Time to bet in W.Va.

By ITCH

They don’t get much more wide open than this week’s feature at Old Waterford, the $35,000, six-furlong Mammoth Smash Special for older fillies and mares.

It’s a full field of 14 that Charlie the Drunken Morning Line Oddsmaker says is as wide open as can be. No horse will pay less than $10 to win, and the co-favorites, Shockwave6’s STANDING AROUND and Buxpasser’s TASSOVER THE BUX G, are 6-1. Further demonstrating the wide-open nature of the race is the fact that only four of the 14 are listed higher than 15-1. The odds tell us there are a lot of fillies and mares in here with a chance.

Let’s take a look at who’s in here. This is the kind of race that if you can put together a winning exotic combination, you can really score, parimutuelly speaking.

As always, we like to review the contenders in qualifying order, which reveals there are three big kingpins at the top of this field in terms of stakes points: FORTY SHOTS, ALBERTA T and the aforementioned Tassover the Bux G. They have 85, 60 and 52 points, respectively, and nobody else in the race has more than 24.

Greyghost’s FORTY SHOTS is No. 1, and has risen all the way to No. 9 in the distaff dirt sprint division in only 25 career starts. A 4yo by Red Bullet, Forty Shots loves the wet stuff, an undefeated 4-4 on off tracks, but catches a dry surface here Saturday. She also caught a rough break at the draw, and will break widest of all 14. She’s also missed the board twice in a row and in five of her last eight races. Those are the knocks. Here are the credentials: She’s won a grand total of seven non-graded stakes of this type, at no fewer than four different distances. That’s not a common thing in the Sim and it says a lot for this filly. One of those seven stakes wins was right here at the Spa of the Appalachians, back in week 2622. She’s a class filly in spotty current form. and has the worst post. She does have leading rider S. Tate in the irons. Mixed signals here at 7-1.

TASSOVER THE BUX G, out of Wassie’s Buxpasser barn, is not a contest horse because she is not in one of his three contest barns. This 4yo daughter of Tasso has more than half a million in career earnings in only 26 career starts, but believe it or not, she’s kinda tailed off here lately, and has only won one of her last 13 after beginning her career with a brilliant eight wins in 13 starts, including a Grade 3. Since then, her late kick has not been nearly as potent. Wassie’s searching for answers, and experiments a little bit here by shortening her up in distance from her traditional effective seven furlongs. Jocko is aboard and we know he likes to ride the late runners, but 6-1 seems like maybe a short price to take on a filly who is trying something new and hasn’t hit the board in four races in a row. We’ll be rooting for Wassie to get this filly going again.

OK, so the first two seem a little spotty, making this race seem even more wide open than we thought.

Third qualifier is Tcopyright’s ALBERTA T, who remains ranked No. 24 in the division despite missing the board in all four of her starts this year. It’s the toughest stretch of her very good career since she was an 0-7 maiden. Another negative is the fact that this filly hasn’t run a triple-digit speed fig in eight straight races. That’s earned her a healthy dissing from the Drunken Morning Line Oddsmaker, who sends this highly ranked, Grade 2 filly off at 10-1. She’ll have to turn it around to score at that price. She runs for the hyper-active tcopyright barn, who has started 39 horses already this year, almost twice the Sim average of 21.8.

Fourth qualifier is Shockwave6’s SPLASH AND GO. That’s a name that strikes us as a pretty cool deal when we’re sitting here watching our nephew doing some NASCAR driving on Xbox. (At age 7, Jared is pretty tough, but displays a slam-bang style of driving that is opposite of our more peaceful approach, lol.) This 5yo daughter of Touch Gold is another late runner, as evidenced by the fact that she is ranked No. 46 in the classic division, and No. 94 in the sprint division. She’s done more earning going longer, and shortens up even more here, cutting back to six panels after scoring last out at 7. Shockwave6 knows what he’s doing, though, hitting six winners from 38 starters for a 15.8 percent strike rate, which is hard to do when you’re starting that many horses. This mare is a model of consistency, as well, hitting the exacta in 21 of 31 career starts. When we’re handicapping in real-life, that kind of stat is gonna rate a big “GH” with a circle around it, which stands for good horse. These are the kind you want to bet on. It’s been a long time since she’s started a race this short, but she’s run good in her last two sprints, and like we said, she’s a good horse.

GOLDIE WOOD out of the martialis stable is next. This one is lightly raced compared to the other ones so far, making only her 12th career start here. She is very, very interesting here parimutuelly speaking, as Drunken Charlie can’t see past the recent speed figs and makes her 19-1. No way she should be that price, and it says here she is dangerous in this spot and could be sitting on a big race. After winning her second career stake in week 2594, she took the rest of 2005 off. It would be nice to know what happened that day. Did she get hurt? Or did martialis just decide to give her some time? Whatever happened, we like the way martialis is bringing her back slowly, probably on more a workout for that first race, then stretching her out for stamina, then winning last out in a conditioned allowance. I think there’s a good chance she’s ready to roll here Saturday.

