Dark Princes Knocking On Top-Twenty Door
Coming into this article, I had big plans for detailing what impact this Saturday might have on the Bluegrass Derby picture.
Then I set to work on the math, and my brain melted down and started pouring out my ears. This article will be all preview; we’ll leave the larger implications for irisharse and trotter1.
So! The Grade II Sand Castle Derby, a $500,000 race for three-year-olds going a mile and an eighth on the fast main track in Dubai. A full field of fourteen will line up on Saturday, and the morning line favorite goes off at 6/1.
That’s Dark Princes (Empire Maker), from super27 of the high-powered super group. ‘Princes is knocking at the top-twenty door in the three-year-old classic division. His last three starts have been heart-breaking: three times second with a combined margin of defeat totalling less than a length. Last time out, he was the stylish runner-up to seventh-ranked Ermington Pegasus in the GI George Woolf, hanging well back in the early going before kicking impressively home. His young sire is off to a grand start; he also has the top-ranked three-year-old filly and two top-twenty older mares. They all seem to want a route of ground, and ‘Princes (the only member of this field to have broken the 100 speed figure barrier) looks to be getting very good at just the right time.
After that one, the oddsmakers can’t seem to make up their mind: we’ve got four, count ’em, four, co-second choices at 8/1, and I’ll tackle them from the inside out.
Ring Tone (Phone Trick) will break from the rail bearing the colors of corza5. The homebred got off to a quick start as a two-year-old, winning two of his first three, and wrapped off that season with a solid win in the listed Sister’s King Cap at a flat mile down in Mexico. The 97 speed figure that he notched there is his career best. The Sand Castle Derby will be his sixth try in graded company, with his best placing thus far coming in last year’s GIII Upper State Juvenile, where he ran sixth. He’s been a well-beaten tenth in two starts at three, both in very good company. A game little horse who never seems to quit, he’s moved up in the stretch almost every time out.
New Found Cyclone (Newfoundland) is the best son of his second-year sire and has won fully half of his eight career starts. He made his graded stakes debut last time out in the GII Felipe Alou Cap and rewarded ydrbargain‘s careful handling with a sharp second over a “good” rated track. He’s posted ultra-consistent numbers (93, 95, 94) in three starts this year, the first two victories on the turf. Ranked fifty-third, he’s got quite a bit of catching up to do, but I like the way he’s been handled thus far and suspect his connections have a plan.
Remember Tampero (Unbridled’s Song) will load next to ‘Cycle and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them meet in the future on the turf as well; ‘Tampero is out of a graded-place stakes-winner Theatrical(Ire) he-mare. Triska stables has had no need to go that route with the four-time winner yet, however. He broke his maiden at first asking and finished off his juvenile season with a strong second to Equinics winner Peacenik in the GII Remson Stakes. He picked up the pieces late in the GI Clinton Potts, but finished sixth, and was dropped back down to listed stakes company for a confidence boost last out. He wreaked merry havoc in that race, winning comfortably with a career-best 95 speed rating. In fact, ‘Tampero has shown improvement by the numbers every single time he’s run. Like ‘Princes, he could nose his way into the top twenty with a good effort here.
Kid Chino (War Chant) will break from the middle of the gate and can be expected to zip to the lead. The theoc2 trainee has eight races under his belt, and that’s the only way that he knows how to run. Luckily, it works for him: he’s failed to hit the board just once. He closed out his two-year-old season a narrowly-beaten second in stakes debut beaten just a nose by Ace King Suited, GIII placed since then. He’s been worked through his allowance conditions and stretched out to a mile in his last two, where he recorded dual 94 speed ratings and finished second and first, respectively. It’s anyone’s guess whether the added furlong will help or hurt him, but he’s lost ground through the stretch in every race.
‘Chino is unlucky, too, in that his neighbor directly to the outside is front-running 9/1 shot Tale of Auror (Tale of the Cat). The five-time winner from auror stable is out of a GI-placed Machiavellian he-mare and will be looking to attone for a lackluster effort last out in the GII Louisiana Derby, where the monster Toxicsuperfreakout got away from him early. That’s virtually the only blot on ‘Auror’s eleven-race career; he was beaten just a head in his three-year-old debut and followed that with a close-up third in the GII Fountain of Ute. It’s worth noting that those races both came over off-tracks, but he also ran well over a dry surface in last year’s GIII Pleasure Stakes. He’s equally matched with ‘Chino, at least on paper, and they should make things very interesting from the word go.
