Juvenile turfers tackle route distance in the Raul In The Car Challenge

Racing coverage returns to Virginia this week with the $50000 Raul In The Car Challenge. The race is a eight and a half furlong run for two year olds over the firm Virginia turf. With the road to the Breeder’s Bowl begun, and stakes points at a premium for juvenile hopefuls, this race has two more special perks for its strategy minded trainers. First and foremost, the stakes points earned go directly to classic division standings, the important division for BB hopefuls. Second, it will give there trainers a feel for how there babies will react to the longer distances they need to overcome to compete in the big show. The challenge drew six colts and two fillies, only one of which has any prior route experience. As usual for juvenile stakes at this time of the year, the odds distribution is very tight, with the favorite at a long 7/2 and the longshot at only 7/1. Should be an exciting race, the kind that Virginia race fans have come to love.

PP 1) Red Tie(IRE) Sired by Black Tie Affair(IRE), Trained by grim2k1. Red Tie(IRE) makes his sixth career start here, and his third consecutive stakes appearance. He carries a record of 2-1-0-2-0, with one win at stakes. This one will be well over his previous long run of six furlongs. He is a front runner, who has found himself somewhat vunerable to the closers in his shorter starts. It looks like he needs a good lead to be effective. His sire, Black Tie Affair is a strong stamina influence, though his progeny have generally been stronger on dirt. Blushing Groom on his dam side is also a good stamina influence, and his progeny seem to fair well on either surface. If breeding runs true, he should have plenty of stamina for this one, so the early break should tell the story. An uncontested lead could propel him to the winner’s circle.

PP 2) Northern Forty Sired by Strong Hope, Trained by jockeymax. Northern Forty makes a fifth career start in this one, with a record of 2-0-1-0-0 in his first four. He is on a two race winning streak, showing decent speeds while dominating in those starts. This is his first try at stakes level. His last start was his longest, at seven furlongs, and the added distance didn’t seem to bother him. He shows a definite preference for turf, and has been steadily improving in his races. He likes to run slightly off the pace, at the head of the midpack, and has shown himself to be a strong second half runner on turf. His sire, Strong Hope has shown a good turf upside, but being a freshman, hasn’t had a lot of progeny run at any distance. The Grand Slam x Deputy Minister cross bodes well for it, though. On the dam side, Forty Niner progeny have excelled at just about any distance, though they are generally stronger on dirt. Look for him to be poise to pick off some of the flagging early speed down the stretch in this one.

PP 3) Chaos Principal(IRE) Sired by Street Cry(IRE), Trained by super10. Chaos Principal(IRE) make only his fourth start here, and takes a step back down from Grade III level. He is 1-0-1-0-0 in his first three starts. His last start at six and a half furlongs was his longest to date. He has never been off the grass. He finished a disappointing sixth in his last outing, though he was closing in the stretch. He has shown flashes of what could be a brilliant close as he develops, and the distance here may be what he is seeking. His sire, Street Cry(IRE) has shown strong route tendencies in his progeny, though they shown a slight preference for dirt. On the dam side: Northern Dancer, what more needs to be said! He has more real estate to work with in this one, but he will most likely have more ground to make up over the second half, as well. If he closes like he is capable of, he has the potential to be a threat, and by the third call in this one we should know his fate.

PP 4) Rahy The Roman Sired by Rahy, Trained by togasans. Rahy The Roman makes a sixth career run here, bring a record of 1-1-1-0-0 to the table. This is his first start on turf since his debut, which was at four and a half on an off track. This is his second stakes start, and his longest career run by two and a half furlongs. His speeds have not been the best in this field, but he has shown a consistent close in his last three, tough the short distances haven’t given him the room to be a true factor. Rahy, his sire, throws turf routers, and already his two year old progeny have earned 12% of their money in routes, an impressive statistic for this time of the year. On the dam side, What A Pleasure is a almost exclusive a dirt influence, and about even on sprints and routes. The big question here, is what will this horse do on firm turf, with the extra room to close. If he can close on grass, he could surprise a few here.

PP 5) Pedro’s Giant(IRE) Sired by Giant’s Causeway(IRE), Trained by roar99. Pedro’s Giant(IRE) makes his fifth career start here, and is the only horse in the race to have routed before. In his first route try last out, he pasted a full field for an impressive three and a half length victory in a MSW race. This is his first turf start, as well as his first start outside the MSW ranks. That didn’t stop the oddsmakers from making him the slight favorite, though. He enjoys running from just off the pace and he showed in his last outing that he has the stamina to outlast and pick off the early speedsters at longer distances. Giant’s Causeway progeny make good routers, but have shown little strong preference for either surface. Storm Cat sons do have a tendency to be closet turf sires, though. On the dam side, Danzig offspring tend to be able to run any kind of race and do well. The question here is turf. He has proven he can excel at distance. The break should tell the story. If he can maintain the early speed on turf, he has a very good chance in this one.

PP 6) Cryin Shame(IRE) Sired by Street Cry(IRE), Trained by ajr14. Cryin Shame is the first of the two fillies in this field, making her sixth career start here. She is 2-0-0-1-0 in her first five, and makes her first stakes appearance here. She seems to fare slightly better on turf than dirt, though there is not a major speed distance. Her previous long is seven furlongs, in her last start. She tends to be a fast starter, but has had trouble holding the pace in the second half. From appearances, the extra distance won’t help matters. She is the second horse by Street Cry(IRE) in the race, a strong route influence. Nureyev on her dam side aslo lends strong stamina, with little regard for surface. She will need the biggest effort of her career to shine in this one, and by the first turn, we should know how she will react to the competition here.

PP 7) Easy Shard Sired by Aldebaran, Trained by epic. Easy Shard makes career start number five here, and also steps down from Grade III level. This is two furlongs beyond his previous long start. He is 1-1-0-1-0 in his first four, and his only win was on turf at six furlongs. With the exception of that race, his dirt and dirt speeds have been very close, and right around the juvenile average range at the end of preseason. He appears to still be trying to find a running style that suits him. His best starts have been just off the pace, but he showed signs of being to close from a bit deeper, at least on dirt. Aldebaran’s progeny in the sim have shown a preference for dirt sprints, though has a second year sire, there has not been a lot of route experience. Storm Cat on the dam side tends to prefer dirt as well, with a slight edge in sprints. His breeding is excellent, but it doesn’t look to hold him in good stead here. He will need a race like his maiden win to factor in here, and will need to show more stamina than we’ve seen in his shorter starts.

PP 8) PB’s Pride Sired by Vindication, Trained by peeps9. PB’s Pride is the second of the fillies gracing this field, and makes her fourth career run here. She is 1-0-0-1-1 in her first three, and is making her second consecutive stakes start. Though there are only three races to judge by, she seems to have a defeinite preference for turf. Her previous long is seven furlongs, and she won there in an owner restricted stakes last outing. She has been running just off the pace, but has shown that she could possibly like a deeper close. Her sire, Vinidication, has shown a tendency to throw dirt sprinters, but he is another second year sire, and those stats fit the available race ditribution, and may not be indicative. Dynaformer on her dam side is a strong turf influence, and shows slight preference for routing. If she can duplicate her last outing, she could be right in the mix here. Might be the best shot from the bettors point of view, at a longshot 7/1.