Much to Like in Renewal Stakes
Even with many of the top rated three year old colts on the shelf until their next race in the Bluegrass Derby, there is plenty to like in the field gathered for the inaugural running of the Grade III Renewal Rates.com Stakes.
Nine of the twelve runners have ten or fewer starts, and the field has managed just one triple digit speed figure, but it shows lots of promise. There are early runners, midpack runners, and closers. There is the undefeated Parejo, the multiple stakes winning Remember Tampero, and the graded stakes winner Depravity to name three that should get plenty of action at the windows. But the field is deep and deserves a closer look:
- Despite his one for 11 record, The Great Wells (Albert the Great x Forest Wildcat) has picked up 34 stakes points by finishing second in the Grade II Mexico 2769 Stakes and third in an ungraded stakes. His form seems to be deteriorating, as the Lodog20 trainee could not find his rally in his last two. Maybe needs to try to sit closer to the lead this time. 18-1.
- Gold Banshi (Arazi x Seeking the Gold) showed an improved rally last time for trainer Dolphinman (12%) in finishing second in the The Pam’s View Challenge. He now has one stakes win and three seconds in seven tries. Needs to continue his improvement here, but it is within reach. Gets the number two
- Depravity (Red Bullet x Deputy Minister) has a lot to offer. The legitimate favorite is seven of 13 lifetime, including four of seven in routes. He earned the field’s highest speed figure in winning the Grade III Gary Asher two back, and that was an off track like today’s. He has four stakes wins besides that, including two more graded wins. He has over half a million in earnings already. He has a top tier trainer in Funster (20%). His jockey is, as always, dominating the
- With a victory over the highly rated Peacenik in the Afleet Alex Stakes and a respectable fourth in a very tough Grade II Arkansas Juvenile last time, Super Coverup (Squirtle Squirt x Forestry) deserves respect here. Troubling for the TaleofCat9 (14%) barn is that he hasn’t shown the success in routes that he’s had in sprints. True, the Afleet Alex was also nine furlongs, but in his other routes, he’s been fading – and his worst fade was on an off track. 7-1.
- Remember Tampero (Unbridled Song x Theatrical) hasn’t tried a wet track yet, but has known almost nothing but success on dry tracks, with seven firsts or seconds in eight starts. Trainer Triska (17%) has him closing from off the pace, including last time for a second in the Grade II Sand Castle. And three of the five who finished ahead of him in his one “poor” showing will likely be considered contenders in the
- Winner of a small stakes in
- Not surprisingly, Emily’s Best (Pleasant Tap x Western Borders) was not a factor when going against older horses last time, but the lightly raced CHBrown (10%) trainee was three for three in routes against his own age. Has a stalking running style, and if you ignore the last race he looks quite ready to try graded company. The question is did that humiliation toughen him or discourage him. The two stakes wins are nice, but he didn’t really beat much. Many conflicting signals here. At this price, it’s one of those times you place a bet and if he runs badly you quietly toss the ticket, and if he wins you point out to your friends all the reasons they were fools to ignore him. 14-1.
- The lone filly in the race, Old Giant (Giant’s Causeway x Seeking the Gold) has seven in the money finishes in nine dirt tries for the NoCalBred (13%) stable, so that’s good, right? But she has just one second in three stakes tries and has not finished in the money in her two tries against the boys in non-owner restricted races. It cost more to breed this filly in breeding points than I earn in a year (I am the game’s worst trainer.), and one senses some impatience from the stable. She does just OK in a stakes and they drop her down in class. She does well in allowance company and they move her to graded company against the boys. I would love to back her in her second straight stakes against girls. 14-1.
- Ditch Filler (Woodman x Turkoman) taught trainer TNilsson (14%) last time that he does not like the turf. What the speedster wants is an uncontested lead, as that’s how he’s achieved all three of his wins. With few speed figures reaching into the low 90’s and with the presence of the outside horse and perhaps others supplying early pressure, it looks tough here. 14-1.
- Let’s see. Parejo (Scenic x Housebuster) has won all four of his races, including beating a strong field in the ungraded Mammoth Limbo Stakes last time. He has the second highest lifetime speed figure in the field. Has a very game stalking style that figures to do well here. The SgtBones (18%) trainee tries graded stakes for the first time, and it seems well timed with many of the top 20 on the sidelines. He gets a very competent jockey. He even seems to like an off track. Sire’s get seem to like the distance. You think of a reason not to like him; I give up. 7-1.
- Drawing in from the Also-Eligibles, Royal Woodbine (
- I Did My Time (Kingmambo x Sadler’s Wells) had a big lead last time in the Grade II Sand Castle, but faded to finish behind Remember Tampero and others. That was the only time in seven dirt tries that the Sinner (11%) trainee did not finish first or second. Has a chance, with some luck, of getting an easy lead again today and my hang on. 7-1.
Morning line: 3-5-10-4
Timmn’s picks: 3-11-10-7