Texas Derby Wide-Open
It’s two weeks out from the Bluegrass Derby and eleven colts will line up to tackle the Grade II Texas Derby. The lion’s share of the $300,000 purse will go to the fastest colt over the mile and one-sixteenth “good”-rated dirt course.
Magical Merlin (Smarty Jones) is the race’s big name and goes off as one of three co-favorites at 5/1. The only son of a Grade I-placed Sadler’s Wells horse, ‘Merlin won five of six at two, with his only misstep coming in an oddly flat Breeders Bowl Juvenile performance. He looked on the rebound in his first start at three, the GIII San Somebody, where he closed to within a head of Toxicsuperfreakout, and followed that up with a solid run in the Equinics. His 98 speed rating there was a career best, but he never factored into the GII Arkansas Derby. Fifth-ranked, he’s not lacking in the points department, and needs only to show that he’s still interested in this game.
Empire Maker is one of the hottest sires around these days, and though he’s especially well-represented on the distaff lists, colts like gradetwo‘s Breeding Empire prove that he’s no specialist. The best son of a stakes-placed Seattle Slew mare, ‘Empire needed four tries and a stretch out to a mile to break his maiden. But he didn’t look back, was stakes-placed his next time out, and won the GIII Thousand Islands Stakes three starts ago, He ran evenly over an off-track in the GII Felipe Alou and while a fourth-place finish in the GII Sleepy Fan disrupted his Derby hopes, the 97 speed rating that he earned there commands respect.
Test Big Mac(Aus) (Testa Rossa) is a six-time winner in twelve starts, including two listed stakes at three. He made his graded stakes debut last out in the GII Easy Goer Memorial, going nose-to-nose with GI-winner Wylde Cat before kicking clear. He was outrun in the late stages, finishing third, but it was a gritty effort for a first try at such company, and Wylde Cat ended up ninth. This looks like a nice spot for the conservatively-handled colt to show and he may conserve his energy a bit better this time out.
But he’ll have to get past Uncrumbling (Crafty Prospector). Or more to the point, he’ll have to keep Uncrumbling from getting past him. Proxy‘s entry is the son of a GIII-placed Storm Cat mare and has been similarly brought up through the allowance ranks, including two fine races on “good”-rated tracks. He’s a closer who thrives on a route of ground and came flying late last time out to win the Easy Goer. The chestnut is the kind of horse that I like: almost always on the board and always running at the end.
Lenny3 looks knee-deep in interesting three-year-olds this year and will be starting Forty Niner son Burning Flag in the Texas Derby. The baby of the field, ‘Flag has started four times and never finished worse than second. He enters this race off an even-running second in an Oklahoma allowance for non-winners of three (this will be his first race outside of that state), where his speed ratings continued a steady upward march to reach 100. J. Turner takes the mount and has been hitting the board nearly half the time this year. The winner of that race was a hit-and-miss allowance horse and ‘Flag may be in for a bit of a shock, but he’s certainly a fast little beastie and an interesting choice.
Speaking of hot young stallions, how about that Mineshaft? He’ll be represented Saturday by Mine Go Easy, a three-time winner who looks to be rounding back into form after struggling at the start of the year. A long grinding run nabbed him third two starts back in a nine-furlong listed stakes over a “good” track. He followed that up with a punchier kick last time out and won another stakes with a 99 speed rating. He was overfaced in the Equinics and versus the likes of Half A World Away, but none of those horses are in this race and he’ll be riding high off those confidence-boosters.
Best combination name award goes to oneworld‘s Woodyna, a Woodman son out of a Dynaformer mare. The brown colt has won just two of seven (his debut race and a listed stakes last year), but he stormed home for third at long odds last time out in the GII Louisiana Derby, recording a career-high 96 speed rating. Young jockey J. Lucas takes the mount and has been having a solid year.
Storm Cat son Hubba Hubba has had one winner from four sim starters and that’s Bubba Jess, a five-time winner out of a Little Vagabond(GB) mare (which means he’s got ??? in his female family). His current connections pulled him out of a $7,500 claiming race last year and though he came to the barn footsore and indeed of a layoff, their patience was rewarded: he’s been three times a listed stakes winner and was third in solid company two starts ago in the GIII Gary Asher Memorial. That race was run over a “good” track and this colt may be a bit of a mudhound: his last win came in a listed stakes in the slop.
Nathndtroi‘s Italian Ice(Ire) (Street Cry) is the middle foal and second winner from a GIII-placed Seeking the Gold mare. He started his career on the turf but took a giant step forward when switched to the dirt. He’s won two of three thus far this year and appears happiest when he can cruise just a bit off the pace and get first run on the leader.
Goose Storm (Mongoose) has more mileage under his belt than several of these others combined. He’s run sixteen races in his short life, winning two times and hitting the board a total of five. A turf-to-dirt manuver and cut back in distance last time out led to a 10-point jump in his speed rating as he picked up a minor check in the Sleepy Fan.
And lightly-raced Dandelion (Spinning World) rounds out our field. The five-time starter broke his maiden in his third race with a switch to the dirt, then annexed an allowance for non-winners of two with a striking 97 speed rating. Last time out, he was third versus non-winners of three. This is an ambitious placement, but his top number does match up well.