Horseshoe Bay Faces Elite Field in Dubai’s Golden Turf

The Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic is the jewel in the crown for the older turf stayers, on this day, the EAAA equivalent of the Breeders Bowl. A race framed to find the best mile and a half turfers on the planet, the honour roll is ample evidence of its previous success. Another name will be added to the list this weekend, and the victor will take home the majority of the 2 million dollar purse put up for this race.

The history book tells us of the quality of horse we will be searching for when trying to find the winner this weekend. Previous winners of this event are:

            2000 – High Devil (devil)

            2001 – Cecil Roo (toplight)

            2002 – Joe Cayenne (rbgstable)

            2003 – Green Bow (mano2)

            2004 – Bristol Rovers (swampy)

            2005 – Rain God – (kevoman3)

Random Thoughts…Early Thoughts: I guess like many BTB writers, I like to do a little early homework after selecting my race. Once I’d been to the BTB forum, signed up for one of the few races left, it was time to start. First up to the race history to make a list of the previous winners, then a browse of the early entries to try and get a feel for what I am going to write. Yukk! Horseshoe Bay heads the entries….Game Over!….Why did I pick this race? What can I possibly write about him that hasn’t already been said a thousand times? What nice things can I find to say about the poor animals which will be left in his wake….Hang on a bit….Rain God is next one down….I wrote up his last start, The Pan American….He was the headline before that race, and wasn’t disgraced in defeat…Not hard to find a bit of good material for him. And what about the couple who finished ahead of him that day? Yes, they are both here….Rapid Grey ran a monster in that victory and the second horse was a real eye-catcher. There he is, Swingshift Sal, a bit further down the entry list. I gave him a fair chance in the Pan American and I loved the way he ran it out….this isn’t going to be so tough to write about after all. Who’s next…Bristol Rovers….gee,he won this two years back. He’s older than I am and must be getting past it by now. Better take a quick look at his recent form…WOW…better just sneak a peak at his lifetimes….Hey, this is really going to be some sort of race…Don’t know much about Dancin in Seattle, except that he always seems to turn up in these big races and tends to be under-rated. The next entry sparks a bit of interest….Why?….because chop stable have chosen to scratch Band of Budas if the track is off. This brings Dancin in Seattle subconsciously back into the thought process. Perhaps chop stable comes from Seattle….or Manchester…or Melbourne. You know, the places where the weather forecast is some sort of optimistic guess, and you expect it will rain anyway….This is Dubai….Dubai is in the desert….If the weather man says there is a 0% chance of rain, then it ain’t gonna rain….perhaps for months and months and months….I remember giving Colorado Force a decent wrap before his Pan American run, a run which had plenty of merit. And a quick glance at Confederacy tells me I’ll have no difficulty there, as he has a great family history, and that’s just about my favourite bit of this writing caper….Now, I should start to put a few words down on paper before I run out of time tonight.

Now that the full field has been announced lets look through the complete list:

Colorado Force has drawn the coveted inside barrier.  After graduating from maiden to Grade 2 winner in 2005 the seeds were set for a most successful year in 2006. He began the year with an impressive ungraded stakes victory, before lining up against many of those he’ll be meeting today in North Florida’s Pan American Handicap three weeks ago. He ran a reasonable race there when sixth, and although he made no inroads on the winners, he held his ground for a solid sixth, finishing some eight lengths behind Rapid Grey. On the surface disappointing, there was still a lot to like about that effort and highfive has obviously retained confidence in Colorado Force as the four year old son of Royal Academy / Idaho Force (Danzig Silver Hawk) continues in his efforts to place himself in the top bracket of turf stayers. We all thought he was in with some sort of chance last start, and we’ve no reason to change our minds this week

Barrier stall 2 has been reserved for Band of Budas. chop has raced this five year old homebred son of Tribal Rule / Affirmed / Native Dancer throughout his career and has prepared him for victory on thirteen occasions, collecting just shy of one million dollars along the way.  He’s won a Grade 2 and a Grade 3, both over this weeks distance, in recent starts but has failed to finish ITM in five previous attempts at Grade 1 racing. That’s the raw bad side of the form line. On the plus side is the fact that he’s taken home a minor prize cheque against big fields in three of those five runs. The barrier draw will suit his ‘drop out’ running style, so he should be able to settle back on the fence and save good ground during the race. It would be hard to see him challenging the top stars if they all perform at their peaks, but at his best he will give them plenty to think about.