Biggd’s NEVER START is next. First thing we see is this 5yo daughter of Jump Start, an AP Indy sire, is 11-20 in the exacta for her career, which makes her a good horse. Biggd tried an experiment last out, stretching her all the way to 10.5 furlongs in the locally contested Gold at Last Memorial. A lot of times in real life, it’s hard for a horse to recover right away from a race like that, but Sim horses seem to brush them off more easily. She’s got a proven case of seconditis in stakes competition, having been the place horse in four stake races. She does have more gate speed than the other ones we’ve looked at so far.

Next is Ritchie’s DIXIE CHIC WHOOPS. This 5yo daughter of Dixieland Band, one of our all-time favorite sires, competed almost exclusively in allowance competition until a three-race winning streak in the latter stages of 2005 propelled her into a victory in her first-ever stakes try when she made it four in a row. Since then, she was a close-up fourth on DelPenn Day, up the track at a distance that didn’t suit her, and then back to form while second last out in a conditioned claimer. Would be no shock to see this late runner hit the board, and Ritchie is a solid 16 percent trainer so far this year.

THE REVIVALIST out of the 42ndstreet barn is the eighth qualifier. This speedy daughter of Distant View is a win-or-nothing type, winning six races from 23 career starts while placing only once. So far, it doesn’t look like there’s much speed in here, so she may have a pace edge with her gate speed. This is a very interesting training job with this one by 42ndstreet. She was a deep closer for most of her career, but after six straight races out of the exacta last year, 42ndstreet shook her up and started sending her to the front, and he got her going. She’s in the best form of her career and has strung together four triple digit speed figs of her last five since switching her running style. Interesting.

IRON CREST for Ironmike2 is next. This 5yo daughter of Forest Wildcat makes her third career start off a layoff, which usually portends of a good effort. Ironmike2 gave her some time off after a long 2005 campaign, and this mare seems to be responding. That second-place finish last out in an Indiana stake is probably her best career race so far, having been no better than third in four previous open stake tries. Ironmike2 is very Sim tough, winning 19 percent so far this year. He’s got a cold 4 percent jockey in Feagles on here, though.

STANDING AROUND is the only West Virginia Stakes Competition horse of the whole bunch of 14, starting for Stretch’s smartjones barn. Ten wins in 18 career starts jumps off the page, and certainly rates the “good horse” tag. She’s bad news for any other speed horses in here, as she’s an official speed ball, only failing to make the lead in two of her 18 career races. She has faded to fourth in her last two races at this class and distance, but as we said before, there does not appear to be an overabundance of speed in this race. She could have things her own way on the front end.

Gordonlyn’s QUETZALCOATAL is next. This one may be worth backing on the barn alone. Gordonlyn is knocking em dead so far this year, winning a whopping 11, count em, 11 races so far this year at a huge 30.6 percent strike rate. The generous 18-1 line on this 4yo daughter of Capote is kinda weird because Charlie usually goes off recent speed figs,and this one ran a big 104 last out when taking down a restricted allowance with a big late move. She shortens to six furlongs from that seven-furlong race, so you gotta wonder if she’ll get going in time, but Gordonlyn knows best.

MINE BENDER out of the genesis stable is the 12th-place qualifier. This is one of only two in the race that doesn’t have a triple-digit speed fig either in best or average on Sinoboy’s entry checker. By the way, we always use two utilities from that great, great site in doing these previews: the entry checker and the trainer stats. Thank you, Sinoboy. This one is a five-furlong allowance speed ball that ran 14th the last time she was stretched out to six furlongs. Tough spot. Then again, Genesis is going just about as hot as Gordonlyn, winning nine races from 30 starts so far this year at a super duper 30 percent strike rate.

Speaking of super, lookie here, we got a Super stable horse here at little Old Waterford, qualifying all the way down in 13th. She’s FAN DANCER out of the super21 stable. Not unexpectedly, this is another outfit having a big year, winning seven races at a charming 23.3 percent strike rate. This 4yo daughter of Lear Fan is doing more than her share in building those impressive stats, as she’s three-for-three this year. She’s used up her allowance conditions with those victories, however, and now it’s into open company. What is interesting about this filly is that she is not the result of some high-priced breeding for which the Super stables are known. No sir. This one was claimed for $10,000 back in week 2468, and she’s reeled off 10 wins in 12 starts since then. That’s not outspending anybody. That’s just great Sim horsemanship. Whether she can win this one remains to be seen but she does turn the pace scenario on its head. The front end is hot now, good news for the closers.

Finally, we have GLITTER GULCH out of the crystalluv stable. This 4yo daughter of Gulch hit her career peak so far in only her third start, when she won a Grade 3 as a 2yo. Since then, she’s been badly beaten in her limited stakes opportunities. That being said, she’s not without a chance in here, because she’s won two in a row, with improving speed figs, and popped a nice 102 last out. She’s another 5 and 5.5 furlong speed horse, so forget what I said earlier about there not being much speed in here. There is plenty.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!