Fame Or Fortune On The Line

With the Bluegrass Oaks three weeks away, it’s do-or-die time for fillies hoping to secure a place in the starting gate. Saturday’s $500,000 Grade I Iool Oaks, to be contested at a mile and one-sixteenth over the sloppy main track, boasts a full field that features top-twenty fillies as well as some on the bubble and hoping to earn their tickets to Kentucky in May. It promises to be a competitive race and a puzzle for the bettors, with four horses going off as co-favorites at 7/1.

We’ll look at them from the inside out, starting with kyclocker2’s Fame or Fortune (Smarty Jones), who will break from the two hole. She’s got the classics in her blood, being out of a Seattle Slew mare. A six-time starter who’s never finished worse than second, Fame or Fortune made her graded stakes debut two back when she raced evenly over a “good” service in the Grade I Sweet Nanette Stakes. She must have spent her nights mulling that race over in her stall: next time out, she raced professionally and kicked well clear in the stretch to win the Grade II Fantasia Handicap with a 99 speed rating. She’s sitting at sixteenth in the sophomore filly classic division and her combination of tactical speed and patience makes her a threat in any race.

Genna Lou Hoo (Rahy) has made twelve starts for the marilyn847 barn, hitting the board nine times and winning four. She’s the only daughter thus far out of a winning Gone West mare. A multiple stakes winner at two, she took a bit step forwards at three and finished third in the Equinics and most recently made amends for a poor route try as a juvenile, second by a fast-diminishing length and a half in the Grade II South Dakota Oaks. Her 98 speed rating there was a career best, but she’s posted numbers close to it in the past that suggest it was no fluke. Most of her career has been spent sprinting, though, and she’ll need a very good race here to crack the Oaks field.

Zewango4 sends Wango Tango (Pine Bluff) to post, a daughter of an Affirmed mare who’s won three of six. Last time out, she was the front-running winner of the Grade III We Get Signal Stakes. Though she did show gameness in the Equinics (where she was outrun late, finishing fifth), ‘Tango is a confirmed speedster, and with a 99 speed rating under her belt and a graded win at a mile, and with a field full of deep closers (Punch Drunk T is the closest thing we have to a likely challenger), she’ll give this crew plenty to think about early on.

Armed With Money (Military) is the somewhat humbly-bred daughter of a Shadeed mare and has won five of eight for monksfield. She’s one of those closers we talked about last paragraph: in those eight starts combined, she’s been in front of exactly three horses at the first call. When she’s got a mile or more to work with, though, she can afford to wait and wear them down, and the 102 speed rating she earned while winning the Grade I California Oaks two starts ago says she’s got plenty of zip when she needs it, too. Ninth-ranked, all she has to do on Saturday is put in a nice workout, but she’s as good on her worst days as many horses are on their best. Ran well for third last out in the Grade II Fantasy over an off-track.

Unbridled Mistress (Awesome Again) is the first of two at 8/1. She’s the flagship runner for the fatattack barn, a four-time winner out of an Unbridled mare, and won the aforementioned Sweet Nanette. She seems to be a stalker by trade and reslished the “good” track in New Jersey that day; her 99 speed rating was a 10-point jump from anything she’d done before. But she backed it up with a 95 in the Grade II Fantasia last out, though she was fourth there, outrun in the stretch by Fame or Fortune and also by Wondergirl Elf. She’ll see both of those again on Saturday. She’s ranked fourteenth and would probably appreciate a bit of cushion and more importantly, to prove that her Sweet Nanette was no fluke.

Espresso D’Italia (Medaglia D’Oro) shares her odds and carries the colors of lasthope1, who bred her from a Miswaki daughter who’d earned $100,000. Big brother Island Resort (Deputy Minister) is stakes-placed and closing in on that same earning point, but Espresso D’Italia has surpassed them both, with better than $500,000 in the bank. She won the Grade II Mistaken Soda Identity Stakes at two, beating Northern Red(Aus), Biter Hollandia, and yes, Unbridled Mistress, too. but she’s winless in four starts at three, with her best finish coming with a big rally from way back in the Equinics, where she was second. Her speed numbers are ultraconsistent (95, 95, and 94 in her last three) and she’s always coming on late.