Dancin in Seattle is due to line up at number 3. This lightly raced, five year old is a homebred son of Danzig from Senor Sea, a stakes placed, gender altered son of Seattle Slew / Fappiano. Coming from relative obscurity as a four year old, the eliza bred and raced horse struck a purple patch mid year when he took out 2 grade one events, The Louisiana Turf Classic and New Jersey’s United Countries Handicap. In the beaten brigade in those races were horses such as Bristol Rovers, Rainbow Moonshell, Seattle’s West and Ebro. Beating horses such as those proves he has the ability for this class of racing. His last eight starts of 2005 were all in Grade 1 company, and he took home cheques on seven of those occasions, underlining his consistency against the best. This year has started on a winning note. With victory in an ungraded stakes at his only run for the season to date, a return to his Grade 1 best will see him as one to be reckoned with. and a forward showing here will not surprise. He should have not trouble bouncing to the lead from this stall and setting the pace. He hasn’t been terribly well served in the jockey draw, but if he’s left alone in front he could prove very hard to run down. A hugely underated horse with a genuine chance.

Confederacy, from gate 4, fits squarely into the up and comer category, and looms as one of the main dangers, despite being held in scant respect by those framing the markets. A four year old son of one of the sim’s most solid broodmares, Confederacy is one of two graded performers from the Grade 1 winning Caerleon / Conquistador Ceillo mare Con Unit. His older half sister Congressional (by Storm Cat) is a Grade 2 winner with a Grade 1 second also on the form page. Constitutional, a lightly raced three year old Street Cry winner of two from five starts, sits alongside her successful siblings, contributing to the impressive dynasty being set up by dawgpound. Con Unit and her descendents look assured of ongoing achievements in the sim for generations to come. Now back to the subject of this article. Confederacy is a winner of 7 from 16 and over $600,000 in prize money. Graduating from maiden winner in early 2005, he ended the year with a bang, stringing together five consecutive victories, including two ungraded stakes at the end. 2006 has seen just the one run thus far, a strong second behind Bristol Rovers in the Grade 1 Equinics Lester Piggott. That type of run at his first Graded attempt virtually ensures a most exciting career ahead for this largely untapped colt. He could prove the value runner here, provided he doesn’t come unstuck in an early duel for the lead with  Dancin in Seattle, drawn immediately inside him.

Swingshift Sal jumps from 5, an ideal draw as he should be able to slot in on the fence and keep the leaders within firing range, preferring as he does to race just a few lengths off the pace. This five year old son of Night Shift / Roberto / Fappiano is always a threat in this type of event and although it is many months since he last scored against Grade 1 opposition, he’s been running in fine form and is showing no signs of slowing down. With 37 races under his belt, he continues to compete in quality fields and continues to justify the click stables faith in keeping him there. His last start second in The Pan American Handicap, when second behind Rapid Grey and after finishing over the top of the favourite here, Rain God, was as good a formline as anyone could ask for. The biggest concern for the stable may have been their inability to secure the services of an in-form rider, as J.Twenty is currently riding at only 3%. Swingshift Sal takes on the elite once again this week, and, given a half decent ride, is a chance to be thereabouts at the business end of the race yet again.

Bristol Rovers jumps from 6, the barrier of little consequence as he likes to drop out in the early stages. Adding depth, history and with an axe to grind, there is not a more fitting starter than this six year old who has tried to make this race his own. Disappointing last year, when sent out second favourite in the betting behind Sunnybank Memorial, Bristol Rovers has proven beyond all doubt that his run that day was an anomaly, and that he’s currently as good as ever. Is the race jinxed? Can it not be won more than once by the same horse? Perhaps we find out this year. Bristol Rovers won 12 of 15, including the 2004 renewal of this event, coming into last years race, and has won 7 of 9 since. swampy has kept this gallant six year old scratch bred son of Rahy / Danzig / Roberto at the top of his game for four years. He comes into this off a Grade 1 victory in the Equinics Lester Piggott and there’s no doubt he’ll have plenty of support in his attempt at dual Golden Turf Classic victories.

