Spotlight Race of the Day: Saturday, May 10 Sweden Allowance

Focus is drawn upon a seven horse allowance field in Sweden and is filled with fillies and mares who are 4 years old and up. The race is restricted to non-winners of a race over the past three months. The race is on the turf and weather is cloudy but expect a fast turf for the 12 furlong race.

1. Vainqueur 13/1
Several horses in the field have been running speeds of 100 or close thereto. This is not one of them. After seeing a drop in speed from the 90-level in August, speeds have sank to the 80’s. A little more than a 2-month break was given to this gal between mid-January to late March and her return was a second in a $50k claimer, but speed was a cool 84. She returns to allowance level, which I don’t think will help chances, but what might help is that this is second start after a break. I think this will proof whether or not the seven year old can work her way back to higher speeds.

2. Hard and Dynamic 5/2
Listed stake runner drops into allowance. Last time she was here and on turf, she won three straight at this level. Likes to run on the lead but has been unable to retain top spot throughout race. Drop in class helps, as does speeds in upper 90’s and in 100 range. Extends out to 12 furlongs and two prior tries at long distance were not successful. Class edge but distance will likely hurt.

3. Belagua 9/1
Last visited winner circle last September and has had long drought. Speeds have been in mid to lower-90 range since end of 2013 race season. Finished third in three of last four starts coming in fields of five or less. Finished in top three spots in first 10 of 11 starts last year. Form has been off ever since.

4. Magic Moon 3/2
A strong running lady who has won 10 of 22 starts. Comes off two starts in listed stakes where she could not secure a win. Drops back to allowance where she won three of four between August and December last season. Speeds have been over 100 since September, 2012 with the exception of her last outing which was at 98. Look for a return to the 100 level.

5. Tete Erika 7/1
Three of last four starts were in listed stakes where she picked up a win but floundered in the other two. Historically has competed in well placed small fields which has produced a better ITM outcome. Still has been competitive with allowance group and can occasionally exploit the 100-speed level. Could be a factor in this group.

6. Tainted Witness 13/1
Gal likes to run long distances and has fared nicely in the money 19 of 24 starts. Looks to be well placed in weak fields. Lately has been competing with stronger horses and speeds have improved and probably more reflective of her abilities hitting mid-90’s. Will be tested further in this race with some talent that can top 100.

7. As Teofilo Weeps 3/1
3/1 odds are generally considered to be low odds and for this lady, they are pretty high. This is the highest odds she has been posted at since December 2012 where she was 5/1 (and won). Speed in last dropped to 93 (finished second and beaten favorite), lowest since February, 2012. Would be nice price for her if she returns back to form.

Magic Moon gets top choice and is one to beat.
As Teofilo Weeps I think will mount a recovery and beat out rest of field.
Teta Erika could snap out a piece of the pie.