The Last Man Standing Special
I think the race name was determined after the field was set for this one. Today, we will cover the final race on the card here in Oklahoma, ‘The Last Man Standing Special.’ I don’t expect that you will see Bruce Willis aboard any of the entries in the race and believe me, that is a good thing. This Grade III Stakes will cover seven and a half furlongs on the fast dirt for a purse of $125,000. Well, you’re not ordering a pizza here so let’s get to it.
(PP1 – 9/2) Army Of One, of the Jonsnow stable, is one of my favorite named colts in the field. Taking command of the inside post today, this Forty Niner X Storm Cat X Arts and Letters colt has won 6 of 13 dirt races, and finished in the money in 10 of those 13 races. In his sprint races, Army Of One has won 4 of 7 races and hit the board in 6 of those 7 races. A regular at the track in California, he has steadily moved up through the allowance ranks, and you know I love seeing a young colt mature like that. He has won 4 straight races, including both races this year. He has also won his only race here in Oklahoma so he is no stranger to the track. Army Of One has fired between a 99 SP # and a 108 SP # in his last four races. He has only one stakes race under his belt, but in his last out, he crushed the field in The Salty Boundary Bonanza, winning by three lengths and firing a 108 SP #. He is stepping up into Graded company for the first time today but he looks like a very hot colt and a definite top three finisher.
(PP2 – 7/1) Leica Bullet(AUS), of the Levers stable, is a highly raced colt taking the second post today. This Imposing Bull(AUS) X Mr. Prospector X Kalaglow(IRE) colt has won 5 of 19 dirt sprints. He has hit the board in 11 of 19 sprints and 12 of 19 dirt races. When Leica Bullet(AUS) can get to the front early he is a tough colt to track down. He wired the field in The Sir Deed Stakes in his first race of the year topping the field with a 111 SP #. No other colt in the field has ever run that high a SP # before. That race was at the 7 ½ furlong distance as is today’s race. The only thing that bothers me about his performance in that one – it was on an off track. The morning line must have the same mindset with him going off at 7/1. He could be there at the end again today, but he will need to prove he can fire a big number on a fast track.
(PP3 – 14/1) Khawaayev, of the Tapialeon stable, is one of the race’s long shots. This Al Khawaaneeg X Slew O’Gold X Storm Bird 4 year old colt, has won 4 of 12 dirt races and 4 of 11 sprints. He is another off track monster with 2 wins in 3 races. Khawaayev is coming off consecutive wins and has steadily improved his SP # each time out this year, progressing from upward from 92 to 94 to 106 SP # in his LTO. This will be his first step up not only into Graded Stakes company but also into Stakes company altogether. The odds are against him here as he faces a very tough crowd. If he runs as he did in his last out, this could be a very, very nice payoff. I don’t think the odds are justified. Maybe 10/1 but not 14/1. Don’t discount this colt.
(PP4 – 10/1) Gold Millennium, of the 2mstables stable, is today’s question mark. This Golden Missile X Dubai Millennium(GB) X Polish Precedent colt has only run in two dirt races, winning one. He is primarily a turf horse seeing that he has 16 turf races under his belt. Not only is the dirt experience a question mark, Gold Millennium has won 3 of 4 races on an off track. Again, today is a fast track, but the good thing in his favor is thtat there are a number of good off track colts trying to prove themselves on a fast dirt surface, so he will not be alone. He hasn’t run on the dirt since his first two career races. So this could be quite a shock to his comfort zone. One thing in his favor, he is very comfortable in Stakes company having run in 12 Stakes races. Today, he will be making the jump to Graded company for the first time. I don’t think Gold Millennium will fare well today. The company is very tough, plus he hasn’t run on the dirt in a long time. Add that to the jump to Graded company and I don’t see him hitting the board and he may not finish in the top five either.
