Eddie O’Cap
This Saturday at California, a fantastic field of middle-distance turf stars will face off over 9 furlongs for a snazzy $400k purse and a Grade 1 trophy down where the turf meets the surf… It’s the Eddie O Cap!
This race is jam-packed with graded-stakes champions and looks to be one of the highlights of the 2014 summer racing season, even with the loaded-with-talent King Geoff and Queen Emerald Stakes rightfully attracting tons of attention over at Surrey, England..
STALKING was doing just that, gaining rapidly on EXCAPE in their last outing, the Grade 1 Cobbler Mile on this turf course. He gets much respect from the oddsmakers, who put a 6/1 price on his nose. The extra furlong should suit the Monsun colt’s style to a T. The barnbrook trainee’s bloodlines are a sight to behold; chefs-de-race all over, but no inbreeding showing. Don’t see that every day…
SWORN had a nice 4-race win streak that culminated in a Grade 2 win, but that came to an end when the Curlin colt lost to one of ROXY EPOXY‘s spectacular 122-speed performances. The shadowclaw trainee then came to California and bombed badly as the favorite in the Grade 1 Movieland Turf Cup at 10 furlongs. Maybe he didn’t like the track, maybe he didn’t like the distance, or maybe he just had a bad day. In any case, if he can get back to that 115+ level, he’ll be tough and possibly able to pull off a 12/1 surprise.
NEVER CROSS MOU is one-for-two vs. graded-stakes competition, but the loss was here on California’s turf course, where the Cape Cross colt ran a fairly distant 5th. The horizons trainee will need to turn that one around bigtime in order to cash at 21/1.
WRECK IT RALPH came into the Grade 1 Prince Of Whales Stakes 6-for-6, on a roll with one graded-stakes win already recorded. Then he ran a fine race, getting a 111 speed fig; it was not enough, and he finished 4th. This just goes to show how difficult it is to pile up wins in the rarefied atmosphere of graded-stakes competition. Never one to back down, lenny23 flies his Montjeu colt halfway across the world and shortens his 13/1 longshot up by a furlong for another try.
ALEMARA returns to grass racing after a 3-race look at main-track racing, in which he ran fairly well. Trainer adschus02 hopes the return to a turf course on which he has won a graded race before (the Grade 2 Cherry Limb Stakes last October) will spur his Sea The Stars colt on to a big run at ’em here. The odds are a juicy 16/1.
SUN DYNASTY is currently ranked #4 for this division, mostly due to his trio of Grade 1 wins in his last six starts. The 4yo Monsun colt has shown quite a bit of versatility in his recent runs, coming from fairly far back to get wins in addition to his more typical fly-out-the-gate style. My guess is that masterm04 will have him lay back a bit here due to the added distance he’ll be covering. One of those Grade 1 wins was the BB Mile at this track, a factor in his favor. This all adds up to 5/1 favoritism.
NOPEACFORTHEWICKED is a Lonhro colt with only one graded-stakes try on his race record, but it was a strong 2nd in the Grade 1 Movieland Turf Cup over this course. The willyam13 trainee shortens up a furlong and appears to have a shot at 14/1 with his best effort even though he hasn’t yet been able to top 110 on the speed gun thus far.
ROXY EPOXY will certainly be tough if he fires his best shot; those 122 speed ratings jump right off the page! One of those twin 122’s also got the skunkman2-trained Tanino Gimlet colt his only Grade 1 win in the Woody Ford Stakes, so class isn’t much of a question either, and he gets 6/1 odds. He should have plenty of company on the front end, however.
NO TIPS HERE is a Kitten’s Joy colt coming off highly impressive graded-stakes wins in his last pair, and also looks to have a racing style that will benefit from the expected pace scenario. Nine panels appears to be just the right distance for this steller4 trainee and he likes this racetrack, but he might to bump up his speed figure numbers just a bit to win here… Hard to say that about one with consecutive 110’s… An intriguing bet at 14/1.
FEALTY comes off a sharp minor-stakes win and has a pair of graded-stakes trophies to his name. However, those wins were both in 2013 for the confessor2 trainee. This top-level trainer has done much magic in the past, so maybe he can do it again here at 11/1 with his Curlin colt, who has won two of three at this track.
GIVING BACK looks to repeat his fine 116 speed earned while winning a Grade 3 race in Texas this past April. The Malibu Moon colt will need that level of performance to compete succesfully with these at for trainer gmen. Might be a part of the early pace picture and gets 11/1 odds.
NO MORAL RESTRAINT has had little luck in his two graded-stakes tries at California, but did pull off a Grade 3 win last September. The ritchie-trained Dynaformer colt got an allowance win last time out but he has a lot to prove here. The 11/1 odds seem like they might be a little low.
