Virginia hosts Louisiana Justice Special

Virginia turns the track back over to the ladies this week for the Louisiana Justice Special. The race, for fillies and mares four years and up, runs over eight furlongs of firm turf. The prize at the end will be a $50000 purse. The race drew seven entries, ranging in age from four to seven years old. This one is truly a bettor’s nightmare, with three favorites going off at 7/2 odds, and three of the remaining four going off at 5/1 or better. On the other hand, you can box the top six and still be looking at a decent payoff.

PP 1) Ed’s Truck AZ Sired by Truckee, Trained by dunbar1. Ed’s Truck AZ is a five year old mare, and she makes her twenty fourth career start in this race. This will be her thirteenth consecutive stakes start, and she currently boasts two stakes victories. Over her last ten starts, she has run to a record of 2-1-4-1-1 record with one 100+ speed run. Her last start was a ten and a half furlong stakes in Ottawa, where she finished third, unable to hold off the closers down the stretch. She loves the grass, and her two career dirt starts have only served to reinforce her preference. The bulk of her career success has come in longer races, but while she hasn’t won at this distance, in her four tries she hasn’t finished worse than third. Her career best speed is also at this distance. She’s at her best running from just behind the early pace. Her close has been rather spotty recently and she might be wanting to close from a bit deeper. The shorter distance here should leave her with some jump in her legs. Don’t be surprised to see her making a play down the stretch here.

PP 2) Sexy Fox Hound Sired by Eagle Eyed, Trained by otto. Sexy Fox Hound is a well run six year old mare, making her thirty seventh career run here. She has travelled throuhg a few trainers in her time, and while no stranger to stakes competition, she still seeks her first victory at this level. Her last ten starts have earned her a 2-2-3-1-0 record with two 100+ runs. Her last run was a grade three outing at nine furlongs in Ohio, where she finished a disappointing ninth, falling behind early and never catching up. She appeared to sustain a minor injury in the race, but her trainer refused to comment. She spent the bulk of her early career on the dirt, but she made her preference known by winning eleven of her first fifteen turf starts, working through her starter tag, then quickly climbing through her conditions. Twenty of those turf starts have been in this distance range, and they netted her thirteen victories. She has been running as a stalker, and while she hasn’t done a lot of closing, she has hung close in most all of her recent starts. She may need a race or two to recover her form before she is at her best.

PP 3) Sotto Voce Sired by Kingmambo, Trained by sgtbones. Sotto Voce is a highly ranked four year old filly making her twenty third career start. She has five stakes victories to her credit, including a grade two triumph. Her last ten starts have resulted in a 1-3-3-0-0 record with three 100+ speeds. She ran in an eight furlong stakes right here in Virginia in her last start, where she finished a hard closing third. She has never been off the grass in her career, and with seventeen top three finishes in twenty two runs there was no reason to mess with success. This is her preferred distance range with her top speeds and the bulk of her earnings come right here. She is a deep closer, and at any distance under nine furlongs, her close has been quite consistent. She has the early speed here to set up her close, and there shouldn’t be enough breakout speed to hold her off completely. Look for her to be threatening down the stretch again in this one.

PP 4) Forlorner Sired by A.P. Indy, Trained by rocinante. Forlorner is a seven year old mare, and she runs for the thirty ninth time in her career. She has two previous stakes wins on her resume. Her last ten starts have witnessed her put together a 1-1-1-3-0 record, with two 100+ speeds. Her last outing was an A2n effort in Ottawa at eight furlongs on dirt, where she finished fourth, fading in the stretch after threatening late. She has proven to be quite surface versatile, with stakes wins on both surfaces. While her turf speed average is slightly higher, and she has her single best speed on grass, the rest of her highest speeds have all been dirt runs. This is right up the middle of her distance preference, having shown stamina to get out to nine furlongs, along with the speed to excel in long sprints. She runs mostly as a stalker, with some ability to close from mid pack. Her turf close has been quite good, and the softer surface seems to give her more purchase. She needs to time her break right and not turn it loose too early, and if she does, she could be dangerous here.

PP 5) Liberalia Sired by Seeking The Gold, Trained by woltereta. Liberalia is a four year old filly and she is making her twenty sixth career start in this race. She has five previous stakes victories including one at grade one level. She has garnered a 1-3-1-2-2 record in her last ten starts, with a single 100+ speed run. Her last race was a nine furlong stakes in Massachusetts where she finished second, closing fast in the second half. Her only dirt run was a grade one in New York, where her close faltered. She switched back to turf and hasn’t looked back since. She has been effective in anywhere from the seven to ten furlong range. This distance should be could for her, leaving with not so much of a gap to make up in the second half. She’s a deep closer, and her close has been quite consistent, but she has been finding herself in some deep holes in her recent starts. If she can manage a bit more speed out of the gate, the shorter distance could make her a threat here.

PP 6) Redheaded Cat Sired by Coronado’s Quest, Trained by champions. Redheaded Cat is a five year old mare, roundng out her career starts to thirty in this race. She has one stakes win to brag about gained in the midst of a four race winning streak about this time last year. Her last ten starts have resulted in a 5-2-1-1-1 record with one 100+ speed run. Her last race was an open allowance run at this distance on a tough Florida track, where she finished second after leading most of the race. She spent most of her early career running dirt, but her switch to turf gained her over ten points in average speed. Much of her early success came as a sprinter, but she has performed quite well here in the mile range with five top three victories in seven starts. She is generally a fast starter, amd her last three victories have all been wire to wire efforts. She likes to open up a cushion and hold on for dear life down the stretch. She faces some tough closers in this one, and is going to need every length she can muster. Look for her out front early, most likely leading into the stretch. Will be tough to hold off the closers, but look for her in the mix in the end.

PP 7) Down On The Farm Sired by Grand Slam, Trained by susanna. Down On The Farm is a four year old filly who is running for the twenty first time in this outing. She makes her first stakes run here. Over the course of her last ten starts, she has gone 2-1-0-2-1 record, and has no 100+ speed runs. Her last run was an open allowance at this distance in Jamaica, where she bested a field of nine going away. She has shown good speed on dirt, but with out much success, and has performed much better on the softer turf surface. This has been her bread and butter distance, with four of five career victories in this distance range. She is a leader/stalker type who should challenge the early pace here. She has had trouble holding on to her leads late, and she is not likely to get any kind of unchallenged cushion in this one to hold on to in the stretch. Look for her to challenge the lead early, but unless she can put out a better effort than she has shown, she will probably be fading badly as they hit the stretch.