(PP5 – 18/1) Lightning Of Dubai, of the Jarrod4 stable, is the long shot of the race. This Thunder Gulch X Dubai Millennium(GB) X Storm Bird is another off track monster. He has hit the board in 4 of 6 off track races. I think today’s trainers were expecting an off track with the weather forecast on the horizon, but this is the part of the country where weather can change in a heartbeat. Lightning Of Dubai has won 2 career races and the highest level win was a low level allowance race. He fires low to mid 90 SP #s, and has only fired higher than a 100 SP # once in his career. He has run in Stakes company before but has never proven that he can consistently compete. I expect he will be near the back of the pack as they finish today’s race.
(PP6 – 9/2) Sadler’s Gone West, of the Lostcode stable, is one of the most consistent colts in the race. This Sadler’s Wells X Gone West X Seattle Slew colt has 7 wins and 13 top 3 finishes in his 20 career dirt races. He also has 2 wins and 5 top 3 finishes in his 6 sprints. Sadler’s Gone West has the blueblood breeding lines and has not only Stakes experience but also Graded Stakes experience. He consistently runs upper 90 to low 100 SP #s. In his last five races, he has fired between a 99 SP # and a 103 SP #. He has yet to run a Stakes race this year but with his consistency he could be there at the end if the others falter. Sadler’s Gone West likes to close down the stretch so if the pace is slow he should have no problem closing on the leaders. I expect him to finish in the top five somewhere.
(PP7 – 5/1) Captivating Star, of the Jokerswild stable, has run the second highest career SP # of any colt in the race. This 4 year old colt is clearly running his type of race. He has won only 3 of 17 dirt races but he has finished in the money in 12 of those 17 races. He has also only won 3 of 14 sprints but he has finished in the money in 11 of those 14 races. This Aptitude X Deputy Minister X Smarten colt has a two 2nd place finishes and a 3rd place finish in his last five Stakes races. He is making his debut run in Graded Stakes company, but unlike a number of entries that prefer an off track, Captivating Star is running his type of race. I like the fact that he can fire huge when the mood suits him. He does have some inconsistency, though. Check him out in the post parade and if he looks like he is sharp he could bring it home very easily today.
(PP8 – 9/1) Fight For Freedom, of the Hills stable, is the other colt whose name I love in this one today. This Forestry X Mr. Prospector X Dixieland Band colt has won 5 of 15 dirt races and has hit the board in 9 of them. He only has 2 sprints under his belt but won one of them. The Hills stable was playing the forecast with this placement since Fight For Freedom won his 7 ½ furlong race at this distance in the slop with a 100 SP #. It was a high level allowance race, but today he steps up to Graded company at this distance. Yet again, another big time off track entry trying to make the transition to a fast track. Not sure if he will hit the board but could finish up in the top five.
(PP9 – 9/2) Ancient Warrior, of the 7heaven stable, is another morning line co-favorite. This Ancient Times X Meadowlake X Damascus colt is currently ranked # 93 in the Dirt Sprint category with 56 Stakes points. He has won 9 of 19 dirt races and 7 of 13 sprints. Ancient Warrior has only run at this distance once and finished up with a 3rd place finish in The Brown Brush Memorial his first race of the year while firing a 103 SP #. In his last 9 races he has only fired under a 99 SP # once. Ancient Warrior likes to run just off the leader. This is the horse to beat in this one today. I would be very surprised if he doesn’t finish in the top three.
(PP10 – 7/1) Bullion, of the Bewitch stable, takes the outside post which should not bother him since he is about 4 lengths back by the first call most of the time. This Gilded Time X Hansel X Nearctic colt has won 5 of 19 dirt races and 5 of 17 sprints. In his last two races at this distance, Bullion has fired a 104 and 105 SP #, winning a very tough allowance race and finishing up in 2nd in The Alone Reject Special. This is the deep closer of the race. He has proven he likes the distance. If the leaders run out of gas he could be a steam engine coming down the stretch. Very nice colt running his type of race. Very competitive placement here. Could be taking pictures without surprising anyone.
Bigbaba