Horseshoe Bay needs no introduction. The reigning horse of the year proved, with a stunning win last time out, that 2006 is going to be as big a year as 2005. And years don’t get any bigger than last year was for this star. Six consecutive Grade 1 victories entrenched Horseshoe Bay among the all-time sim greats, and his victory in the Breeders Bowl Turf capped off a stellar season. Perhaps fortunately for his opponents, he has been mixing his form in his last few runs, but it would be a brave tipster (or an ambitious trainer of another runner) to expect that brief win / lose pattern to continue. This scratch bred son of Red Ransom / Woodman / Raise a Native has accomplished everything asked of texasace, and looks set to continue along his dominant path as he closes in on win number 15. He’ll look to drop out early from his mid-field gate, and with top jockey H.Harzheim aboard, will be sure to time his run to perfection. The odds makers may live to regret the generous 5/1 they are offering about this star.  Horseshoe Bay is clearly number one at this caper and the one they all have to beat.

Puppet Regime jumps from gate 8. Carrying superb bloodlines (Kingmambo / Nijinsky / Mr. Prospector) this four year old colt has been victorious on eight of the 13 times he has ventured to the racetrack. Breeder / owner / trainer wrecks2 has placed him superbly throughout his career to give him the background to fully justify inclusion in races at the top end. The only blemish on his scorecard comes in his two previous attempts at graded racing, which must be of some concern to his connections, but as he’s proved himself more than competitive at stakes level, there is nothing to be lost by facing the best. Beginning his career at three, Puppet Regime took three starts to clock up that first maiden win, a victory which was to signal the start of a six win streak, flying through the allowance classes and winning his first stakes race comfortably. The couple of graded failures (perhaps failures is too harsh, as he beat home as many as beat him) came next, then a return to stakes racing where two wins and a second ensued from his most recent three starts. Jockey T.Miller is currently riding in a superlative fashion, and is sure to settle him handy, without giving away too big a start. He’s picked a hard cast to overcome to remove the graded ‘jinx’, but his future clearly lies in high class racing.

Gate 9 sees Rapid Grey, from the champions4 stable, line up, and he may well prove to have got in under the guard of the bookies. This is a rising star. A four year old colt carrying Tactical Cat / With Approval / Bold Ruckus blood, he’s the current form horse as he comes here looking to make it five wins in a row. With the first two of his current string coming in Grade 1 events, there can be no doubting his class. His last start victory in the Pan American – G2, saw him leave in his wake horses of the caliber of Swingshift Sal and Rain God. Many pundits subscribe to the theory that recent form is the best form, and on that score, nothing comes into this event with a better chance. He’ll give his backers plenty of heart flutters as he drops out early, but nobody is in a better position to guide him home than G.Harmon, who is riding in stellar form this year. Fans of Rapid Grey are becoming accustomed to his ‘burst from the rear’ style now. His flying finishes have become something to behold, and we may well behold yet another one this week

Gate 10 is to be the starting position for Wild Trips. His current form doesn’t inspire confidence for this standard of challenge, but he was the winner of the Grade 2 Seventh King Eddie Stakes over this journey less than twelve months ago, so we know the surface and distance will pose no problems. The bad news is that that was his most recent victory and he’s been to the races thirteen times since. Wild Trips is a four year old son of the very capable, Grade 1 placed Sadler’s Wells / Pacific Native mare, Your Trips. Wild Trips, a son of Forest Wildcat, is the most successful of her four progeny, although older half brother Trips (by Polish Miner) managed a Grade 3 ITM finish as a two year old. Back to this horse, and it really is hard to disagree with the bookmakers here. It would require a huge form reversal to upset his more favoured opponents and his out of form jockey would appear to only add to the list of almost insurmountable obstacles.

