick, but be wary of the possibility of a bounce. | ||||
3 | GO GO YUBARI | 12/1 | He’s young, he’s talented, but inexperienced, speedy, and the beginning of the end for all the pace horses in this race. There’s too much speed and only room for one leader on the racetrack, so they’ll be sizzling early and the speed will be backing up late. I doubt he has the seasoning to gut his way past the other speed horses in this race. | ||||
4 | DEMOLITION | 10/1 | Speed numbers make him competitive, but he has yet to demonstrate that he’s of this class. Saving grace may be that he won his last race from way off the pace, and this one will set up well for him. If he’s stakes quality, he can challenge for the top spot, but he has some questions to answer today. | ||||
5 | REQUIEM’S BLADE | 22/1 | Loves the dirt, and his last race shows a speed figure that makes him competitive. He shouldn’t be part of the pace, and may get first run at the leader. This may be the first stakes I’ve looked at in a long time where one can seriously see the longest shot in the board coming home on top in some scenarios. | ||||
6 | SCOOBS CONNECTION | 10/1 | Another | ||||
7 | FORBIDDEN TREASURE | 10/1 | The boss sends one out here; billgulch switches the colt back to dirt after a reasonably fruitful foray onto the lawn. He hooked some absolute terrors last time out in the Newmarket Rivalry Stakes, but against this sort of competition on the Triple Crown trail he acquitted himself respectably. That said, his closing punch isn’t as strong as some of the others; he seems fairly one-paced, and may appreciate 12 furlongs or more; he’ll find some of the more explosive horses difficult to fend off, but he should be there in the mix for a check. | ||||
8 | VINDIANA JONES | 6/1 | Jaw-dropping pedigree, and blinding early speed, but that blinding early speed spells near-certain doom in this race. Unless he’s heads and shoulders above the rest of the field, which he doesn’t look to be, there’s simply too many talented speed horses who seem to need to be on or close to the lead. At 6/1, he offers little value in a race were even the longest shot on the board has a chance to win, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win this if the rest of the speed inexplicably falls apart. | ||||
9 | HYSTERICAL(IRE) | 10/1 | Sometimes pedigrees play funny games, and I’m mystified as to how a Theatrical x Miswaki colt prefers the dirt, but prefer the dirt this one does. Mostly an allowance runner, he crashed and burned in his lone graded attempt that shows on his past performances, not to mention his running style: you guessed it, he’ll be running from the start, and barring a miracle, backing up through the stretch almost as quickly as he leaves the gate. Just another very talented horse caught in a very bad situation this time out. | ||||
10 | GUNS OF AUGUST | 13/1 | Talented but not overly impressive, this one has yet to show that he wants any part of graded stakes competition, and he may simply be outclassed today. Not sure about how much stock I can put in owner-restricted races, which tend to be hit-or-miss as far as quality of competition goes, so this one is a fairly unknown quantity. Maybe a y ear away from his peak, judging from the pedigree. | ||||
11 | DOUBLE THE BET | 10/1 | Quite a pricey pedigree, and has managed to crack the 100 speed figure barrier twice in three races, but smushed between those two efforts is an atrocious 81, not to mention he shows no recent success against open stakes company (only restricted races); his Triple Crown Trail experience was a disaster. I have a hard time seeing this one making a serious impact. | ||||
12 | CANUNGRA FOLLY | 6/1 | Another beautiful pedigree, and judging strictly from the results of his most recent races, he should be the obvious choice, but as you start to look closely, you notice that he hasn’t raced since week 2482. A 14 week layoff may help him survive the season in one piece, but it’s not going to do wonders for his performance today. He’s probably one race away from his best “A” effort, so whether he can win this with a B+ effort is up for debate, especially since he’ll be tracking that blistering pace fairly intently. May turn for home and fine 14 weeks away from the races have taken a fairly serious toll on his immediate abilities to survive a stiff test from a closer. | ||||
13 | MAKEROFDREAMS | 9/1 | Here’s a verifiable closer who will be running late, but I don’t like the 8th place finish last time out, nor the fact that he shows no recent stakes victories. Somewhat of an underlay at 9/1, and there are better values elsewhere in the field. Still, don’t be too surprised if he runs through the stretch for a piece of the purse. | ||||
14 | PJ RIVER LASS | 21/1 | Rounding out the field is this filly, making the female contingent the bookends in the starting gate, and this one has somewhat less of a shot to make any impact. On top of the fact that she’ll be strung out very wide by the plethora of speed that she’s trying to beat to the first turn, she is about 10 points off the speed numbers that will probably be necessary to win this one. May be competitive in her own division, but not here. |