Renewing a Rivalry

Three weeks ago, in New York’s Wooden Indian Stakes, Rainbow Phil edged out a fast charging Globogym for the place.  Those two renew their rivalry as favorites as they meet 12 other three year old colts in the Grade II Chief Snow Handicap. 

Not surprisingly, with so many highly rated colts pointing to next weekend’s Bluegrass Derby, today’s contest attracted only four of the top 100 rated colts, and none of the top thirty.  But it’s a competitive field, full of promise.

Here is a look at the field:

1. On the rail, the lightly raced Space Invader (Java Gold x Nijinsky II) steps up to his stakes debut for trainer Fiat (15%).  Two for three in routes, he won his last race impressively and with the improvement you like to see in a young horse.  Continued improvement would make him competitive in this crowd.  A doubtful winner today, but a value at 21-1.

2. Cheiron (El Prado x Mr. Prospector) is the only one here coming off a stakes win in his last.  Has three wins in six routes, and just gets steadily better every race for the Super26 (15%) stable.  Was able to run down lone speed last time and figures to be near the early pace today.  9-1.

3. Rainbow Phyl (Rainbow Quest x Danzig) has tried four dirt route stakes and has four seconds to show for it, the last two in graded stakes, which gives him the highest rating in the field and the top jockey in F Gossett, who is winning at a 23% rate this year.  It’s not yet time to be concerned about seconditis – Phyl was a longshot in those last two races.  He won’t be today.  Veteran trainer Sam (15%) trains.  6-1.

4. The Prisoner (Ten Most Wanted x Risen Star) tried his first stakes last time and finished third with a modest speed figure.  SirBear (8%) saw something that encouraged the step up in class.  Let’s just hope it wasn’t one of those giant bubbles sent by number 2. 36-1.

5. Northern Tizzy (Cee’s Tizzy x Magesterial) tried dirt routes twice before.  Both times he regressed from his previous efforts.  Last time he made a terrible showing in The Tale of Two Places Challenge, losing to Mioro and every other horse in the race.  StLCards2 (11%) sends him out one more time in a route.  In his four one turn races this year he has two wins and two seconds.  13-1.

6. Mioro (Smarty Jones x Sakhee) made his stakes debut in that same Tale of Two Places Challenge, where he finished a closing second.  He now has two wins and a second in his three route tries, and his 99 speed figure two races back ties with Rainbow Phyl and Globogym as the highest in the field.  The Zielissimo (14%) barn appears to have a nice future with this one.  9-1.

7. Montebianco (Event of the Year x Storm Cat) has a chance to run away with this in a race that lacks much early pace.   Owns one win and a stakes second in three route tries.  Lost to Old Clock three back in his last try at a route.  Trainer Fernando (17%) goes for win number 236.  7-1.

8. Old Clock (Encosta de Lago x Rubiano) has been picking up checks for Pick4 (23%) like clockwork.  Has tried five stakes in his nine race career, and never finished worse than fourth.  None of the stakes were graded, but he has been right there against opposition as tough as this.  Speed figures are on the light side, but don’t be surprised to see him appear in the trifecta.  11-1.

9. Bearly Wanted (Deputy Commander x Seeking the Gold) faced many of next week’s Bluegrass field in his last two and showed he belongs with them. The deep closer out of Epic’s Wilko (16%) stable has a couple stakes wins and a pair of thirds in graded stakes.  In a race that lacks a graded winner at three, Bearly and Rainbow Phyl have a class edge on the field.  6-1.

10. Karem’s Bait Shop (Giant’s Causeway x Mr. Prospector) was consistently in the money in two year old stakes.  Since turning three he has been running in allowances and his speed figures still haven’t cracked the 90’s for the Super22 (19%) barn.  Never got going last time.  Maybe the normally astute stable is right and he needs a return to routes.  16-1.

11. Rude Boss (Redoute’s Choice x King of Kings) finished behind most of the field in an undistinguished effort in Malaysia in last and ships in for this for the Million (17%) barn.  It seems likely jockey Y Bower will remain winless for the year even after this.  15-1

12. Globogym (Pleasantly Perfect x Crafty Prospector) beat the number one rated Rhibus and another likely Derby horse in K’s Rumor Has It  as he made a furious rally in the Grade II Wooden Indian last time.  Did not quite get up in time to catch Rainbow Phyl for the place, but would have in a couple more strides.  The VMSDInc (10%) barn has him very sharp for this.  He would like to see a bit more pace in here.  Favored at 5-1.

13. My Business (Sarava x Mining) has three wins and a pair of seconds in his five races.  Trainer Roberto (19%) has patiently taken him through his conditions and finds this spot for his local colt.  Speed figures say he fits with these.  Indulge me as I recall my second biggest regret as a horseplayer.  I was waiting for the Belmont Stakes simulcast and was sitting next to a couple new to the races who were there hoping to witness Empire Maker’s triple crown.  I told them I really didn’t think it was going to happen and that in fact every horse in the field had a reason to lose.  Then I pointed out that the one with the weakest reason to lose was Sarava, the local horse going off at 70-1.  His reason was only that he had been beating up on weak competition.  Oh.  I had just been arguing that this was weak competition.  But I had already placed my bet, so I just watched as he went on to win.  So here is his sim-son: a longshot because he has been facing only allowance foes.  I may be wrong, but I don’t dare not choose him.  9-1.

14. John Butler (Hanging Road x Encosta de Lago) was competitive with several Derby horses two back when he finished third in the Grade III Giant Slayer, and he followed that up with another third in a wet Grade II.  But he looked just awful in the California Derby last time.  Trainer Quiggy2 (9%) hopes that was just a case that sometimes late runners just don’t fire.  13-1.

Morning Line Selections: 12-3-9-7

Timmn’s picks: 13-7-3-6