Back to scene of crime?

By ITCH

West Virginia Stakes Competition trainers dream of a day like Ts1442 had back in week 2797 in the FAT FREE DENNY SPECIAL.

His ROYAL FORTY INDY and DIAMOND HEAD swept the first two places that day, propelling Tom all the way to the championship of our third contest in these here hills.

Can he do it again? Royal Forty Indy and Diamond Head are entered back here Saturday in the CAD FOR CARDS MEMORIAL, along with two more from the Ts1442 barns: TOM’S SHINING STAR and TOM’S CRISPY CRUNCH.

Heck, who’s to say Tom won’t sweep the trifecta this time?

How about Stretch and new contest player Buzzfarm, both of whom have two horses in this race?

Stretch has INDISPENSABLE, who was fourth that fateful day back in 2797, and STORMY.

New man Buzzfarm, who is heartily welcomed to Old Waterford, and has a week’s supply of complimentary Hillybilly Hamburgers waiting for him at the Trackside Grill, surely was thinking of this entry when he signed up for the contest last week. He brings HUSTLIN HOOSIER and FALSE PROSPECTS.

And, the ever-present Wassie is on the far outside with PEGASUS SWORD G.

So, that’s nine contest horses out of a full field of 14. The odds look good that even more points are gonna get racked up this week.

As always, we will go to Sinoboy to rank them from top to bottom in qualifying order.

Before we do, a few general observations about this field. Number one thing we see is not much pace on here. A lot of these runners are shortening from longer distances, and the field is basically loaded with plodders. I will say if I had one in here with any speed at all, I’d be awfully tempted to hit the send button. The only ones in here with indication for early speed at this 8.5-furlong distance are Indispensable, SEATTLE DEPUTY, CHEESE AND MAC T, Tom’s Crisy Crunch and Pegasus Sword G, and more than of those are in spotty form.

As a matter of fact, there are quite a few runners in here who haven’t done much running lately. Not the toughest full stake field you are ever gonna see in the Sim, I’ll say that.

OK, let’s run ’em down one by one.

The top qualifier is Diamond Head, which in itself, gives some indication as to the weak nature of this field, being as he holds that spot easily by a margin of almost 30 stakes points despite a 10-race losing streak. Even though he hasn’t won, this Buckeye Derby winner is in good form, having been second last out in the aforementioned Fat Free Denny. I’ll bet when Tom read the earlier comment about the lack of speed in here, he said, “what about my horse?” He has shown pressing speed at going longer, but he’s shortening up here, and I think that translates to closing at 8.5 furlongs for this horse. We’ll see.

Second qualifier is Buzzfarm’s HUSTLIN HOOSIER out of his kk1039 barn. As a new trainer to the contest, let’s check him out on Sinoboy’s trainer stats. Bad news boys: This is a capable Simmer. This barn has six wins from 37 starts this year, and a whopping four of those are stake wins. He’s got this 4yo son of Finder’s Gold, a Seeking the Gold sire, in good form, winning a stake last out. That being said, that race was at 9.5 furlongs, not 8.5, and a review of his lifetime past performances reveals four straight poor races at this distance. That fact definitely creates doubt about his chances.

Can he do it at the distance? This is the question we’re asking about a lot of them in here, and it applies to ROYAL FORTY INDY, who has raced successfully at distances as long as two miles, and is only racing half that far here Saturday. No questioning this horse’s class or current form. He followed up that win in the Fat Free Denny with a second place finish last out in a Grade 2. He’s ranked No. 24 in all of the Sim in the long division. He’ll be flying late, and it’s just a question of what comes first, the wire or the telling of his superior class. A very, very good chance of hitting the board, you would think.

