Two Undefeated Colts Do Battle
The Bluegrass Derby Trial Stakes
Grade III
A mile on Fast Dirt
$150,000
All horses, 3 years old
Things are already getting exciting in Kentucky in wait for the first Saturday in May. We are getting set to run down the BLUEGRASS DERBY TRIAL Stakes Race and we have a nicely matched field. There are at least a dozen horses with a chance to capture the crown. Let’s take a look:
1 – MATICALLY BBOR ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 12/1 Kyliette2 7.7% B.Carley 3% 101.9 90.3 405
(CHARISMATIC x SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT) Even though this will be this colt’s first Stakes race in nearly a year, he has looked pretty good this year and especially his last outing when he threw a triple digit SPF and won the race by breezing home. Trainer Kyliette2 may have chosen the right time to move this colt up. Yoss likes him to contend in the race and it looks like you may be able to take advantage of the Morning Line odds and win a few shekels on this guy.
| 2 – GRAN HOPE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | LBGong | 15.4% | D.Sherman | 9% | 95.7 | 90.0 | 86 |
(STRONG HOPE x EL GRAN SENOR x NASHUA) One of the favorites and with good reason if you can figure out what happened in his last outing. He had been rolling with wins and seconds in Stakes races then stumbled out of the gate in the South Bronx GIII and never recovered. He was passed by half the field in the stretch and finished a disappointing 11th. Trainer LBGong had him checked and found him sound and hopes that he just didn’t feel like racing that day. We will see how he feels this week.
| 3 – WAVE GOODBYE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/1 | AlbaRace0 | 16.1% | R.Neeley | 6% | 98.2 | 86.1 | 73 |
(GOODBYE DOENY x DE BRAAK x AZIRAE) This little filly is one of the so called “longshots” in this race and still has a chance. She is stepping down from two GII races in a row and may find this field more to her liking. The last time she ran against the boys she finished a respectable second and trainer AlbaRace0 wants to get his good looking filly back on track. I wouldn’t be surprised if she “Waves Goodbye” to most of them from the front of the field instead of the end this time.
| 4 – SILVER CHRISTMAS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | Crush83 | 20.8% | B.Alt | 6% | 97.2 | 93.4 | 172 |
(FORESTRY x SEEKING THE GOLD x WILD AGAIN) It’s Christmas all year round for trainer Crush83 with this undefeated colt. He has done everything he’s been asked in winning his first three races in a nice progression from maiden to allowance to Stakes. Now he moves up to the next level and tries to increase the streak. He probably needs to bump up his SPF a bit but he’s had a nice improvement every time out and I’m sure not going to bet against him doing it again. Nicely bred and looks to have plenty of heart. Watch out for this one.
| 5 – FOREVERMORE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | Grimmie | 14.6% | L.Cardinal | 12% | 97.0 | 88.0 | 148 |
(FORTY NINER x KRIS S. x LYPHARD) If we were in Baltimore I could ask the Raven who would win this race and he would probably quote, “FOREVERMORE”. However we are in Kentucky and it still may happen. He hasn’t finished worse than third in his past four and three of those were Stakes races. This well bred colt is improving right on schedule and you have to praise trainer Grimmie for the way he has brought this pony along. Just another horse that has a very real chance to contend here.
| 6 – DEATH RATTLE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | SDMF | 18.8% | K.Bortz | 1% | 96.8 | 88.0 | 247 |
(TOUCH GOLD x EL GRAN SENOR x EASY GOER) Lucky 13/1 for the Death Rattle! He bounced back last time after a last place finish in the GII Louisiana Derby. His speed still isn’t what it was previously but trainer SDMF seems to have him back on track. He’s got good breeding and nice earnings so this colt shouldn’t stay down for long.
| 7 – AL HIRT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | Zooomr | 14.3% | T.Belser | 0% | 99.6 | 87.9 | 182 |
(DIXIELAND BAND x KRIS S. x BOLDNESIAN) Another of the handful of 11/1 morning line hoses in this field, trainer Zooomr knows that anything can happen in this race and likes his chances. He has a hot horse that has run well in his past two Stakes attempts and may be ready to break out. Jockey Belser is hungry as well as he hasn’t won yet this year. With 16 years of experience, he is due.
