Seven Lives, Sky Low Low, Testing(IRE) faves for Guineas prep
Newmarket– The 2,000 Guineas is only a couple weeks away and this week’s $175,000 Craven Stakes is the traditonal last “prep” race for the Newmarket classic. The course came up firm, so the even-steven mile awaits……. shall we see a horse or two from this field test the Guineas? Or perhaps further on down the road? No clear “superstar” favorite, so it’s anyone’s event…….
The Faves:
5/1 – SEVEN LIVES (putitback): Tale Of The Cat son ranked 51st in the division, but the colt’s earned his due sprinter ranks, winning the Duetoburst(G1) over seven panels last season. Speedster tired to finish out of the money on Del Penn day, but that was over 8.5f.
Honest effort versus graded sprinting company this season before belting out a 101 SP# score when stretched to 7.5f LTO. Gutsy colt with loads of talent — trying to find his A-game. Could the flat mile be just the ticket? So-so jockey in the irons. A lot of question marks. Pace.
6/1 – SKY LOW LOW (jk52): Sky Mesa colt started out late as a freshman, but exhausted his conditions well by year’s end. Began ’06 with a thorough 2nd in the 9f Panhandle Park Derby(G3). Sandwiched in a sweet confidence-boosting mile stakes score before finishing a sparkling 3rd (beaten only 1/4-length) in the Chantilly Lace(G3).
Loved his stalker-style switch in tactics LTO. Had prior been a pace presser. Still learning the ropes, but top jockey might break him on through for a fabulous score. Very interesting. Dangerous. Stalker/pace presser.
7/1 – TESTING(IRE) (pg51): ’06 toughboy, winning the Frio Frio Mile(8f-G3) and Roasting Weanies(7f-G3) like a trooper. Finished 3rd, just missing winner Seven Lives in the Duetoburst(G1) last season. Still only ranked 31st in the division.
Hmmm… didn’t move forward in his subsequent race (6th in Kcusrocek(G3)), running same 91 SP#. This’ll be his 2nd try around two-turns then. Talented, but has something to prove….. can he be one of the division’s top horses? A win will make him so Saturday. Stalker/Right behind pace.
In the Wings:
8/1 – CELERITY (techranger): Sadler’s Wells son strung together a 3-race win streak late last season through ’06. His usual 80 SP#s though saw him finish a beaten 5th in Testing’s Frio Frio(G3). However, Celerity rebounded in the Dracula(8fT-G3), jumping 11 points to finish up a good 3rd with a 96 SP#. Hmm…… possible this colt will eventually enjoy 9f, 10f, and longer. Still learning the ropes. Well-spotted here though for another go at the flat mile. Pace presser/setter/stalker.
8/1 – GALLANT DANCER (coffee): Rail draw for this son of Sadler’s Wells. Just toss out the Equinics & Knick Knack debacles over yeilding surfaces and he has a pretty career going at a flat mile or so. Splendid jump-up to 98 SP# LTO, reeling in on the win. He’s ready for this level. Well-spotted for his return to the graded ranks. Should be there at the wire. Stalker.
9/1 – THIRD OFFER(IRE) (bewitch): Generous(IRE) colt out of average female family is a big overlay here. He won the All Your Base(G1) earlier this season over 9f in a stalker photo. He then went wire-to-wire in listed company for good measure. Blossoming. Should be among the faves. Top jockey in the irons. Pacesetter.
10/1 – MR. ANDERSON (sdmf6): Green Desert son “green” too, making just his 7th career call to post. Won first couple of starts on dirt before later testing grass. Sweet ALW victory easy as pie resulted with a 90 SP# around 6 panels. Closed well around 8f on dirt, so no reason to suspect he won’t do the same over the lawn. Green, but promising. Anything can go. Midpacker.
12/1 – CONSCIENCE(IRE) (larrydoyle): Fasliyev(IRE) colt took a while to finally break his maiden (though it was his 2nd try over the turf). Stakes-placed so far from 12 starts. Pocketed an ALW wire-wire with a 91 SP# LTO. Improving speedster in his stiffest challenge yet. Needs his best performance to date. Pacesetter.
The Longshots:
13/1 – SANDY HAWLEY (seveii): King Cugat son named after Hall Of Fame jockey. A stakes winner over 7f last season, albeit with slower SP#s. Adored two-turns as a 3YO and it paid off with him finishing a serious 4th in the Kcusrocek(G3). Good effort after setting the lead. Tough run might do him wonders and just love the two straight 90+ SP#s. This colt’s fit-n-ready. Should be tough to run down. Pacesetter….. but serious scramble in store for him Saturday.
13/1 – GREELEY’S TURN (ufsldowns): This Mr Greeley son loves the flat mile, winning two back in proper listed company. Toss out dirt debacle LTO. Granted, this guy’s bred for speed around sprints. Still, flat mile, might be well within his “superior range”. If he doesn’t do so hot, consider shortening him up again. Love him! My sleeper. Midpacker to closer.
17/1 – RAHY THE ROMAN (togasans): A veteran making his 18th career start already… yow! Rahy son finally found his two-turns mettle, winning 2 of last 3 at ALW level. Well distanced over 9.5f LTO. Average SP#s so far — needs career best in a stunning turnaround. Closer. Outside chance from post 14.
17/1 – STORM’S BUDA (kiwi): Dubai Destination son picked up a pair of 7.5f stakes last year before choking over 9f in the Phenom(G3). Mild effort since with lousy effort over off track LTO. Doubtful he’s at the graded level. Reaching. Stalker/midpacker.
18/1 – FANTASTIC MUSE (borden): Fantastic Light longshot won the Manofjunk(G2) last season over 8.5f and was among the top stars in the BB Juvy Turf. The colt finished 7th that day and hasn’t really recovered, finishing off the board in many grades since. Never know if he’ll turbocharge with cutback in distance (he’s been at 9.5f and even 11f LTO). Has the black type, but not the form. Outside shot at best. Stalker/closer.
26/1 – GONETOTHEDEVIL (gradetwo): Gone West son won 2 of last 4 ALWs, but with very low SP#s. Grade 2 placed earlier last year. Odds are that his numbers of late just don’t factor into the mix. Pace presser/midpacker.
Snowchief’s Picks:
Lots and lots of speed in this event. And loaded with stalkers too! I’m gonna go for a “sleeper” closer in Greeley’s Turn, though I like him better as a sprinter. Gallant Dancer has the improving goods to to hold on well at the wire (if not the win!). Sandy Hawley’s recent numbers pay serious consideration and speedster could hang on for a larger share of purse.
Pacestter Third Offer won the G1 and has the form, but his SP#s can be beat. Sky Low Low has the mettle to spoil my “longshot” trifecta. Testing(IRE) had a puzzling race LTO — will he show up to run his best race? If so, he’s a winner, but if not, it’s a wide-open contest……..
Since only Seven Lives has broken the 100 SP# barrier (and he did it in a sprint), I’m gonna throw caution to the wind, going with the longshots here………
Win: Greeley’s Turn
Place: Gallant Dancer
Show: Sandy Hawley
Good luck to all.