No. 4 qualifier is Stretch’s INDISPENSABLE. I am afraid I am starting to think this son of Aptitude does not like it here at the Spa of the Appalachians. He’s raced five times here now, missing the board all five times. The only time this year he shipped out of West Virginia, he hit the board in a New Jersey stake. At the end of last year, the horse finished second in a Grade 2 in California, for Pete’s sake. You’d think all of the Sim tracks would be the same, but maybe it ain’t so. He gets Jocko aboard this time, maybe that will help. Or not.

Qualifying fifth is a non-contest horse, CUNNING TALE out of the horizonkj barn. This one is getting some big-time respect from Charlie Hoop, the Drunken Morning Line Oddsmaker. In odds brought to you by Budweiser and rotgut whiskey, Cunning Tale is 6-1 co-favorite with Royal Forty Indy. Old Charlie might not be so far off with this one, however. He won the Your Pigeon Handicap right here at Old Waterford last out, at this exact distance. That’s something a lot of the other classy contenders do not have: recency at this distance. This horse has raced four times in a row at 8.5 furlongs, and has won three in a row. This isn’t the only horse going good for horizonkj, who is hitting ’em at a very nice 18.9 percent so far this year with seven total winners.

Wassie is in the sixth spot, with Pegasus Sword G. Breaking widest of all, Pegasus is another one of those enigmas that shows just how tough this Sim can be. He won his first ever stake try, back in 2181 as a 2yo, and it looked like the sky was the limit. Instead, he’s missed the board in nine straight stake tries since. How you gonna figure that? Tough game.

Seventh is SEATTLE DEPUTY out of the ets7 barn. This son of Silver Deputy will be looking to parlay sharp form in restricted allowance races at a mile into success at 8.5 in the stake. Another thing we notice is those last two allowance races were limited to 4yo only, so he’s giving up more than one restriction on the class jump here. Whether he handles all that or not, ets7 still has a tremendous claim here. He only paid $13,500 for this horse back in 2622, and has won four races with him since. If he wins here Saturday, or even hits the board, it’ll make the previous owner that much more sick.

CONGORAN for argo7591 is the eighth qualifier. This one was eighth in the Fat Free Denny, so he was beaten by several horses in here, never a good handicapping angle. He’ll be looking to come from behind while cutting back in distance, as are several others with bigger and better class credentials. Looks like a tuff spot for this one, but what do I know?

Ninth is BRINGBACKTHEMAGIC for parrothead. This one looks a lot like Congoran in terms of career pattern. Success going longer in restricted allowance, and beaten last out in the Fat Free Denny. He’s cutting back and closing and conceding a class advantage. To me, it’s a tough spot, but what does a Deadhed like me know to say about a parrothead’s horse?

Qualifying 10th in the second half of the Buzzfarms entry, FALSE PROSPECTS out of the kak62farm outfit. This is a horse who has done plenty of winning, bagging a very nice 15 races so far in his career, but at lower levels than stakes, as evidenced by his career earnings of only $105,000. He won six in a row for Buzzfarm at the end of 2005 and his first race in 2006, but seems to have hit a little bit of a class ceiling at the N3X level. That doesn’t smell like a stake winner to me, but what the heck. Reaching that level is pretty darn good for a horse who once raced for a claiming tag of only $2,500.

No. 11 is TOM’S SHINING STAR. He was shining OK midway through last year racing at longer distances, but has fallen on hard times of late and would need a dramatic form turnaround to have any impact in this race.

No. 12 is CHEESE N MAC T out of the cashstable. This one has been consistently below the stakes class level, never hitting the board in 10 career stake tries.

No. 13 is the second half of the Stretch entry, STORMY. This 7yo son of Pulpit is a plodder if ever there was one, and is utterly devoid of speed out the gate. He’s got back class, having been second in a Grade I as a 5yo, but hasn’t been able to muster much in stakes company since then. Would be a surprise, that’s for sure.

No. 14 is TOM’S CRISPY CRUNCH. This one is in very poor form of late, and Charlie made him only 12-1 for some reason. Either he knows something or got to the end of his bottle, I don’t know.

In conclusion, I’m going to bed.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!