Making the Derby Field
It’s that first Saturday in May; the run for the roses, the greatest prize in Sim racing history, The Bluegrass Derby. It’s all trainers and owners dream about when that newly bred two year old arrives in their barn. The opportunity to grasp immortality and have their name placed in the annals of Sim racing history. Such was the case of the previous seven Bluegrass Derby winners and their owners.
It was in 1999 when PHARRUN PROSPECT captured the first running of the Bluegrass Derby for trainer mpm12. Interestingly enough, the son of Distinctive Pro was a Computer owned horse back in the infancy stages of the Sim. It wasn’t until his 8th start that mpm12 took over the training duties, and five starts later, Sim history was created.
The year 2000 saw trainer fleurdelis snatch DOWN THE JAZZ from a maiden claiming race in his first start as a 2yo, then capturing the first two legs of the Triple Crown before tiring in the New Yorker, thus earning the distinction of being the only horse to win the Bluegrass Derby after racing in a claiming company.
It was in 2001 that simulated racing started to gain momentum and competition was at its highest level. It was capeside’s BUDA WITH A SLEW making Sim racing history when he became the first 2yo Eclipse Champion to win the Bluegrass Derby.
2002 saw perhaps the most imposing 3yo to ever step onto a race track, TOWER STORM, obliterate everything in his path on his way to setting a Bluegrass Derby stakes record of 2:01, while recording the fastest speed figure in Bluegrass history and becoming the 2nd 2yo Eclipse champion to capture the roses.
Just when you thought the excitement of previous Bluegrass history couldn’t be topped, along came I SEEK U in 2003 for trainer indy, to become the first Triple Crown winner in Sim history. So outstanding was his accomplishment that he earned the Eclipse award not only for outstanding 3yo but also Horse of the Year. Oddly enough he was the longest priced horse ever to win the Bluegrass at 11-1.
In 2004 it was roberto’s GRANHEE, equaling the stakes record to become the 6th Bluegrass Derby winner. He later went on to win the Travelers in an incredible 2:00 2/5 becoming only the 2nd horse to win the Bluegrass and the Travelers.
Who can forget the controversial champions4 and his outstanding 3yo ANTICOSTI. So impressive was the son of Unbridled’s Song that he carried a string of four consecutive Graded Stakes victories into the Bluegrass before dominating an outstanding field of 3yo’s to finish just 1 tick off of the stakes record.
The 8th running of the Bluegrass promises to be just as exciting, and although the Bluegrass has just a brief history, some very interesting statistics can be drawn from the most renown race in the Sim. Note that I found the statistics from the first two years to vary from the last 5 years of Sim racing, suggesting the progression of the game during that period.
FACT: The last five Bluegrass winners won their final prep while doing so with triple digit SP figures.
Of the top Derby candidates only PEACENICK, SO SLEW ME, UNAMAZINGNESS, and SUNDAY’S RULE have been able to accomplish that feat, with SUNDAY’S RULE still short of the stakes points necessary to make the field.
FACT: The last five Bluegrass winners had at least 28 days between their last start and the Bluegrass. No horse has ever won the Bluegrass that raced the week before the Derby
All of the derby candidates fall under this criteria with the exception of MAGICAL MERLIN, NEW FOUND CYCLONE, DEPRAVITY, REMEMBER TAMPERO, SUNDAYS RULE and VUJA DAY, all will have to go on less than 4 weeks rest.
FACT: EVERY Bluegrass winner had at least one 9f win before they won the Bluegrass
The exceptions to this criteria are HALF A WORLD AWAY, MAGICAL MERLIN, UNAMAZINGNESS, SUPERTOXICFREAKOUT, SAN PELLEGRINO, BLACK CLOWN, CLAN OF THE CAT, LOVELY SHEEP, LOCKITINEDDIE, AB FAB, ALASTOR, DEPRAVITY, REMEMBER TAMPERO, DARK PRINCES, TALE OF AUROR, SUNDAYS RULE, and VUJA DAY. That’s 17 of the top 25 3yo’s that have yet to win beyond 1 1/16.
FACT: Four of the last five Bluegrass winners had won a Grade 1 prior to the Derby. Only I SEEK U did not, and he has already proven he is an exception.
SUPERTOXICFREAKOUT, SAN PELLEGRINO, BLACK CLOWN, K’S RUMOR HAS IT, CLAN OF THE CAT, LOCKITINEDDIE, AB FAB, NEW FOUND CYCLONE, ALASTOR, DEPRAVITY, REMEMBER TAMPERO, DARK PRINCES, TALE OF AUROR, SUNDAYS RULE, and VUJA DAY, all have failed to win a Grade 1 race prior to the Bluegrass.
Statistics can be interpreted any way you want. They can be twisted and shaped to give an advantage to whatever particular opinion or criteria you might believe plausible. Some may argue that the Law of Averages prevail, while others believe there is a first time for everything.
So what do all these statistics mean? Perhaps they are nothing more than a bunch of stats compiled to convince oneself of an inevitable outcome? Then maybe there is something to historical data, and if history decides to repeat, then PEACENICK or SO SLEW ME have a date with destiny.