Wide Open Field of 14 Try To Step Up To Ferris

“Favorite?…….Favorite?……..Favorite?……..”  Ferris Bueller’s Economics teacher (Ben Stein) in the movie could well have deadpanned that question in the face of the Ferris Bueller Stakes, the featured race in South Carolina on Saturday. A Grade III 6 furlong contest on the dirt for all horses 3 years old and up, The Bueller features a full field of 14, with the vulnerable favorite at only 9/2, and 9 others at double-figure odds. Should be a wide-open and exciting race. The horses by Post Position:

PP 1 – Smokey’s Bargain (Unbridled Jet x Regal Intention) is an interesting value at 19/1. This 5 yr old smokeybb bargain-bred is coming off of a very nicely placed effort in an ungraded stakes LTO, where he just faded near the end of the stretch. The one furlong reduction Saturday could help that. His speed figures aren’t going to scare many of the contestants here, but they’re also not too far off the norm. He likes to be near the lead, but he’ll probably have company with this group as well. Wouldn’t be my bet to win here, but enough of an intriguing possibility to include in exotics and/or a show bet at nice payoffs.

PP 2 – Palace Pancho (Palace Music x Pancho Villa) is another good box-car priced value here at 10/1. Trainer mred’s got this relatively lightly raced 6 yr old in great form, with some nice recent speeds and wins. The only issue is the class. This guy is not only making his first graded stakes try, it’s also his first stakes race of any kind. He’s got versatile tactical speed though, and while he seems to prefer just a shade longer, this guy could also make some nice payoff noises come finish time.

PP 3 – Heat Seeking (Seeking the Gold x Deputy Minister) has had his troubles recently for trainer bigmax3, running subpar Graded races 3 of his last 4 times out. On the upside, when he went back to ungraded stakes last time out, he came back with a solid if not exceptional 103 speed fig for a good show purse. If he can run back to the kind of race he had 5 races back (a win in the Collingwood stakes with a 110 SF), he can and will be one to beat. He’s got a good stalking/closing kick when he wants to, but he’s been reluctant to put it all together in a while. Without a big form reversal, for these kind of odds, I’d look to the number 2 horse before this one.

PP 4 – Seven Rivers II (Septieme Ciel x Danzig) is out of the thereason barn, and comes in with a lot of the same pros and cons of his fellows here: Some speed-flashing potential, but tends to crash and burn in stakes company, especially Graded stakes. If he stays interested and running with the leaders, he can cause some havoc with these, but barring an uptick in raw speed and turning up his entire game a notch, this one is going to have his troubles.

PP 5 – Troubled Waters (Miswaki x El Gran Senor) from the manowar camp, is next, in the 5^th post position. This one really depends on which Troubled Waters shows up. If it’s the one who ran past 11 horses down the stretch to win going away in the ungraded His Tub Stakes, he’d easily be worth a 9/1 bet. If it’s the one who ran a mediocre (to put it kindly) 93 and finished 8^th in a mid-level allowance race last time out, I’d run, not walk, from this bet. An interesting bet, with a lot of potential, but a tad too many question marks for me just now.

PP 6 – Cat Of The Tail (Tale of the Cat x Danehill) has been keeping good company of late (Last 3 starts have been Graded, 2 of which were Grade I), but the results have been mediocre (5^th, 4^th, 11^th). Four races back this 4 yr old from the graywolf3 barn found his groove and wired an allowance field of 11 with a scalding 111 speed fig. Nothing showing, however, to indicate he can do that with this kind of company.

PP 7 – Mr. Big B (Storm Cat x Capote). This 5 yr old from the sportnwood stable is certainly bred for stakes-quality sprinting, and he’s done fine at the ungraded level. But both times in his career that he’s attempted to move up to the Graded world, he’s disappointed, including his last time out (10^th place in the Grade III Burrito Grande Breeders Bowl). Could be nerves, could just be a class issue. But, on the upside, there are a LOT of horses in this field with exactly the same shortcoming, so there’s still a chance here. When he DOES bring his A game, he comes from well off the pace, and there are several early speed horses here.