Also at 9/1 is dixiedotco‘s Heaven’s Gate (Pleasantly Perfect), out of a GII-winning Seeking the Gold mare whose first foal (by Rock of Gibraltar(Ire)) was multiply stakes-placed. ‘Stride got a bit of a late start at two; his first race didn’t come until they began carding mile races for the juveniles, and he’s been playing catchup in his four races so far this year. The longer the better for this one, it seems: his best race to date came two back in the GII Mexico 2769 Stakes at a mile and three-sixteenths, where he ran a solid closing third behind ninth-ranked Virtuoso. He struggled a bit over the “good” surface in the GII Felipe Alou Cap last out, recording a 91 speed figure but finishing seventh. This would be a make-or-break race for his Bluegrass contender status, but I have to wonder if maybe he’s pointing towards the New Yorker instead?
The thing about this time of year, with young horses developing so quickly, is that it’s not unwise to take a few gambles: they just might pay off. Thus tiramisu42‘s 10/1 shot, the spelling-challenged(?) Lemmonade Stand (Afleet). The colt’s only victory in seven starts came at first asking in a California MSW, where ‘Lemmonade battled the length of the race to come out on top. The top five finishers in that event have gone on to be at least stakes-placed. Since then, he’s been kicking around in listed stakes races and hitting the board nearly every time out. He made his debut at a mile in his last race, the Alyhawk Stakes, and ran second to dual GII-winner Northern Blast. This is a step up for him, but hey, when you’ve got a nice three-year-old, you might as well take a chance (or two).
Which seems to be the name of the game for the 10/1 shots. Crown stables brings Atlantis Found (Dixieland Band), second foal of a stakes-placed Unbridled mare. (Big sister Unbridled Thunder by Thunder Cat was a six-time winner and earner of just over $100,000.) ‘Atlantis needed three tries and a switch to the turf to notch his maiden win at two, but returned to a main track this year and won both his starts there, most recently an allowance for non-winners of three with a convincing 99 speed rating. That race was also his route debut. He’s shown early foot as well as the ability to stalk, and his consistent steady improvement means he might be an interesting play at good odds despite the big step up in class.
They don’t come much better-bred than sinner‘s I Did My Time (Kingmambo x Sadler’s Wells mare) and this colt could be the poster boy for breeding the best to the best. He’s started seven times with six finishes in the top two, including an allowance win last out at nine furlongs where he led at one point by better than seven lengths. His 92 speed figure there was solid, but he’s a confirmed front-runner who doesn’t seem quite able to hang on when someone looks him in the eye, and he’ll get plenty of that here.
Breaking from the fourteen hole is 1i6 trainee Three Day Bender, the second Afleet son in the race. The four-time winner started his career on the turf, but switched surfaces after running fourth in his first race at a mile. Given that he was still coming on late and that the turf came up a bit soft, he might deserve another try there at some point. But it’s hard to argue with his main track results: two wins and two seconds in four races, coming on strong in the stretch every time. Most recently, he’s the winner of the listed Turf Demon Special at a mile and one sixteenth. His numbers are a little low, but he runs like he’ll appreciate the added half-furlong.
Two-time winner Salutations (Fusaichi Pegasus) has already outdone his dam, who retired a maiden after her thirtieth start. Like ‘Atlantis, the third time proved the charm and Salutations woke up to win in his first race over a mile at two. He followed that up with a good allowance win and a listed stakes placing, but that train went a bit off the rails when trainer bookworm took a shot at graded company; in three tries, he’s finished no better than fifth (last out in the GIII Risen Star). He tried nine furlongs in his last race at two, the GII Rumson Stakes, and it’s hard to tell if he spit out the bit because of the distance or if jockey P. Lewis tried to send him earlier than he liked. A nice allowance and listed stakes colt indeed, but this field may be a little bit much. I wouldn’t mind seeing what he’d think of the green stuff, though.
At 18/1, Rastafarian (Red Ransom) is an interesting colt indeed. He hails from the glenys123 stable and is the first foal of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare who won ten of her forty-five starts. It’s hard to say if it’s age or distance that’s given Rastafarian such a boost. He broke his maiden in fine style at first asking, then languished in a series of allowance races, never better than six. He came back out at three, however, in two allowances going a mile and three sixteenths, and proceeded to win them both commandingly with speed ratings of 91 and 92. It’s a bit hard to know what to make of those races. Were they as good as they looked, or was he merely the only genuine router in the crowd? We’ll have a better idea after Saturday.
Rounding out the field at 33/1 is ghostly entry Who Is Dave (Elusive Quality), first stakes winner in four tries from a Seattle Slew mare (though her offspring by Seeking the Gold and Sakhee were both stakes placed and her Distorted Humor 2yo has yet to race). ‘Dave will try the turf-to-dirt manuver after a dismal last outing. Before that race, he opened up his sophomore season with an even second in an open allowance at a flat mile. His stakes win came at two in the listed Great Outdoors Special and he’s a front-runner or stalker who may be a bit outmatched in this spot.