| 8 – EL CORZADOR | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | TheBaker2 | 7.1% | V.Wright | 9% | 95.0 | 89.2 | 123 |
(GREEN DESERT x EL CORREDOR x NORTHERN DANCER) This nice looking colt seemed to get off track a bit during the Equinics and finally found himself again in his last outing where he came from way back during the GII Easy Goer Memorial. That run may be just what he and trainer TheBaker2 needed and they’ve found themselves teamed up in a race with a very real chance to win.
| 9 – BARB’S DUBAI | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | Wolverine | 15.2% | S.Blood | 12% | 93.6 | 89.2 | 102 |
(ESSENCE OF DUBAI x GULCH x VICE REGENT) Trainer Wolverine is trying to stretch this colt out a bit even though he seems to prefer sprint races. In nine sprints, he has an amazing seven wins and two seconds. He has a hot jockey up in Blood and they want to prove that this colt’s mile win on DelPenn Day was no fluke. He is another with a decent chance in this race.
| 10 – PRIVILEGED | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | Saver | 13.3% | D.Givins | 25% | 103.8 | 92.8 | 27 |
(GONE WEST x DANZIG x BUCKPASSER) Trainer Saver must be pulling his hair out over the inconsistency of this colt. When he’s good, he’s very good and when he’s bad…well you know how the story goes. Two back he ran a 103 SPF and just missed the win in a GII. He won two in a row at the beginning of this year including the GI Blue Ant Handicap. Sandwich these wins with a 14th four back and a really lackluster 8th in his last race and you can see the frustration. He could be first here or fourteenth.
| 11 – PAREJO(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | SgtBones | 41.2% | B.Sipe | 8% | 101.9 | 96.7 | 50 |
(SCENIC(IRE) x HOUSEBUSTER x A.P. INDY) Here is the horse that you can’t bet against. Undefeated in five straight races, he just goes out an gets it done. He has progressed through maiden, allowance, Stakes and last time out a GIII race without a blemish. He’s run at four different distances, and even two two different off tracks and always ends up in the winners circle. He loves to sit just off the lead and bring it home in the stretch. Trainer SgtBones seems to have this colt in peak condition and knows where to run him. He is my pick to keep his streak going here.
| 12 – SAMOTH | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | JTLincoln | 40.0% | I.Hoge | 2% | 101.5 | 93.2 | 311 |
(STORM CAT x SILVER CHARM x CURE THE BLUES) This beautiful charcoal colt loves to stalk the leaders from way back and his only problem is that sometimes he believes too much in himself and starts too late or too far back. His heart tells him that he doesn’t ever lose a race, sometimes they are just too short for him to catch the frontrunner. That may be why trainer JTLincoln is stretching him out here as he has run mostly sprints in his young career. His one mile plus trek he finished seventh but was within 1 ½ of the winner. Should be an interesting experiment.
| 13 – TALE OF AUROR | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | Auror | 11.9% | P.Cadigan | 16% | 96.8 | 89.7 | 24 |
(TALE OF THE CAT x MACHIAVELLIAN x LYPHARD) This colt had been slumping before an inspired race last time out in the GI Green Monkey Derby. He is ten of thirteen in the money but had two in a row recently where he was nearer the back than the front of the race. Trainer Auror hopes that everything got straightened out in the Monkey and that the drop back to a mile for the first time in nearly a year will help. This is a horse that won four Stakes in a row last year so he certainly has the heart when he is sound.
| 14 – SENIOR YEAR | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | TheOC2 | 35.7% | R.Staples | 8% | 96.2 | 90.6 | 75 |
(LION HEART x MR. GREELEY x CHIEF’S CROWN) There are lots of interesting stories in this race and this colt is yet another. He comes in on a two race win streak after a pair of disappointing 8th place finishes in Graded Stakes races. Trainer TheOC2 knows how to get the most from his stables, witness his 35% plus win percentage and 8th place finishes don’t sit well with him. He seems to have this promising colt back on track and may be a force to be reckoned with here.
Morning Line = 1-7-5-6
Yoss Tipsheet = 11-12-4-1
Paz Picks = 11-4-12-1
This should be a really fun race to watch as there are a myriad of horses with a legitimate chance to win. I like the colt with the strange name, MATICALLY BBOR to finish fourth. I may regret this but I am taking SAMOTH for third even though I think he could either win or finish off the board. Someone is going to stay undefeated as I will put the two horses without a blemish on their records in my top two. SILVER CHRISTMAS will make it close but I think that PAREJO will have enough to keep that undefeated streak alive.
Good luck to all runners!
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