PP 8 – Twelve Year Old (Fantastic Light x Northern Dancer) isn’t (he’s still a greybeard though, at 7 yrs old – maybe the computer named him after really good scotch), but the tenpin3 trainee is the morningline favorite at 9/2, and there are some reasons for that. Such as: showy record of 19 ITM in 23 races (11-5-3), including a place and a show in his 3 lifetime Graded efforts. He’s also shown flashes of brilliant speed, hitting triple digits in each of his 3 races this year, topped by a 111 three races back (all Graded stakes by the way). The distance is probably going to help him as well. His last three were 7.5 to 8.5 furlong jaunts, with a fade in the stretch each time. All that being said, there is some vulnerability here: His form seems to be going south, with his last two races showing slower speed figs than the previous race. The downtime might be an issue as well. He has shown a preference for shorter rest times than longer (his two best times the last two years were off of 21 and 14 days, respectively), and he’s been resting for 35 days this time. He’s a stalker/closer type, and with good racing luck and a solid pace, this one should still be there at or near the end.

PP 9 – Prince Rahy (Rahy x Alydar), from the ekspect stable, is yet another here with better credentials in allowances and ungraded stakes than in the Graded arena. A complete meltdown in the Grade III Count Fingers Sprint last time out (13^th place and an 85 speed number) doesn’t bode well with this group. Although, just like the bulk of this competition, Prince Rahy can run enough, and run late as well, to get up and get a piece of the purse with his best effort, but it probably won’t be top three money.

PP 10 – Crash Test Dummy (Smoke Glacken x Storm Bird) is a 6 year old horse from the mallard stables, who’s sporting a gaudy record (14-4-5 from 28 lifetime starts) against (like much of this field), very little stakes competition. At least lately. This will be ‘Crash’s first stakes race of any kind since week 1754. Like several others here, Crash can and does handle allowance fields very well, sometimes with scary numbers (he’s got 5 races where he’s been at or over 110). If THAT horse shows up Saturday, nobody will beat him. But he’ll need to turn it up some to do that.

PP 11 – Rasender Roland (General Meeting x War Chant) is the baby in this field, being a 4 yr old with just 15 starts. And if you like form trends, you might like the 11/1 shot this mabuse colt will give you. His last three races were each faster than their predecessor, his last two starts were a 2^nd then a 1^st last time out, both in ungraded stakes. He’s a true lead-loving sprinter, and with another round of improvement here, don’t be terribly surprised to see a wire-to-wire upset. But I also wouldn’t bet the farm on THAT much improvement.

PP 12 – Smouldering Street (Fool’s Pleasure x Graustark) comes from the magoo2912 barn, and is the longest shot in the race at 20/1. This modestly-bred 6 year old vet might be in a bit over his head. While he (again, like almost everyone else in this race) has been doing well in allowance tilts, he hasn’t been doing it as fast as the others here (his lifetime-best speed fig is 100, and he’s hit that once in his career. Still, he’s a trooper, and he gives an honest effort every time out. I’d need to see faster times though, to expect a piece of the pie for this one on Saturday.

PP 13 – Way Cool Jr. (Forty Niner x Peintre Celebre(IRE)) comes in with morning line odds of 15/1 from the sdmforlife stable, and he’s another one that looks like he might be in a bit over his head. He’s got a 13^th,  8^th, and 10^th place finish in his last three stakes races (all Graded), and he’s 1-1-1 in his last 4 allowance tries. He’s trimming back to a sprint after a number of route tries, and perhaps his tendency to back up over the last couple of furlongs will be helped by the shortening. Either way, his speeds don’t suggest much of a threat in this company, but stranger things have happened.

PP 14 – Smokentate (Orientate x Smoke Glacken), a koolaid trainee, comes in with some value (9/1) and some intriguing past performances. Like Rasender Roland, this is a young (in this field anyways) 4 yr old colt who likes to run out to a lead. Three races back, Smokentate held on for dear life to wire a Grade III field (in the Kentucky Colonel Stakes) at this exact distance. But he’s also been known to spit the bit and give it up if he can’t keep that lead. If he makes the other early speed call it a day first, he’s got a nice shot here. But that’s a big if.