EXCAPE is on fire at the moment, having piled up five straight including the Grade 1 Cobbler Mile and a Grade 2, both wins at this track. The Dansili colt will need to find some extra stretch oomph to make it through that extra furlong; his only try beyond a mile resulted in a late fade. Trainer blankpoin9 thinks that factor is trumped by his runner’s recent form (look at that 120 in his last!) and gives him another chance at 9 furlongs. Will definitely help provide a very lively pace, and goes off at 6/1.
KAYADOSSERAS has raced at CA six times without a win. The grade-placed 5yo son of Candy Ride will need a huge run to have any shot at grabbing his first graded-stakes win here for blankpoin8, but the CPU sees something good (maybe it thinks the impending speed duel sets things up for him) and drops lower-than-expected 12/1 odds on him.
Heck of a race, and heck of a pace! I have an idea the top frontrunners will cook each other in a pace duel, so…
I’ll pick STALKING to make that late run and get this one…
SUN DYNASTY should have enough to grab the place spot…
I’ll go with NO TIPS HERE to sneak in and get 3rd.
Good luck all!
Great job Kid, WOW, this will be a fantastic race to see. I will go with my good mates horse, Roxy to get the chocolates. Good luck to everyone, just to have a runner in a race of this quality must be exciting.
nice job kiddman
Hmm… How did I get that apostrophe up in the headline? Maybe they should move the race to Ireland… Eddie O’Cap…. Just… Hmmm… 🙂
Good job, goodluck to everyone, i wish you all luck, Sun Dynasty is my pick here
This will be a great race to evaluate “sim class” vs speed figs.
I’m going with Roxy who has proven both, but the class of this amazing field is last years champ Sun Dynasty.
One heck of a mid-summer race.
Roxy Epoxy gets my vote and is due for another 122 run.
Excellent work Kiddman!
This race could see virtually any of the entrants winning. Roxy Epoxy will undoubtedly face the toughest challenge yet of his young career on the front end. He had his way early in those 122 races but this will be a true test.
As his trainer, I begin to wonder when his superb early career form will begin to wane. His last race at a mile against Sun Dynasty appears to not have been as bad as it may look from a speed fig perspective. Another factor I don’t take lightly is his jump back up a furlong from 8 to 9 in this race. When he ran his 122s, he was dropping back 1/2 to 1 furlong.
Champion Sun Dynasty hasn’t run 9F in well over a year and then he came up short. No question he has heart but can he gut out the extra furlong with this group?
There are reasons for me to be confident in Roxy if he can come close to repeating his previous 9F races but how many horses break 120 in their careers let alone twice and should he be expected to do it three times? I don’t expect to him to. I just hope he runs high teens and it be enough to best this incredible field.
My gut is telling me we’ll see a brand new G1 winner after this race is run.
Matty, who would’ve thought this kind of race would come together after our last battle at a mile?!!? I hope your boy and all the other entries run their best race. This will be a lot of fun.
It takes a special horse to run a +120SP twice, too hard to pick against that 🙂
This will be an absolutely phenomenal race, I certainly think the edge is in the favour of Roxy Epoxy, Wreck It Ralph who are proven that they will atleast get a strong 9f.
I was more than happy to send Sun Dynasty back against Roxy Epoxy as this is what makes the sim so great in my mind, racing against the very best in a similar distance as my guy will be so much fun on sunday morning my time.
Certainly a talented field and I think it’s going to be Roxy getting the win here. Will have to watch the replay of it.
Congrats goes out to Willyam and Nopeaceforthewicked for taking the Eddie O Cap.
NPFTW appeared to be the only horse in the field that took a step forward and ran a stout 115 and change in the process. A deserving effort.
Roxy Epoxy finished 2nd, 1 3/4 lengths behind and had an easier time on the front end than I think anyone expected and had no excuses. The winner used the same tactic that Roxy and used when running his prior 122s by dropping back a furlong while Roxy was moving up a furlong from his last race. I think that was the difference today.
Fellow Blazing Saddles Residency rezmate Gowans finished 3rd with a steady run by Giving Back in his G1 debut.
About the only thing I got right in this race was predicting a new G1 winner would emerge.
Hey thank’s Skunk! NPFTW ran the race I was hoping he would run with the drop back from 10f to 9f. Sit right off the pace and out kick the closers. I have to figure out where I am going to run him next.
Nice job, Willyum! Continued good luck with your guy.
Heck of a race! Roxy did get clear early but he had to earn it with fractions of 22 and 4 then 45 and 4. Huge effort by the winner to be sitting just off that pace and still accelerate to the wire. The race was run as a 9f sprint.
Congrats to the winner!