The Sydney Derby

The day has finally arrived. The day when the current classic crop of marathon turfers put their credentials on the line in the quest to find the rightful heir to the crown of past winners and champions, Horseshoe Bay and Sunnybank Memorial. Can a horse in this field emerge from the shadow cast by those two greats of recent years, and go on and create their own legend. Fourteen runners have congregated from the four corners of the globe to lay claim to the being the best of their generation over the classic distance. Let’s study the pretenders to the throne in race-card order.

Current owner morrighan picked this one up at auction after his owner-breeder decided to wash his hands of the colt after a disappointing debut. A change of surface was all that was needed for the colt to show his true colors and he has subsequently gone on to win two stakes races. He was soundly beaten by Skills In Magic on his first run this year and would need to improve for the extra distance to turn that form around. I wouldn’t say that was an impossibility as he has a relaxed racing style but the odds are against him. As a footnote he would be his sire’s first graded winner in the sim if he were successful.

By Sadler’s Wells out of a Blushing Groom mare, this guy will see out the trip and then some. The big question is at what pace? He looked well held in his Derby prep by El Fredo and he seemed to lack a change of gear when it mattered that day. Definitely on the upgrade but this race may have come a little too soon in his development.

The first foal of dam Deputy Flanders who connections picked up in a claim for $75k. That is now looking like fantastic business; especially with an unbeaten younger sister by freshman sire North Light. He comes into the race with an almost perfect race-record, 5 wins from 6 runs including 3 Grade 1 wins in his last 3 races. If prizes were awarded at the beginning of the race he would be most peoples pick to finish top of the heap, however his last race showed him to be far from invincible. A neck victory over fellow rival Good To Be King was far from impressive and the sceptics are wondering if this son of miler Rock Of Gibraltar has the necessary stamina to see out the 12 furlongs. I have my doubts. He comes into the race with a similar profile to last years runner-up Jupiter’s Moons who found one too good on the day and I feel that something in this field will outstay him on the run to the line. Place claims.

By Rahy out of a Nijinsky mare, the omens are good although with Mr. Prospector on the back-end of his pedigree it throws up some doubts. The pedigree says 9-10 furlongs will be his optimum trip and his race-record seems to back up that prognosis. In his last race over 11 furlongs he was in front of rival Dragnipur until losing out to that horse for 2^nd in the final furlong. He certainly has talent but I doubt if that talent will be realized over Saturday’s distance.

The 2^nd foal of a mare that only had the one run, in a Grade 2 race no less, where she finished last and was subsequently retired?! Her son is compiling an impressive resume with 6 wins from 11 starts including a Grade 1 success over 9.5 furlongs. He races like a horse that will appreciate the distance and his breeding also backs up that assumption. For my money, the one to beat.

A son of Elusive Quality who looks as comfortable on dirt as he does on the grass. His chance depends on how you view his two most recent runs. A staying-on 3^rd behind Skills of Magic in his penultimate run gave encouragement that he might stay 12 furlongs, however in his most recent run he surrendered tamely when principals Creepshow and Good To Be King settled down to fight out the finish. Elusive Quality is generally not known for siring horses that get 12 furlongs so my feeling is that 9 furlongs will turn out to be his optimum trip.

Top-notch miler who prevailed by a half-length at the Equinics and has subsequently gone on to secure a G3 race over 9 furlongs. History teaches us that a horse with so much speed is unlikely to be able to last out against much stouter-bred animals and although he is by High Chaparral, it seems the Mr. Prospector influence through Conquistador Cielo is the over-riding factor in his pedigree. More than likely will hit the wall at 10 furlongs.

From the same connections as favorite Creepshow, this guy is out of a mare that was bred by Kingab. How he must be ruing his decision to sell off the mare when she was a juvenile. Still it happens to the best of us, in real-life the Queen sold off Height of Fashion to the Dubai Sheikhs only to see her go on and produce champions, Unfuwain, Nashwan and Nayef! But I digress. Run And Hide has a similar race-record to his more illustrious stable-mate Creepshow in that he has only once tasted defeat. I was personally amazed that a son of Silver Ghost was able to add a graded race over 11 furlongs to his resume but I do have my doubts over the quality of opposition he faced that day. He still has to put up some eye-popping numbers for me to become a fan and with only 4 runs under his belt, it’s possible the occasion may get to him. His career to date smacks more of excellent race-placement.

As a quirk of fate this guy is the first foal of stakes-winning mare Aasifah who was bred by owner Galileo. That owner has two runners in the race with Dragnipur and Lex Luthor. You can bet your bottom dollar he won’t be too happy if this one wins! Aasifah’s son was a perfect 3/3 before contesting the Sydney Trial but he was unable to keep tabs on the two that finished in front of him that day. I would be a little surprised if he was able to turn the form around and he will probably be contesting the minor places on the run to the line.

If you forgive this guy his one run behind Skills In Magic in The Brian Classic then he would have very strong claims. His last run was a complete rout where he annihilated the field before sauntering home unchallenged. If the same tactics are employed on Saturday then watch out! I’m prepared to forgive him that one bad run and he looks nailed on for a place.

The outsider of the field but don’t let the big price fool you. The son of Touch Gold was closing in fast on Run and Hide last time out and I don’t think there will be much daylight between the two of them on Saturday. At the price he’s a better punt than his victor. Unlikely to have the class to fight out the finish but won’t be last. Mid-div finish.

Going into the Sydney Trial this fellow had achieved little of note but boy did he relish the extended trip that day. Matching strides with hotpot Creepshow all the way up the straight he lost out by the narrowest of margins at the line. Perceived wisdom therefore is that wherever Creepshow finishes this guy should be right alongside him. If he improves even further for the 12 furlongs then he has a live chance. The only fly in the ointment is how much stamina he gets from sire, Smarty Jones, who was unable to score himself at the highest level over 12 furlongs.

Trainer bezza1975 is also responsible for that stalwart of the marathon turf division, Treasure Of Armana, who finished 8^th in the Derby De English a couple of years ago. He looks to have another horse here with which to go to war. Aarseth is unbeaten in 2 runs this year with an 11-furlong stakes success last time out. He’s unexposed over this trip and although he, like Creepshow, is by Rock Of Gibraltar, there is far more stamina on the dam-side. A nice punt at 22/1 for a horse that still could be anything.

Another colt by miler Rock Of Gibraltar, and a half-brother to multi-graded winner Rebellion, who is by War Chant. Curiously enough they both won the same race, the Apparently Juvenile-G3, as 2 year olds. Rebellion has proved to be at his best around 9 furlongs and I would wager that will also be the optimum trip for this fellow. There is little evidence to support that thinking but it is just my gut feeling.

Summary

To summarise I’m going to use the same strategy as my article on this race last year. No stakes win dismisses Gilded Touch and Good To Be King. Stamina doubts surround Sky Hero, Comiskey, Cortez and Listen To The Lion. I expect the winner to come from the remainder. Here’s my finishing order:

1. Skills In Magic
2. Lex Luthor
3. Creepshow
4. Good To Be King