In gate 11 we have Coominya Duds from the notbad stable. A more than handy multiple stakes winner, he takes a huge leap this weekend as he tests the graded waters for the first time in a career of 31 starts. Not many horses can boast the consistency of this cheaply bred son of Wharf / State Dinner / Our Hero, as since late 2004 his sixteen starts have provided seven wins, six seconds, two thirds and a fourth, figures any trainer would be proud to be able to achieve. The last 14 were all at this trip or further and the last dozen all against black type opposition. Whether he is up to racing against the absolute cream in one of the sim-world’s feature races is yet to be decided, but since he’s clearly forgotten how to run a bad race, he’s earned plenty of respect. Expect him to try and settle mid-field, and don’t be surprised if he’s up there close at the business end.

Arkansas You will jump from gate 12 in what is a mammoth challenge for this eight year old son of You Promise Me / Sadler’s Wells / Exclusive Native. The good news is that he comes into this with two wins from his last two starts. The bad news is they were a starter allowance and a claimer. He’s making a return start this week for the emirates stable, his original owner / trainer, after spending last year in the hands of three different trainers. Has he shown something enormous on the track in the last four weeks? Is emirates dreaming? My guess is the latter.

Last years winner, Rain God will jump from barrier 13 and will carry the enormous support of the huge band of favourite supporters. kevoman3’s five year old scratch homebred son of Rainbow Quest / Dynaformer / Nijinsky has finished no worse than third in thirteen starts stretching back more than twelve months. In that time his record reads eight wins (four at Grade 1), three seconds and two thirds. He’s been trained specifically with this race in mind, and has prepped for it with a strong win in the Mean Joe Green Classic – G3, followed up by a close up third behind Rapid Grey and Swingshift Sal in the Pan American Handicap – G2. He’ll enjoy the services of the track’s premier jockey, S L Ledwith, and will most likely be on or close to the pace for from the outset. We know we can expect yet another top line performance as Rain God endeavours to become the first ever winner of consecutive Golden Turf Classics.

The outside stall will be occupied by Montjaw. Although he’s yet to taste victory in a black type event, he brings good winning form into this, having won his last two starts in allowances over this type of journey. graywolf17 acquired this one from the geophysics stable after just five starts and has set about molding a solid career for him. Montjaw is a four year old son of Montjeu, from the gender altered, geophysics owned Caerleon / Honest Bullet maiden, Away on the Jaw. A perennial bridesmaid in the maiden ranks, he racked up five seconds before winning his first race at his twelfth appearance. The stable were not afraid to then try him at the deep end, lining Montjaw up in two Grade 1 events during his three year old season. He beat home half the field in the DUR Victorian Derby, before disappointing on the dirt at his last run for 2005, beating home just one runner in the I’m Still a Sophomore Classic. 2006 has been a mixed bag. Two ordinary runs at black type, before a return to grass roots for his last two successes. It’s hard to see him matching it with those at the top of the betting charts, but he could still be plugging away strongly at the wire.

Head on the chopping block: Reading through the BTB message board discussion this week (and didn’t Roys do a great job of setting the cat amongst the pigeons with that thread) it appears that several players like to read summaries and the tips of the writers. I’ve picked a ripper to try and handicap, but here goes. I’m tipping the first ever dual winner of the Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic will emerge this weekend. I can’t help but hold in awe the training performance which has maintained Bristol Rovers at the top for so long, so he’s my top pick. I thought privately after the Pan American, that Rapid Grey could well be the top ranked distance turfer by the end of the year, so I’ll put him in second. Only a fool ignores a champion so Horseshoe Bay gets third pick, but I feel I may be making a huge error in leaving Confederacy out of my top selections. Having done all that I’m quickly going to cover my back even further by stating that Rain God, Dancin in Seattle, Swingshift Sal and Colorado Force are all realistic chances of taking out the race. Band of Budas and Puppet Regime each have a rough chance, and with apologies in advance to the graywolfs, notbad and emirates, if their charges Wild Trips, Montjaw Coominya Duds, or Arkansas You get the winner’s post race write up, at least I mentioned them in the tipping section.

The bookies like:

            7/2 – Rain God

            5/1 – Bristol Rovers, Horseshoe Bay

            7/1 – Rapid Grey

            8/1 – Swingshift Sal

The computer likes:

            Horseshoe Bay – 1

            Rain God – 3

            Rapid Grey – 6

            Bristol Rovers – 7

            Dancin in Seattle – 8