I’ve already mentioned Punch Drunk T (Two Punch) in passing and now we’ll take a closer look. The xtchamps trainee has thirteen starts under her belt and is the only foal from a winning Danehill horse. Ranked up near sixty, she’s probably in this race for its own sake. She was a listed stakes winner and Grade II-placed last year, but finished off the board in three graded tries in 2006. Last time out, she was dropped into the listed Well Heeled Memorial over a “good” track and ran evenly for second. She’s got a 93 speed rating as her career high and a tendency to push the pace that may cause her problems if she zeroes in on Wango Tango this weekend–but somebody’s gotta do it.

Five Points (Point Given), out of a winning Forty Niner mare, is a winner of four in seven. Lenny1 also has her two-year-old full brother, Forty Deuce, who stayed on well for fourth in his only start thus far, over a “good” track. Five Points was a listed stakes winner versus colts at two and annexed the Grade II Los Vinegrette Stakes with a nice patient trip two starts back. The Iool will be her first trip outside California in her young life. Her connections made a bold move in her last start, putting her up against colts in the Grade II Sleepy Fan. where she finished sixth. She gets a cross-country trip and a sex-restricted race as she seeks to improve her class ranking of twenty-three. Her numbers are half a step slower than the rest, but she’s kept excellent company. The nice thing about being based in California is, the good horses come to you.

Jades Treasure (Gone West), out of a Danzig mare, was twice Grade II-placed at two, but a well-beaten sixth on DelPenn Champions Day. Her first start at three was a lackluster seventh on the turf, but she exploded back into the Oaks picture with her followup race, an even-running second in the Grade III We Get Signal Stakes with a gaudy 97 speed rating behind none other than Wango Tango. She’s ranked thirty-first and thus is a bubble horse, stuck with the hapless S. Goganious for a jock. The big question is whether that last race was fluky, but the Iool will be her third race of the year and at 12/1, she stands to make a few bettors feel very clever if she runs right back.

I swear I had a sim horse a few years back named Troubleinparadise. This one belongs to simlee, though, and she’s Irish-bred, by Barathea(Ire) and out a Caveat mare who did good work in a career just eleven races long (she was a Grade II winner and eight times stakes-placed). Troubleinparadise(Ire) is by far the best of her four offspring, but all are winners. ‘Trouble has raced fourteen times–already more than her dam–and won four of those starts, including her last two, both listed stakes. Her speed ratings haven’t crept past 93, but she looks on form, and no time like the present to take a chance.

This is quite the self-referential field, and our other 13/1 shot is yet another horse who was mentioned above. That’s zeco1’s Wondergirl Elf (Danzig Connection), out of a winning Storm Cat mare. ‘Elf is the mare’s second winners from three starters and her older half-sister by Forty Niner is stakes-placed. Her best win came in an allowance for non-winners of two, but she finished up well while fifth in the Grade II Davola Dane South and while she couldn’t match strides with Fame or Fortune in the late stages of the Fantasia, she did display admirable grit in holding off the late-flying Hose Blower for the place. She earned a 96 speed rating there and like ‘Treasure offers an intriguing option if you think she’s getting good at the right time.

Amazing Discovery(Ire) (Galileo) makes it two for the Irish-breds. She’s the third and best foal of a winning Gone West mare, though the other two are both winners (her sister by Academy Award ran a big race last out and that filly’s retired full brother earned better than $100,000). ‘Discovery was third in the Grade III Santa Jezebel in her sophomore debut but floundered in the Grade I California Oaks, finishing ninth. She ran second in a listed stakes last out and tries her hand at keeping graded company again in the Iool. Her speed numbers will need a boost to pose any significant threat, but she’s a stalker who will at least be in the first flight to run at ‘Tango down the stretch.

Quality Material (Elusive Quality) breaks from the far outside, the only foal of a winning Our Emblem mare. The four-time winner has thrived as the distances have lengthened: she won a listed stakes at nine furlongs last out and closed well for third at the same distance in the start before that. She’s never broken 90, though, and will be part of a cavalry charge towards the wire. This may be asking a bit much, but this filly’s no quitter.

And rounding out our field is the horse on the rail, semi’s Black Pleasure (Stravinsky) at 22/1. The daughter of a What A Pleasure mare will likewise be cutting back in distance for the Iool; she won an allowance for non-winners of two at nine and a half panels last time out. Before that, she ran well for second at nine furlongs over a “sloppy” track. Another one who may be in over her head here, though speed ratings do show steady improvement to 91 last race.