Short Field of 10 Tackles Grade II ‘Eviscerator’
A short field of 10 (one filly and 9 colts/horses) will contest the 9 furlongs on the dirt course in New York’s feature race on Saturday, the Eviscerator Stakes. The runners by Post Position:
PP 1 – Titan Moon (Dynaformer x Kingmambo), a 6/1 shot from the bulletwork barn, is an intriguing play for exotics under a winner. Though this four year old colt doesn’t have the top-end speed figs some of his competitors here have (his career best is 107), he still has some definite pluses: He’s a good closer adding a furlong to his last race distance (where he finished a closing 3rd), and he’s got a consistent, hardworking record (14 of 20 starts ITM, only horse in this field with his last five straight speed figs in double figures). On the questions side: Will he get the pace he needs to close fast enough? Will he be able to outclose some of the favored stalker/closers down the stretch? I’m thinking this one definitely has a shot at a check, but may need too much to cross the finish line first.
PP 2 – Ancient Vic(GB) (Old Vic(GB) x Bellypha(IRE) comes to this race from the saxlhof barn looking a bit overmatched here. His only two lifetime stakes races were ungraded, and he beat a total of two horses in those races, finishing a combined total of 32 lengths back. To expect a step up to Grade II company off of those two races seems a bit optimistic. But then again, that’s why they run the races, and how legends are begun.
PP 3 – Kissin Cousin II (Sadler’s Wells x Gone West) is a 5 year old horse from the sherwood barn, and is hoping to recapture a bit of the magic he’s shown at the ungraded level. His last two were Graded tries (a Grade III and a I), and disappointing, but his two prior to that were a pair of wins with matching 105 speed figs in ungraded company. He can be all over the board in his performances, but recent form and class issues has me believing that this one might deserve to be a bit longer on the morning line than 5/1. I wouldn’t count on an in-the-money performance this time.
PP 4 – Desert Regent (Green Desert x Ack Ack) is the senior citizen in this field at 7 years old, although he’s only starting his 27th lifetime race on Saturday. And he’s still fiesty, coming off of an allowance win LTO in triple figures. Four races ago he placed in a Grade II race with a scalding 112 speed fig. The problem is, there was a 314 day layoff after that race, and while the Regent is showing he can still run with this type (including a show in a Grade I two races back), the 110+ numbers haven’t shown up again yet. Still, with tactical and versatile speed, this old man certainly has the ability to run with these, and with his best effort, can win.
PP 5 – Laconia Light (A.P. Indy x Smart Strike) comes in as the morning line favorite at 7/2 and with pretty good reason. He’s a Grade I winner (2nd race back), he’s consistent (10 of his last 11 have been triple digit speed figs, a streak in which he won 6 of those 11), and he’s even versatile enough to stalk the speed or come from the back. If there’s any worry at all here, it might be the distance. This whitehall trainee has done his best running of late from 10 to 12 furlongs. With a clean trip and an honest pace, this royally bred star can run down all comers in this and take the lion’s share of the purse.
PP 6 – Toy Maker (Harlan’s Holiday x Darshaan(ENG)) is another intriguing possibility that I think is a very nice value price at 6/1. In fact, he shares a number of positives with 7/2 favorite Laconia Light. He’s a classy Grade I winner who can put together 110+ speeds on his best day, and can run on the lead and stalk with equal skill. And on this day, he also has the services of a top jock, N. Lawton. If you throw out his last time out (and he didn’t seem to have much of an excuse that I could see, beyond a big bounce), the Toy Maker might be primed to give his trainer darshaan a trip to the winner’s circle.
PP 7 – Sinanju (Rahy x Nijinsky II) is a four year old colt from the frosty barn who’s been giving his connections fits trying to figure out which horse will show up on a given raceday. Two races back, he electified the crowd with his stretch run, coming from deep in the pack to within 3/4 of a length of the winner in the Grade I California Handicap to get the place money. On that day he closed 12 lengths from the 2nd call til the finish line in the 10f race. Then, his last time out, at almost identical odds, he finished a well-beaten 10th, 18 1/2 lengths back, in another 10 furlong dirt Grade I clash. I like this guy’s ability, but I worry about the consistency, or lack of it.
PP 8 – Chasing Dreams (Deputy Minister x Mr. Prospector) is a longshot closer from the montalcino stable who, like Ancient Vic in post 2 might be in a bit over his head. He appears to be a very solid high allowance/ungraded stakes quality runner who has had one lifetime race in triple digits (a 100, 3 races back). Should be coming late for the wire, but maybe not enough speed to cash a check here.
PP 9 – Pleistocene Epoch (Capote x Kingmambo) is the entry from nextbonus, and it’s an ambitious one. Not only is she the only girl in the race, it’s her first foray into Graded territory. But not all is gloom and doom. After pulling up three races back, she put together a decent comeback allowance start, and followed it up with a sterling ungraded stakes win last time out, at this exact distance, and at 9/1 odds. She’ll need a whole lot of things to go right for her on Saturday, but if she shows yet another improving race, she’s got a shot at a check.
PP 10 – Sadleberry T (Tabasco Cat x Sadler’s Wells) lines up on the outside, and the five year old from the ted stable seems to be the most confirmed front-runner in the field today, and will probably have the most to say about the pace here. He’s coming off of a tooth-and-nail biting wire to wire win in the ungraded Proper Reason Challenge, where every call had him within a length of the 2nd place horse. Shows a lot of fight and heart, but the speeds that some of the competition has shown in the past make me worry this one just doesn’t have enough in the tank for the stretch run.
My Picks –
1) Toy Maker – Throw out last, and this one wins a stretch battle with Laconia Light
2) Laconia Light – Furious battle in stretch, falls just short.
3) Desert Regent, Titan Moon, and Sinanju – Should all be flying at the wire, should be a tossup for the show purse.